2014 Melbourne Cup: Caulfield Cup beaten brigade set for Cup glory

It has been six long years now since a runner in the Caulfield Cup has won the Melbourne Cup.

That horse was Viewed in 2008, who ran in Mackinnon Stakes Saturday prior. Ironically the last horse to come directly from the Caulfield Cup and go on and win at Flemington was the Japanese horse Delta Blues, coming off an outstanding third in 2006.

Had he not been three wide on the speed that day he would undoubtedly have completed the double that year. It would seem more likely than not, that this year, we are going to see the winner of the 2014 Melbourne Cup come via the Caulfield Cup.

Yesterday a 0.5kg penalty was announced for this year’s winner Admire Rakti who is unlikely to be unseated as favourite between now and that first Tuesday in November. I’m surprised he wasn’t given at least 1-kg given that those he beat at Caulfield aren’t significantly better off at the weights for a sound beating.

People are going to have differing opinions but here is my take on the beaten brigade and what chances they might have of turning the tables.

Lucia Valentina (3rd)
She got a bit further back in the race than I would have expected, and that ended up being her downfall, given the tempo of the race, and how wide she was forced on the turn. She finished the race off at least as well as the winner, and certainly better than any other runner but that might not necessarily be the case with another 800m in distance.

If she were mine I would have gone to the Cox Plate this week but you can’t doubt her will to win and the fact she never runs a bad race. She will only meet Admire Rakti 0.5kg better for this deficit and he is a much more seasoned horse and proven at the distance. Yet to win beyond 2000m which just isn’t the recipe for success these days over 3200m at Flemington.

Brambles (4th)
Brambles has been the surprise packet of the Spring and he was good in this race once more. He did get a lovely run in the race though and was outpointed late by the winner and Lucia. He actually meets Admire Rakti on the same weight terms and the Cup is rarely won by a horse that hasn’t won beyond 2400m in the modern era.

Araldo (5th)
Araldo was a surprise packet here and seems to be on the improve this Spring. He has been his own worst enemy, erratic and without an aptitude to ‘find the line’.

He didn’t seem totally genuine at the finish of this race either after a perfect run but he should take no harm from the run and he might appreciate Flemington and the 2 miles.

I say that because he has won at Flemington (on protest) in listed grade and has been placed there in G3 company (Lexus last year), but more importantly he has a half brother called Altano (sire Galileo) who has won at 4000m and did actually run third to Melbourne Cup second favourite Protectionist in France over 3000m recently.

That gives you some hope that this horse might ‘gobble up’ the extra 800m in journey, but then again his sire High Chaparral isn’t renowned as producing 2 milers in this hemisphere. Another encouraging fact is that this horse is a 6yo entire and five of the last six Melbourne Cups have been won by Entires. He looks a live chance but only has a 0.5kg turnaround on Admire Rakti. At least he has won beyond 2400m albeit 2500m.

Lidaro (6th)
Probably ran to his ability and had his chance. He found a few better than him and it’s doubtful 3200m is going to suit.

Has won twice at 2400m but once again that’s not going to really cut it at two miles in the Melbourne Cup these days. Best thing about his is his 5yo entire status but he may not go to Flemington anyway given he is also entered in this weeks Cox Plate.

Junoob (7th)
Didn’t have the best of luck in the race and tried his heart out in the straight actually taking some ground of those ahead of him at the finish.

He has failed twice beyond 2400m though and the Metropolitan win may have been a peak effort for him this campaign, Hard to seem him figuring and he might lack the necessary class even at his best.

Green Moon (9th)
Got a beautiful run turning for him but just wasn’t good enough with his big weight. Won his Melbourne Cup with 53.5kg in a moderately run race. Doubtful he can wi withn 57kg after failing badly with 57.5kg last year. He is an Entire winner, but at 7yo (and a local) that is not an historical success story. Recent Entire winners have been 6yo or less.

Big Memory (10th)
Ran surprisingly well in this class finishing off well from the tail, and he drops to 50.5kg in the Melbourne Cup. That makes him the only horse you can really make a case for against Admire Rakti at the weights given he will be 2kg better off.

He might be a year off full maturity but interesting that his half sister recently won a 3500m race in France. No explanation for his dismal failure in the Adelaide Cup over 3200m in March, but at least will carry a few kilos less than he did there, if he makes the field. My guess is he will lack the class, but he is not hopeless all the same.

The Offer (11th)
Came into the race under a bit of an injury cloud and yet again was found a little bit wanting in a Group 1 Spring event. Given there was a bit of give in the track this was his chance to shine but he had no luck early being wide from his barrier.

‘When the chips were down’ at the 1000m mark, he failed to sprint when required and by the time he had started to make any ground on those ahead the race was over at the point of the turn.

Again he finished off quite well and he gives the indication that 3200m is what he is looking for. His problem might be the 56.5kg he has been allocated as he hasn’t yet proved he is classy enough to carry that weight and win. And he might just need a significantly rain affected track to produce his best on Melbourne Cup day. Can’t sack him just yet but time is running out. Maybe a run in the Mackinnon is on the agenda given he did win the Sydney Cup easily off a seven-day break?

Who Shot Thebarman (13th)
He was found wanting here but the consensus was he wasn’t going to be suited at Caulfield and that seemed to be the case. Glen Boss reported he didn’t corner too well and it’s doubtful he appreciated an aggressive ride.

Maybe he didn’t like the a surface that was slightly rain affected either and I quite like the way he ‘stuck to his guns in the straight’.

The only track he has peformed well at this Spring has been Flemington (2 wins), so all hope is not lost, especially given the stable seemed apprehensive about his chances coming into the race.

He will run the two miles right out and while some may doubt his class I think his formlines stack up okay (Brambles/Marksmanship). He may have a kilo or so too much at Flemington and only meets Admire Rakti 0.5kg better off but a dry track would still see him as a leaiding chance in my eyes.

Seismos (15th)
He was terribly disappointing in the race given yours truly gave him a big chance of winning. He is a very hard horse to fathom but his formlines suggested he was up to winning a Caulfield Cup if he could find his best form.

The Melbourne Cup seemed to be the ultimate goal beforehand but he has failed five times at 2800m and above so it’s hard to see him winning a Melbourne Cup with that profile. Maybe Flemington and a change of jockey and/or Gear could help though?

Summing up I can’t get confident about any of these beating Admire Rakti at Flemington, but a change of circuit and/or track condition could be pivotal. The most likely would seem to be Who Shot TheBarman, The Offer and Araldo.

No doubt that races like the Cox Plate, Moonee Valley Cup, Lexus Stakes, and the Mackinnon are going to throw up a surprise or two, but the Caulfield Cup seems set to be the major influence this Spring.