It’s one of the more interesting discussions generated since Jarryd Hayne’s startling announcement last week. How much does America’s most popular sport care about its Australian audience?
Is the league ever going to send another game to our shores?
And what role, if any, might Hayne’s journey – as a highly marketable NRL star trying to master America’s game – play in expanding the NFL in Australia?
In the wake of Hayne’s sensational press conference on Wednesday a colleague of mine – an experienced sports journalist – suggested what we’d just witnessed was a clever NFL ploy.
Perhaps the league was in on it from the beginning, keen to poach one of Australia’s biggest sporting stars to grow American Football Down Under.
Maybe the NFL would encourage a lesser franchise to use Hayne as a project player. Sign him to a modest rookie contract, develop him for a season or two and if it works out then the NFL has a legitimate good news story and as many as thousands of new fans. If not, then at the very least it’s a good public relations exercise for the NFL.
I was skeptical and told him there was very little to suggest that Australia – its athletes or fans – are even on the NFL’s radar. The last time the league sent a game to Australia was 15 years ago, the 1999 America Bowl between the then Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos and San Diego Chargers.
The America Bowl was a series of NFL preseason exhibition games held outside the US between 1986 and 2005. The league abandoned the slate of games in 2007, the same year it got rid of NFL Europe, citing a new international strategy and focus on sending regular season games to London.
Since 2007, the NFL has played nine regular season games in Wembley Stadium and while the quality of the product hasn’t always been high, the games have averaged more than 80,000 fans. The league scheduled one game a season between 2007 and 2012. Last year they played two games across the pond, this year there will be three.
The more games sent to London and the more momentum the initiative gains the less likely the NFL will ever play a meaningful game in Australia. The UK just makes too much sense. It’s only an eight-hour flight from New York, not much longer than a sojourn out to the west coast, and the primetime slot in London is a 1pm kick-off on the east coast of the US.
Whereas for Australia, the difference in time zones would make it near impossible to schedule a game that would both attract a sell-out crowd and be screened live on primetime in America. The travel would be deemed too disruptive for NFL teams during a short 16-game season and the rest required to play an NFL game would mean only one match could be played, unlike the MLB or NBA which can play back-to-back games or games on short rest.
It’s clear the logistical problems meant the NFL tossed this one into the too hard basket long ago. But the debate over whether Australian fans will ever see their favourite players in the flesh and on home soil has ramped up in recent years as the game’s popularity has increased.
Queensland premier Campbell Newman has been an unlikely advocate and has repeatedly said he wants the NFL to send a game to Brisbane’s Suncorp Stadium. Despite a meeting in New York and an invite for the league to come and check out the facilities in Queensland, nothing has solidified.
The possibility of Australia hosting more US sporting franchises was discussed again in March this year during the build-up to Major League Baseball’s opening series of games at the Sydney Cricket Ground.
MLB senior vice president of international business operations Paul Archey said the landmark games would pave the way for the NBA and NFL to schedule regular-season fixtures in Australia. He predicted the United States’ major sporting bodies would be keeping a close eye on the success of the weekend’s venture Down Under as part of a global search for the next region they can grow their game.
The event was a huge success. Nearly 80,000 fans crammed in over the two regular season games and the crowds remained until the end of the ninth innings to show their appreciation for the unfamiliar superstars who made the long trip to Australia to entertain. But it didn’t lead to any dialogue from the NFL.
So how much does the NFL care about its Australian fans? Enough to know we exist? Yes, but only just. The reason for that is the NFL makes so much money domestically.
In 2013, the total revenue for the NFL was somewhere just north of $9 billion, meaning the league remains the most lucrative in the world. Not content with that, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell is aspiring for more. He wants to reach $25 billion in annual revenues for the league by the year 2027.
As for TV ratings, 205 million unique US viewers tuned into the NFL during 2013, representing 81 per cent of all television homes and 70 per cent of potential viewers in the US, according to The Neilsen Company.
For the second consecutive year, NFL games were the most watched TV show during all 17 weeks of the regular season and accounted for 34 of the 35 most viewed shows overall. Over the past decade, average viewership of NFL games on broadcast television has increased 31 per cent from 15.5 million in 2003 to 20.3 million in 2013.
These are all huge numbers and show the incredible popularity the sport enjoys in the US. Even the negative publicity the league copped after the domestic violence scandal couldn’t shake their numbers, with Americans tuning in to watch football in greater numbers this year than they did last. It’s quite remarkable.
So, what about the idea of using Hayne to grow the game in Australia? Is it worth it? You could argue yes. It may only cost the NFL a few million dollars and could lead to an increase in merchandise sales, NFL game pass subscriptions and overall a bigger fan-base, which the NFL could use as leverage the next time its broadcast deal is up for renewal. But, the more obvious question is will they?
Probably not. The NFL is a proven product. Despite the concussion crisis, domestic violence scandals and questions around the new drug policy, the league is a juggernaut that cannot be stopped. It doesn’t need gimmicks to attract fans; it has the best athletes in the world, playing in arguably the most competitive league in the world.
The best Australian fans could hope for is that we host the NFL Pro Bowl, the annual All-Star event traditionally held in Hawaii. The game would attract a huge number of domestic and international fans and the US media spotlight would be on Australia during the biggest sporting week of the year, the build-up to the Super Bowl.
But, most importantly, it could go some of the way to repaying Australian fans for their years of patronage.
Jay C
Roar Guru
Amiright? He could catch trains to all of the Stadiums. Boom you've got yourself a sponsor. Why aren't we funding this?
Sam Rigney
Expert
I like working title number 3.
Jay C
Roar Guru
So does that mean all games are played on Sunday? Aren't people interested in watching other games over there or justtheir own teams? In any case we have some working titles rolling around for the reality tv series. 1. The Hayne Trains Reign of Pain. 2. The Hayne Train; Destination Unknown, and my personal Favourite 3. The Hayne Train: All Abroad (In a train conductors voice and then a referee blows a whistle but it's a train whistle.) This show has practically written itself.
Syd
Guest
A bit disrespectful? To come out and say that he is the equal of the greatest kick returner in history ( Devin Hester ) and say that he saw nothing that he couldn't do was both ridiculously naive and extremely arrogant. He will play as many downs as you and I have. He does not have a natural position to fit into and there are thousands of athletes with his skill set trying to make it in the CFL let alone the NFL. Olympic calibre athletes have tried and failed to make a roster and Hayne is no different to them. The best he could hope for is to make a practice roster. He is zero chance of playing one down in a regular season game.
Syd
Guest
Hayne will not make it as a position player as there is not a position that he is a natural fit for and NFL teams do not waste a roster spot on a player who can only play special teams. He is too big and runs too upright to be a running back. He does not have the pure blazing speed to be a wide receiver and he is too small to be a good tight end. At the very best he might make a practice roster but he will not play one down in a regular season NFL game. There are thousands of athletes with Hayne's skill set ( or better ) who try to make the NFL or even the CFL and do not. Hayne will play as many NFL games as I have.
Syd
Guest
Hayne will not make it as a position player as there is not a position that he is a natural fit for. He is too big and runs too upright to be a running back. He does not have the pure blazing speed to be a wide receiver and he is too small to be a good tight end. At the very best he might make a practice roster but he will not play one down in a regular season NFL game. There are thousands of athletes with Hayne's skill set ( or better ) who try to make the NFL or even the CFL and do not. Hayne will play as many NFL games as I have.
Syd
Guest
The NFL only plays Saturday games during the first two weeks of the playoffs. They do not play regular season games on Saturdays in December.
Timmuh
Roar Guru
The NFL did precisely nothing on the backs of Bennett, Graham and Rocca. Why would it be different for Hayne? Yes, he is a bigger name than they were - particularly in Sydney which has the only viable venue - but would the difference even be noticeable from a US perspective. If he makes it he would probably play a position with more on-field time. That is probably a bigger difference comnpared to punters, who aren't really a drawcard to American Football. But enough to base a whole marketing strategy on? Not a chance.
RDG
Guest
The only time they play on saturday is during the playoffs and there is no way they would bring a playoff game to australia
H.E. Pennypacker
Guest
NRL has nothing to worry about, and Hayne is a bit disrespectful of American football if he reckons he can just waltz in and take over, a bit like Folau in AFL. He came out looking like a complete mug in that case and Hayne will go the same way. If he plays a single down in the pros I would be hugely impressed.
Jay C
Roar Guru
Alright sport, settle down. No one is offended. You are just wrong is all. I understand it is easier to stoop to sarcasm than provide genuine insight but I assure you I am not interested in a battle of wits with the unarmed. Why did MLB bring their opening game to Australia? There would be a few countries in Europe and maybe South Africa, but other than that Australia is a huge market for sports consumption. Very high expendable income. Tick Sports mad. Tick English Speaking. Tick China and India are loooooooong term maybes. But I can't really see much of Asia taking interest. Every country that loves sport already has sport so that argument is null. South America is too poor to be of major interest. England is an obvious choice, but gee, if Australia is sports saturated.... I am just sick of reading articles and messages about Australia not being able to compete on the world stage when we clearly do on almost all fronts.
mushi
Guest
The dynamics you describe small population already big consumers of sport, are the exact kind of dynamics that a new entrant dreads: strong incumbents, competition and low upside relative to the current revenues. I’m not “down on Australia” I didn’t realise the jingoism had reached so high that we couldn’t recognise we aren’t a great target for a sport where the NRL salary cap would be a rounding error. I apologise to any one I offended who’s self worth is tied to an opinion on if we are an appropriate target for offshore mass media. So yes chin up as I’m sure tomorrow will provide you with another startling dose of reality that will likewise shatter your fragile fantasy.
Tim
Guest
It'll mean sweet f all.
Christian D'Aloia
Roar Guru
Whether or not this whole Jarryd Hayne thing was nothing more than a ploy by the NFL, it certainly worked on me. Since he announced he'd be heading to America, I've started watching games and really gotten into it. Nicely done, NFL.
Jay C
Roar Guru
Why is everyone so down on Australia. Sure we don't have the population but he consume sports like nobodies business. We also have some of the highest slush funds for erroneous purchases in the world. I am sure we would be fairly high on the list for the NFL as we are oviously to the MLB. Chin up guys, Australia is one of the hottest markets for business expansion. How many of the billion Indians do you think are vuying foxtel or buying jerseys at 200 bucks a pop. We go alright.
mushi
Guest
If they look at the global audience as a 3 course dinner I think the untapped market in Australia is the little chocolate truffle you sometimes get with the post dessert coffee. Nice if it arrives but would you even notice if it doesn't?
Worlds Biggest
Guest
If Hayne accomplishes the impossible and makes a roster and get's game time I'm sure it will raise some interest in the NFL. As for the NFL's interest here, it might mean teams ramp up there souting efforts but thats about it I would think. They would never take a regular game here due to the logistics, the Pro Bowl ( if they persist with it ) would be the only realistic option. The NFL are no doubt interested in increasing there International audience however we would be well down the pecking order.
mushi
Guest
I think you would actually kill someone with the heat
peeeko
Roar Guru
Sam another great article.
Dogs Of War
Roar Guru
College football is Saturday night viewing there. They look after each tier properly. High school friday nights, college saturday, nfl sundays.