It seems every time I predict a tense battle for the lead, one of the Mercedes cars suffers some sort of problem.
If Lewis Hamilton’s car isn’t on fire, Nico Rosberg is barrelling into him in a deeply uncharacteristic brain snap.
Singapore was no exception. A minute problem with a wiring loom led to a catastrophic failure of Rosberg’s electrics.
The race was Hamilton’s for the taking and the audience was robbed of the long-awaited race for the lead.
Rosberg’s misfortune is, at very least, a boon for these deprived viewers. The title standings have been reversed: Lewis Hamilton’s 22-point deficit has become a 3-point lead with five rounds remaining. You can stop licking your lips.
But the race to the flag in Abu Dhabi is missing a third element in this hitherto silver-coloured affair: the purple-overalled Daniel Ricciardo.
The Australian sits a so-so 60 points adrift of new leader Hamilton, perfectly poised to sneak home as per Kimi Räikkönen in 2007.
His first season with the (soon to be former) reigning World Champion has been an outstanding one, making himself the only driver who doesn’t have a contract with Stuttgart to win a race. Yet Ricciardo finds himself hamstrung by a subtle shift of attitude within his own team: Red Bull Racing’s sudden navel-gazing when it comes to team orders.
At the beginning of the Singapore Grand Prix, Sebastian Vettel sat 132 points off Rosberg’s then-lead, 60 points behind his teammate. In the race’s closing stages Ricciardo managed to reel in Vettel, despite intermittent battery discharge issues, and attempted a pass for second place. It would have earned him three extra points to put towards his underdog’s chance at the title.
Despite this, Red Bull Racing chose not to call team orders and allowed Sebastian to take home those potentially critical points. After the race, team principal Christian Horner noted that both of his drivers “have a mathematical chance” at the title, and that “it would be wrong to interfere with that” – advice rather distinctly different to that doled out to Mark Webber during his time racing for the energy drink brand.
Perhaps the change of heart is precisely because of this; perhaps Christian Horner and Co. are so keen to avoid the toxic atmosphere brought about by their mishandling of their former driver pairing. Such conservatism today, however, may prove deeply counterproductive.
While Ricciardo’s shot at the Championship remains a long one, Red Bull nonetheless has one driver within striking distance of a title and another merely within mathematical contention. Ferrari, the great emotional beast that it is, felt no such sentimentality when it handed Fernando Alonso victory over Felipe Massa in Germany 2010, despite the former being almost 50 points off the title himself – and he almost won it by season’s end.
More importantly, however, Red Bull finds itself with a Mercedes opponent seemingly teetering on the edge of self-destruction – two drivers, perpetually poised to tear themselves apart, sat in cars predisposed to chewing themselves to pieces in new and unusual ways.
For Mercedes to walk away from this season with anything less than both titles, 2014 will only be considered a failure for Brackley. Even having one of its drivers displaced from second place will mean it failed to achieve its optimum.
If ever there was a time to apply pressure, it is now. Enforcing team orders at Red Bull may well force Mercedes to reconsider its own free-to-race ideology – and imagine the effect team order will have on Hamilton and Rosberg’s relationship.
That’s the what, but now consider the why. In a fateful parallel, the 2012 Singapore Grand Prix shed some light. At the height of McLaren and Mercedes’ bidding war over his services, Lewis Hamilton, starting from pole, failed to reach lap 23 after his gearbox failed. This third DNF in five races was enough for Lewis to consider his future elsewhere, and his 2013 deal with Brackley was confirmed that Friday.
Sebastian Vettel is one of a few world champions with a key to this year’s driver market, along with Alonso and Jenson Button, each currently holding the only viable seats to which drivers of their calibre would want to move. The question is who will blink first.
It’s no secret that Vettel has had a disappointing season. It’s equally obvious that Ferrari has been quietly courting the four-time champion for some time. You could hardly blame Red Bull Racing for wanting to remind Vettel where his true home is.
Michael Lamonato is on Twitter using the deeply uncreative handle @MichaelLamonato
Frankie Hughes
Guest
Yeah odd results...Vettel 39 race wins aged 26. Let's see Ricciardo do that...
Distant Knight
Guest
And Maldonado won a race for Williams a couple of years ago too, you get those odd results thrown up sometimes. 9 times WDC hey... And you think I'm dreaming!
Frankie Hughes
Guest
Keep dreaming pal... Vettel won a race for Torro Rosso. Something Ricciardo was very going to do. When it's all said and done Vettel will be 9 time F1 world champion.
Distant Knight
Guest
Canada and Spa he definitely finishes 3rd even if the Mercedes have no issues, Hungary more than likely finishes 3rd or 4th. And Vettel has had some luck as well. Rosberg starting from the pit lane and Dan having electrical issues sure helped him in Singapore. Whichever way you look at it, Dan is ahead of Vettel on merit, not luck. Maybe if Vettel could figure out how to manage his tyres as well as getting on the power out of corners without the EBD from years past it might be a different story... Unless the FIA make some dramatic reversals in some of the rules changes from this year, or he lands a seat at Mercedes in the next couple of years,Vettel won't even get a sniff of another title at this point.
Frankie Hughes
Guest
Would he have finished 3 in the three races? Unlikely. Vettel's been compromised in qualification or races about 5/6 compared to Ricciardo's two(Australia and Malaysia)
Distant Knight
Guest
You're right, there has been an element of luck to his 3 wins. But that's not what you said. You said he's leading Vettel on luck rather than talent. Even if he doesn't get lucky in those 3 races, he still finishes third in each one, scoring 30 points less as a result. And that would still have him well clear of Vettel in the standings. That's without taking into account his bad luck in the first 2 races as well. Vettel is being exposed badly this year, as are his fans :-)
Frankie Hughes
Guest
Ricciardo's three wins: Canada - both mercedes suffer brake failure. Hamilton retires. Rosberg vastly down on performance gets pipped 3 laps from the end by Ricciardo. Belgium - mercedes is a class of their own, yet the manage to collide. Hamilton against forced to retire. Rosberg, with damaged front wing loses enough time in early stages, that lets Ricciardo inherit another win. Hungary - Ricciardo gets the benefit of the safety car, which cost Rosberg a certain victory. Ricciardo has had all his luck appear in his 3 wins.
Distant Knight
Guest
More on luck than talent...? I'm starting to think I'm watching different races than you Frankie.
Frankie Hughes
Guest
And the Red Bull had the best aero but was far from the fastest car
Frankie Hughes
Guest
Webber had the same car in 2010-2013. Webber bummed his chance in 2010. Ricciardo is leading Vettel more on luck than talent. Vettel will still beat Ricciardo this season 2015 will see the youngest quadruple world champion back to his best. FYI it's Brabham...try spelling the great man's name correctly if you're gonna name drop...
Second Rate
Guest
"Vettel is the man they’ve invested most money in. They can’t risk losing him to Ferrari or McLaren." And yet someone they pay a fraction of the money to is making Red Bulls Star Vettel (until this year that is, and I challenge you to prove different) look like and over rated brat. Yeah, good investment. They could have paied someone rent and board and they still would have won the championship in the car Red Bull have had in the previous few seasons. "Vettel doesn’t need to prove anything. His CV reads quadruple world champion." And yet again a Rookie paid the fraction of the money beats a four time world champion. If Vettlel was as good a driver as you believe him to be he would have easily adapted to the new standards and put Ricardo in his place. But guess what, its Vettel who has been put in his place. Even by your own admission, Red Bull has to support their investment, so with less support from his team and less experience in the F1 arena, Ricardo has still routinely beat Vettel. Doesn't make Vettel look very good. does it? Four times world champion means something if you done it in an equal or slower car, not when you do it in the fastest car by far on the track (unless you're like Braham and design/drive the car yourself). It just a simple fact of Motor Racing, one that seems beyond you.
Jawad Yaqub
Roar Guru
I'm sure that if the situation arises, Red Bull will be licking their lips at the potential to have a fifth straight drivers' championship (even if it isn't Vettel). But that ultimately comes down to if the situation arises or not. Otherwise it'd be unwise to sort of risk their resources on trying to capture this year's title.
Frankie Hughes
Guest
Red Bull Racing know where their bread is buttered. Vettel is the man they've invested most money in. They can't risk losing him to Ferrari or McLaren. Ricciardo, if he wants to win the championship, has to do it himself. Vettel doesn't need to prove anything. His CV reads quadruple world champion.
Michael Lamonato
Expert
I disagree - the team orders argument isn't black and white, it's dependent on the situation. Fans don't want Lewis and Nico to hold station because the Mercedes is peerless - there would be no competition for the lead. As for Ricciardo and Vettel, as I explained, one has a chance at the title while the other doesn't. The decision, in ordinary circumstances, should be obvious for a team used to winning the title. It's also worth noting I advocated for Vettel to pass Webber against team orders last year for the sake of the Championship.
Hutchoman
Roar Pro
The whole issue of team orders is becoming rather circular. Fans seem to want it both ways ... that is open racing when their man is behind, team orders when he's in front. I can't help but think this is a bit cynical around Vettel and the two Australians Webber and Ricciardo. When Vettel was clearly the better driver overall, we seemed to want open racing. Now Ricciardo seems to have the upper hand, we want team orders. Which one is it?
michaelh
Guest
Probably no team orders for red bull because vettel just ignores them remember?