The Roar‘s expert tipping panel is back once again with their tips and predictions for the 2014 AFL preliminary finals.
In the first week of the AFL Finals every favourite walked away victorious, in the second week it was all underdogs.
History says the underdogs have little hope of advancing this weekend, and if tipping redemption is destined for our experts, history will need to hold firm.
More AFL Finals:
» PREVIEW: Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
» PREVIEW: Hawthorn Hawks vs Port Adelaide Power
Can Sydney and Hawthorn both advance to the grand final that many believe should happen?
Or can Port Adelaide or North Melbourne become the first side from outside the top four to make a grand final since 2000?
Sydney Swans vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
Friday September 19, 7:50pm (AEST), ANZ Stadium
TV: Seven Network (LIVE), Fox Footy (LIVE)
Sean says: The Kangaroos might be able to run with the Swans for a little while but they will be unable to contain the Sydney midfield and forward division for a whole game. Plus they will have difficulty scoring against the miserly Sydney defence. Sydney by 60 points in a boil-over.
Cam says: Sydney by 37 points. The downside of a underdog fairytale run through the finals is that when it runs out, it inevitably means a lopsided game. North are in high spirits, which will hopefully keep them in it for a while, but the Swans have only lost two matches in the last five months. Sydney’s defence is stingier, their midfield has higher quality at the top end and bats deeper with it, and their forward-line boasts too many weapons. Hopefully the Roos can keep them honest for a while, but even their best form has been too patchy to give them any real hope of winning.
Geoff says: Sydney to defeat North Melbourne by 32 points. When the rain was threatening, this could have been an absolute contested-ball belter in the wet, and I’d have had North in with a chance. They should stay with Sydney for a fair distance in this contest, but in the end the Swans have too many options up forward and too much consistency in midfield. They’ll peel away late.
Glenn says: Sydney to beat North Melbourne by 19 points. The Kangaroos were clinical in their second-half dismantling of Essendon last weekend. However, the opponent it faces this Friday is a step-up in class. With a talent laden forward line that is likely to receive a constant supply, Sydney will prove too strong.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Port Adelaide Power
Saturday September 20, 4:45pm (AEST), MCG
TV: Seven Network (LIVE), Fox Footy (LIVE)
Sean says: If Port can continue to ride the wave of confidence they are currently on then this promises to be a cracking game. They will have to hit Hawthorn hard and hit them often if they are to win. The Hawks are one tough unit though with multiple options across most lines. Hawthorn by 12 points in a thriller.
Cam says: Hawthorn by 8 points. Port supporters should take heart from this prediction, as I’m yet to successfully tip them, as much as I have loved their run-and-gun approach over the last two seasons. The Power will bring the speed, the Hawks the precision in what should be a wildly entertaining match. Port probably has more individual match-winners than Hawthorn, and are playing fully committed football, but will the energy run out? The Hawks have been playing preliminary finals for years, and know exactly how to get through them, even if it’s often not pretty. They should again.
Geoff says: Port Adelaide to defeat Hawthorn by 18 points. Now that I’ve ascended to the top of this brutal finals footy tipping competition, the conservative option would be to pick the favourites and coast home. But that has no style. I’ve tipped against the Power twice and they’ve burned me both times. Surely I have to get on board.
I think that Port are back. They’ve got their belief, their run, and their attacking intensity. Did you see their little faces last week? Did you see Wingard and Robbie Gray? They’re riding a wave, and they have enough individual stars to stun a complete, well-drilled Hawthorn. If they can do Freo at the Winery, they can carry that to Melbourne in week three – close till the dying minutes when they’ll skip away.
Glenn says: Hawthorn to beat Port Adelaide by 26 points. After a week off the reigning premier will be primed and ready for whatever Port dishes up. For the Power to reach the grand final they must dominate the stoppages. The Hawks are one of the most efficient users of the ball in the competition. If Port concedes first use of it too often to Hawthorn it cannot expect to get it back too often. With the likes of Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis to contend with it is hard to see the Power progressing.
| Week 1 | Semi-finals | Prelim-finals | Grand Final | Total | |
| Glenn | 2 | 0 | 2 | ||
| Sean | 2 | 0 | 2 | ||
| Geoff | 2 | 1 | 3 | ||
| Cam | 1 | 0 | 1 |
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