Wow.
That’s the word on every rugby league fans lips right now, especially Parramatta fans, although the ‘f’-word follows for the Eels’ faithful.
The out-of-the-blue news has hit this morning that Jarryd Hayne is leaving rugby league and the Parramatta Eels to pursue his NFL dream. So beyond all the shock and hyperbole, what does this actually mean for both the Eels and what are the realistic chances for Hayne?
I’m a Parramatta Eels member and lifetime supporter, as well as a man who makes his living by analysing rugby league. I watch all 201 NRL games every year, some twice for research reasons. And I also happen to watch almost as many NFL games. So what of Hayne’s chances in the NFL?
Well firstly what position would he play? For those not familiar with the NFL, the positions in the NFL are much more rigid than in rugby league, and the roles much more defined and narrow. I can’t imagine Hayne wants to play anything but on offence with the ball in his hands, so that rules out playing cornerback or safety.
And naturally he isn’t big enough to play offensive or defensive line. The two most obvious positions for him are wide receiver or running back.
The talk about RB I think is misguided. RB’s tend to be nuggety, surprising small (usually under six foot, and some as short as 5’6”), and have explosive speed off the first step.
Hayne is much taller than that, has an upright running style, and while he has great long range running speed, he doesn’t necessarily have explosive off the mark speed.
As a WR he would be slightly undersized at 6’2”, but not too much. His speed would be near the mark, if a tad short. And would ultimately be the position that he would covet.
Learning the routes to run, and a seemingly never ending playbook would be incredibly difficult for someone who has never played the game. Every single player he would be competing against for a spot would have been playing American Football for their entire lives, and have already played at high level and under scrutiny at college level.
As supremely talented as Jarryd Hayne is, as freakish an athlete as he is, every single one of the current WR’s on NFL rosters, and those competing for spots would have been described as a ‘freakish athlete’ at some point in their careers.
I doubt he can get on an NFL roster as a WR within a year.
In my opinion (and also alluded to by Hayne in his press conference) his best chance is as a kick/punt returner on what is known in NFL as ‘special teams’.
The role is somewhat similar to fullback in rugby league. You stand out the back and field punts and kickoffs, and sometimes run the ball back. The role of kick returner has greatly diminished in recent times, with far more often than not the job being purely to make a clean catch on the ball (which Hayne excels at!) and not run back at all.
For those not familiar with the NFL you would be astounded at how limited this role is. You could quite comfortably be the no.1 kick returner on the team and touch the ball only a handful of times in a game, and actually run the ball back only one to three times a game. On many occasions it’s zero times a game.
Given how clean his hands are, Hayne may have a legitimate shot at this role. His speed and ability to break a tackle or side step give him a chance.
This would be his best shot at finding his way onto an NFL roster. And from there you may be given the chance to have a few snaps at training at WR to possibly play the position down the track. Even then, you may be only the fourth or fifth choice WR on the team, and perhaps play only a few plays a game.
I’m a big Jarryd Hayne fan, have seen every first grade game he has ever played, and have huge respect for his ability.
Do I think he can make it in the NFL? Probably not.
It is extremely cutthroat and competitive over there for roster spots. I think at this stage there’s next to no chance of him being a star/big time player in the NFL, but I concede he could make it onto a roster as a special teams player.
While in the AFL the likes of code hoppers Karmichael Hunt and Israel Folau have been signed purely for a marketing perspective, I highly doubt that will happen in the NFL.
They just don’t need it.
The fact he is a ‘project player’ with some additional marketing clout for a broader audience may help him if he is borderline for a spot, but it really is a big if.
And what of Parramatta? After making a big step forward last year after back-to-back spoons, it can’t be denied that this is a massive blow to Parramatta. No single player in the game is more important or influential to their team than Jarryd Hayne is to Parramatta.
Not Johnathan Thurston, not Cameron Smith, not Sam Burgess.
Parramatta has often been called a one-player team, and while cruel, it’s not too far off the mark. Fortunately there are a few high-level fullbacks possibly available this late in the recruiting piece.
Josh Hoffman has been granted a release from Brisbane if he can get a gig elsewhere, Brett Stewart is trying to get a release from Manly, there has been talk of Brisbane letting go of Ben Barba with their glut of fullbacks. There’s even talk of Israel Folau or Kurtley Beale leaving union, and Izzy has previously been linked to the Eels, almost signing, and his younger brother currently plays in the under 20s team, so it may not be so far-fetched.
Parramatta must get one of these high profile players to be a chance next year. Josh Hoffman seems the most likely as he has already been granted a release if he wants it. He would come the cheapest of all those mentioned, as he comes off an ordinary season (which was purely because Anthony Griffin played him in the wrong position at five-eighth) and is unwanted.
He would be a good bet given his price, youth and upside. Plus the difference in his salary against Hayne’s would be massive so Parramatta could bring in other players to sure up other areas of weakness.
Brett Stewart is coming off a fantastic 2014, and an underrated one too. He would be a great pickup, but is closer to the end of his career and would come with a higher paycheck.
Ben Barba is coming off a horror year, which is purely his own making, and unless you can get him at a discount rate or have real strong belief that he can return to previous highs, he should be avoided at all costs.
Izzy is a completely different proposition, as the ability to get him is probably very low. But to rebound from the loss of Hayne with a player of almost the same stature would be a massive coup.
Beale is a greater risk, a potential problem child with no guarantee he would be a success in rugby league.
News has come through this morning that Parramatta has signed Canberra winger and occasional fullback Reece Robinson, and while a handy player, he isn’t the answer in the fullback jersey.
I can imagine some talk of Corey Norman returning to the fullback role he played at Brisbane, but coming off an ineffectual first year for the Eels, he needs to keep his current spot first, rather than switching.
Either way you slice it, it’s an enormous blow to the Eels, and knocks them down several pegs for 2015. They need to grab a high profile fullback as replacement and look for the silver lining of using the excess funds for add a quality player in another position to ease the Hayne blow.
steveng
Roar Rookie
He's too big for a RB (running back) and not fast enough off the mark, he's only chance is to be a WR (wide receiver) to which he's a bit too short, he could make it but as long as all his skills are acceptable for a WR and he learns the game. In my view Jarryd will try out and will be a great WR and as I write this post (10 Aug 2015), but judging by what he is doing at the 49rs, and he has just finished a training run and did score a touchdown. Hayne’s touchdown run was just before practice ended, it resembled a hard-earned, rugby league try and was a very well executed and run try, especially when he survived his first crushing tackle of 49ers training camp Sunday, then he returned a few plays later with an inspiring touchdown run through a sea of defenders.
Shane D
Roar Rookie
You have made a great case as to why it will be so hard for Hayne to succeed. Foster is so good because he instinctively knows can where & when to run & that makes up for his lack of top end speed. Fitzgerald, Welker are dominant in their positions because of their ability to run precise routes & get open. Hayne is going into the game with none of those inherent skills that these players have learnt playing the game all of their lives. I read an article the other day that pointed out that Hayne is coming to the game with some probable skills but will be competing for spots on teams with college players who have spent the last 3 or 4 years proving they have the same skills. Teams have limited spots on their rosters & teams generally don't 'have a punt on a player'. I'm not having a go & Haynes ability as an athlete as I think that a NFL player with no league experience would have the same problems trying to make it as a NRL player.
Shane D
Roar Rookie
Because you punt on 4th down & if you stuff up you give away field position. Watch the game, often punter only just get the ball away before the edge rushers get to them.
Shane D
Roar Rookie
He will struggle in pass protection for either of those spots. He might be a role player but it would be a big ask for a team to sign a totally unproven 26 year old rookie as a single down back or TE. Roster spots are just to valuable.
Shane D
Roar Rookie
JGK - the top WR's in the NFL run around 10.2's or lower for the 100, that's a whole lot quicker than Haynes.
riot
Guest
The minimum salary for an NFL rookie is under 500k, if he only gets signed to a practice squad, it's even less. Every year you've been in the league, your minimum wage goes up, but if he plays for 10 years at minimum wage, he'd still be earning under what he'd get paid in league today.
Kevin dustby
Guest
Rugby league is dying?
Damo
Guest
Roger Goodell might care. Agree with all your other points though.
Chris morrison
Guest
Full of applause on Haynes decision to leave. Rugby league is dying, Hayne is obviously an NFL fan and wants to give it a crack. He will only be considered as a special teams player. Punt return, kick return and make no mistake he would be great at it. However, as someone has already pointed out, no NFL team will carry a player to just play kick return. He must have a secondary position and unfortunately I do not believe he is suited to any other position. Maybe he will prove us wrong. I doubt he would leave without having a way in. Even if its a small chance if an in. Hayne was over there recently wasn't he? Training with an NFL team or something.... Maybe they have said they will give him a shot.
Chris morrison
Guest
Full of applause on Haynes decision to leave. Rugby league is dying, Hayne is obviously an NFL fan and wants to give it a crack. He will only be considered as a special teams player. Punt return, kick return and make no mistake he would be great at it. However, as someone has already pointed out, no NFL team will carry a player to just play kick return. He must have a secondary position and unfortunately I do not believe he is suited to any other position. Maybe he will prove us wrong. I doubt he would leave without having a way in. Even if its a small chance if an in. Hayne was over there recently wasn't he? Training with an NFL team or something.... Maybe they have said they will give him a shot.
Toa
Guest
Opportunity, obviously Jarred never play the game before however he’s got the tools, all he needs is an opportunity. He’ll certainly need a franchise to buy into what Hayne can offer & IMO he’s worth the investment. Haynes is small fish in a huge Polynesian pedigree pond. What in the world does that mean? Technically nothing however culturally it’s everything. There are so many thousand American born Pacific Island Boys vying for high school & colligate positions the support network from the Islander communities will assist in the transition. IMO the key to any successful transition is the enjoyment of the challenge, which encompasses adversity to deal with negative forces. Prediction - Oakland Raiders - special teams - kick return daylight specialist
Armchair Expert
Guest
They love AFL punters but Hayne may make a good conversion and 3 point kicker if he can master the different shaped ball.
JayBob
Guest
How is he undersized at 6'2? It would be nice if you gave information on average heights/weights for various positions. Anyhow, a quick google shows that is average or above average for WR. Some sites have only 5'11 and 84kg. Most have between 6' and 6'3. Hayne is 6"2 and 100kg. Also, he is training for endurance atm and if he switches to NFL he won't need to. This will allow him to put on even more muscle and train for explosive speed. He's definitely got the athleticism but it will depend on whether he can learn the game quick enough. It's going to be hard at his age, especially with the amount of plays he will have to learn.
HarryT
Guest
They love ozzie kickers. He would be good in special teams.
TIm Newman
Guest
I think a lot of people are overstating the athletic demands required to be a successful player at positions such as Running Back and Wide Receiver in the NFL. While obviously there are some absolutely freakish athletes who are at the very top of the field in their positions (e.g. Calvin Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Adrian Peterson etc.), it isn't necessarily true that you need to be a freak athlete to be successful at these positions. While the conventional wisdom dictates that a Running Back or Wide Receiver needs to be able to run a sub 4.5 second 40-yard dash to make an impact at NFL level, there are a number of players who are highly successful who do not reach that standard. Take the example of Arian Foster, the (3x Pro-bowl) running back for the Houston Texans. Foster is about 6'1 and 100kg, similar in stature to Hayne, but his fastest 40 time is clocked at about 4.68 seconds - considerably slower than what Hayne would likely run (I'm guessing maybe slightly over the 4.5 mark). Foster is successful because he understands how to use his blockers and choose his running lanes very well, and is excellent at breaking tackles in a one-on-one situation. He's strong, durable and has fantastic footwork - but by no means is he what you would call fast. Likewise, looking at the Wide Receiver position, there are a number of guys who have average athleticism who are amongst the very best in their position. Looking at current players, Larry Fitzgerald (8x Pro-Bowl) and Wes Welker (5x Pro-Bowl) are examples of guys who ran 40 times of between 4.6-4.7, who have been some of the best and most consistent receivers in the last 10 years. And who could forget Jerry Rice - the greatest Wide Receiver of all time - who ran a pedestrian 4.71 40! I personally don't think Hayne's athleticism is going to be an issue for him making it in the NFL. His speed is decent for his position (either RB, WR, or Safety), but what will set him apart (as it did in the NRL) is his acceleration, ability to beat defenders one-on-one, and ultimately his vision and awareness on the field. What I think will be most difficult for him, is adjusting to the specialised nature of the position he eventually finds himself in. There have been a few guys from Rugby Union who have made the transition already though, so I definitely think he has a chance. Nate Ebner (New England Patriots), a former American Rugby player, has been playing for a few years and established himself as a solid special teamer/safety. Daniel Adongo (Indianapolis Colts), a former Kenyan lock who played a season in the ITM Cup for Counties-Manukau, actually made the 53-man roster this season as a pass-rushing Linebacker for the Colts, before an injury cut his season short. In any case, I'm intrigued to see if Hayne can manage to crack the NFL - but first he just needs a team to give him a shot.
JGK
Roar Guru
No way is he too slow for a RB and probably not for a WR either. But I agree, with no pedigree in the game his options are limited.
H.E. Pennypacker
Guest
Do people in Australia realise that there are over 300 million people in America and every boy dreams of playing NFL. It is the ticket out of poverty for some and it is incredibly desperate to make it. If Hayne even gets onto a squad I would be stunned, I do not think he has the athleticism or the knowledge to make in American football. End of the day, which of the 32 GM's of NFL teams will risk his job on a guy who has never played the game before? You cannot even use this as a marketing gimmick, noone gives a stuff about selling football to Australians in the USA.
quintin telea
Guest
Put hayne with polamalu they will make a good combination
Tigranes
Guest
Ojp Many NFL defensive backs are poor tacklers
Tigranes
Guest
Miletv...benji just wasn't good enough to play professional rugby.