The Cox Plate is arguably Australia’s ultimate middle distance race, attracting an exciting field of both foreign and local talent.
Because it is a weight-for-age event, the Cox Plate also generally attracts some young talent, and this year is no different as four of the fourteen runners will be three-year-olds.
Last year three-year-old colt Shamus Award shocked everyone, bolting ahead at the turn to win.
The all important barrier draw was held on Tuesday morning, and it has seen a bit of movement in the markets. Early favourite Fawkner drew perfectly in barrier four and came in even furthers in the betting. Fawkner was installed as the Cox Plate favourite after winning the Caulfield Stakes last start over 2000 metres in impressive fashion. He should now be hitting peak fitness and will be really hard to beat with the kind barrier.
One of Fawkner’s main threats is Kiwi-born Sacred Falls, who now resides in the Chris Waller stables in Sydney. He has looked in terrific form once again this preparation, winning the Group 1 George Main Stakes over 1600 metres in Sydney before coming down to Melbourne to run a very fast-finishing fourth behind Fawkner last start. He has drawn barrier nine and has the talented Zac Purton on board.
On the next line of betting is a very interesting three-year-old from the UK out of the Aidan O’Brien stable, Adelaide. Adelaide has never missed the placing from his seven-start career and has three wins to his name, one of which was a Group 1. He has drawn awkwardly in barrier 13 and looks to be unders in the market, but his form is extremely hard to gauge. O’Brien would not have brought him over unless he was confident.
Another of the young brigade right in the market is David Payne’s talented four-year-old Criterion. He was excellent last-start when he flew home for second behind Fawkner. He looks to be hitting peak fitness now and meets Fawkners half a kilogram better in the weights. Jumping from barrier six will be perfect and it is hard to make a case against him. Looks overs in the market and jockey Hugh Bowman obviously agrees, as he has turned down the ride on Royal Descent to ride Criterion.
One man’s loss is another man’s gain as Glen Boss was extremely happy to pick up the ride on Royal Descent after Hugh turned it down. The five-year-old mare out of Chris Waller’s stable has been in excellent form in Sydney, running four seconds this preparation and all in very competitive races. She now steps out to preferable distance and has drawn ideally in barrier three. She hasn’t one won for over twelve months but her form is good enough to put her right in this race.
Happy Trials, the seven-year-old gelding out of Paul Beshara’s stable, has looked in good touch this preparation and he returns to the race where he finished second last year. Damien Oliver’s riding tactics will be interesting out of barrier two as Happy Trials normally races cold. If he pushes in behind the speed and rides for a bit of luck cornering then it could open up for him to display his turn of foot.
Foreteller, another seven-year-old gelding, may like to employ similar tactics. Foreteller is Chris Waller’s third runner and has drawn barrier one, so if Tommy Berry elects to push him forward from the inside barrier we could see him run a race like he did in the Group 1 Underwood Stakes at Caulfield two starts back where he won in impressive fashion.
The last runner I will touch on is six-year-old Silent Achiever. The Kiwi mare was a world beater in Autumn, winning four of five starts, three of which were Group 1s. We are yet to see this form in Spring but she gets winning jockey Nash Rawiller back on board and should be hitting peak fitness. Drawing barrier 11 is not ideal and her only chance is to push forward and try to get close to the speed she was racing in Autumn. If she gets out of the barriers quickly she could come into play.
Let’s hope that the forecast rain for Thursday is not too heavy as the race meet on Friday at the Valley would destroy the track if it’s wet.
In a close finish I have Sacred Falls on top of Fawkner, Criterion and Foreteller.
Mark from Derby
Guest
I agree with Greg. I can't believe he is not in the Melbourne Cup. Maybe next year.
Haradasun
Roar Rookie
Criterian isn't nominated for the melb cup. This is definitely his grand final.
Greg
Guest
I expect Criterion to run well but surely it will just be a tune up for the first Tuesday in November.
Mark from Derby
Guest
Criterion will be better suited at the Valley than Caulfield. He only got going with 300m to go last start and went down to Fawkner by a neck. The camber of the Valley track should allow him to hot top gear 350m out. I expect him to be ridden near the rear of the field and come through the middle as the others fan out as he did in the Caulfield stakes. Meets Fawkner half a kilo better, which should be worth a length over 2000 if The Cleaner sets a solid pace. I cant see Adelaide getting a sit from the outside barrier. Its A Dundeel had to sit 3 wide last year and failed. Sacred Falls can't be expected to run two hard 2000m races in a fortnight, it's too much to ask from a miler. Criterion is great in any going. Wandjina will be the danger as he has the pull in the weights and is getting better with every run. Expect Criterion to start favourite around $5. Criterion to win by a length with Wandjina second and The Cleaner and Fawkner fighting it out for third.
johnny nevin is a legend
Guest
Adelaide is an interesting runner, put aside for an international campaign this year. Just a quick correction Richard. Aidan O'Brien is from Ireland not the UK
michael steel
Guest
In 2006 a mate of mine asked who do I think will win the Cox Plate, I said this field is so ordinary the 9 year old champ Fields of Omagh could win. He did. 2006 Fields of Omagh 9 year old champion 16/1 2007 El Segundo Good horse (2nd to 9 year old- 2006) 6/1 2008 Maldivian Handicapper with $400,000 prize money prior to this win 20/1 2009 So You Think Unheard of 3 year old 9/1 2010 So You Think Now a Champion Odds on 2011 Pinker Pinker Miler / Epsom winner 33/1 2012 Ocean Park Very good horse 5/1 2013 Shamus Reward Maiden 3 year old. 20/1 2014 This information proves two things. Form and expert opinion mean nothing in this race at the moment. It's a Dundeel looked the goods last year.
ray
Guest
All those are great horses, in the era when the OZ cup became a wfa race, previous to 1979 it was a hcp & a very lowly one, at. that But my main point is, the Oz cup in general, is just as good as a cox plate these days.
MAX
Guest
The forecast predicts 15.2 mm of rain between 7pm Wed and 10 am Thur of which 11.8 mm may fall from 7pm to 11pm. tonight. I hope the club advise of irrigation.. Early races may be educational. The great JBCummings maintains that The Australian Cup should be our top WFA race ... right time (Autumn), right distance (2000M) and at the right track (Flemington) Most of us would agree. I have learned to treat Moonee Valley as a novelty and keep the powder dry for Flemington.
Scuba
Guest
Yes, the Australian Cup came of age when Lonhro won (in 2004, not 2003) beating immortals of the turf such as Delzao and Pentastic, because before that it was a terrible race - even hacks like Bonecrusher, Vo Rogue, Better Loosen Up, Let's Elope, Saintly, Octagonal and Northerly could win it in modern times, and it had probably been won by hacks all the way back to the first running in 1863. Back in the real world, Fawkner should give Lloyd his first Cox Plate.
Adam Page
Roar Guru
The MVRC have got away with it so far, but they will get their pants pulled down sooner rather than later. It will rain on the Friday and the Cox Plate will be run on a cow paddock one year
ray
Guest
I think what makes the best contests in Cox Plates is when the competitors have met each other, on a number of occassions delivering thrilling results. This years Plate delivers that only to a minor degree. So this Plate to me lacks that Grudge-match-feel. It'll still be a great race, possibly a ripper, but in these modern days, The Australian Cup with the fields it often serves up, is just as good a race these days. In 2003 in the most visually exiting race i think ive seen, Lohnro from an almost impossibe position in the straight, pulled out from a severe tightening, momentem lost he had to make up two lengths from the 3yo Delzao with 200mtrs to post. In Greg Miles's possibly best Call ive heard. 'Is he gonna get up? The Champ! Yes!' The Australian Cup came age that day, Lohnro beat Delzao, Elvstroem, Mummify Pentastic and Makybe Diva. j
Dean
Guest
Given the good weather so far early in the week, if it doesn't rain Thursday, they'll have to dump a good watering on it anyway. Forecast looks pretty good at this point. They'll be out there watering on Thursday and Friday morning. Anyone silly enough to bet on this one needs their head read.
Brent Ford
Roar Guru
Jeeze if it rains and the track is smashed come Saturday who ever decided to have racing two days in a row is going to look like a fool!