A friend linked me to the Francesca Cumani and Simon Marshall spat that concluded yesterday’s racing.
For those that didn’t see the discussion about the ‘ride-of-the-day’ that had an expensive Longines watch as the prize, Marshall was the sole judge and awarded the prize to Michelle Payne for her ride on Prince of Penzance. Yes, the ‘brilliant’ ride where she later copped a 20 meetings suspension for her karmic race decision that had Chad Schofield eating turf.
The stewards viewed the incident with the same severity as when Chad caused interference to Michelle a few weeks back, issuing the same penalty. Everyone remembers the race where Chad muscled Michelle but she was skilful enough not to end-up eating turf.
I believe both incidents were dangerously amateurish and deserved the heavy suspension.
But back to the Francesca and Simon spat.
To begin, I’d like to remind Simon that he needs to be careful in future when debating with Francesca. Firstly, she is smarter than you, and secondly, she has half-Italian heritage so somewhere under all that grace, elegance and exceptional good manners is a very feminine toggle switch that if you had manage to flick, may have you wearing anything she could lay her hands on. Lucky boy, and well maintained Francesca.
Concerning the best ride award, as expressed elsewhere I plumbed for Nick Hall. When you have a decent gamble happening, you want to see a bulletproof performance from your jockey and Team Williams got that from Hall. No complaints whatsoever.
Beaten by a better animal, so well done Coolmore. Nick couldn’t have done anything better to improve the finish.
Francesca Cumani defended Ryan Moore’s ride questioning Marshall’s judgement and suggesting it was the best of the day. Marshall continued, saying incredulous things like “Moore’s ride was the best ‘worst’ ride.” The boiling point was beginning to be reached as the debate increased in intensity with Cumani quite rightly not yielding a millimetre.
Most of you know I am an evidence-based gambler, so let’s see what comprised this best ‘worst’ ride.
Let us have a look at what Moore got up to before the Cox Plate.
Ryan’s first mount of the day seen him sit last on Bull Point in the Crystal Mile. He rode it cold and was last into the straight and then let rip to beat all but the best horse Hooked. Brilliant stuff I thought.
Next ride, he takes Zululand to the front, rates the 20/1 chance perfectly to be run over in the last 100m, finishing three lengths from the winner in sixth place. So now he has completed two rides at Moonee Valley, one in front and one from last and no doubt his tactics for the Cox Plate have now firmed-up .
What does Moore know about Adelaide?
He has ridden him at his last two starts. His first ride resulted with an on-the-pace victory in a messy Secretariat Stakes (G1-T) at Arlington. The only convincing thing about the win was that he went early and stayed on strongly the whole length of the straight. Sound familiar?
At his last ride on Adelaide before the Cox Plate, he got ‘caught-in-traffic’ at Longchamp but literally flies from the back to run second over 2400m in 2.26.5 seconds. It was an eye-catching run in a Group Two.
So just like his two race-day rides at the Valley gave an understanding of the track, his last two rides on Adelaide allowed him to profile the horse.
Let’s look at the Cox Plate ride.
Moore eases Adelaide back to last. He begins to make ground down the back and you will notice that he has passed half the field easily before Steve Arnold presses the button to accelerate on The Cleaner.
He then he rests Adelaide when others have got moving. Not asking of him again until the 500m and from there, he continues to build momentum and now he is at the turn in full flight. What is left in the tank?
The tactical Moore knew through his previous two rides what his horse would do in most situations and backed Adelaide’s stamina to see it out. It was similar to his Arlington run, and he knew he was chasing a tough, hardened stayer. The astute race watcher would have noticed him pull the whip and slap him at the point of the home turn to wake him up before riding vigorously in the last 100m.
What Marshall and Freedman where saying I found embarrassing. They make Australian race-watchers sound like idiots.
I was thanking Cumani for defending the sophisticated race-watcher. Surely someone realises that Moore rode the camber. No doubt this is something he learnt to do in the United States because if you can’t ride the camber there, a jockey becomes a track-work rider very quickly, end-of-story.
The other thing Moore and other international quality riders can do is effectively pace a race in lanes. It is a skill lacking in too many Australian riders.
Many jurisdictions throughout the racing world have very strong regulations about when and how you cross any opposition. The result is a style of racing called ‘racing-in-lanes’. It requires a special skill and an absolute understanding of race-pressure combined with supreme horsemanship.
In nearly every other jurisdiction, nobody worries too much about covering ground. Here we carry on and sound like brain-dead geese. ‘Covering ground’ is often strategised in tactics because competent riders can settle their mounts into a wide lane with little disadvantage if they know how their horse will react when the pressure is applied.
Moore got where he wanted to be before the half mile and when Arnold dragged the field along on The Cleaner, Moore wasn’t spending a penny.
Before you start telling me about big roomy, looping, European tracks I’ll remind you of very tight cambered American tracks where they have turned assessment of pace into an art-form.
In the past, Moore had been criticised by sections of the media for his rides on Mount Athos and Dandino. In reality, he was a victim of circumstances on Mount Athos after copping interference on the turn but still had rated him well and made the best of a bad hand to finish fifth. But to receive criticism for his ride on Dandino is just damned pig-ignorant. His ride was a ripper.
All I heard was a moaning managing-owner who was obviously watching the wrong horse. If he was watching Dandino, he may have noticed Moore save all the ground on this dubious long-distance stayer, hugging rail around the turn.
Ryan was certainly last on straightening but then he switches wide and low-and-behold he is sitting behind Fiorente at the top of the straight waiting for Oliver to press the button.
Oliver did press the button, but unfortunately for Dandino, he wasn’t up to it. Fiorente and others worked away from the American St. Ledger winner who nevertheless worked home into fifth, finishing past exhausted horses.
The margin between Fiorente and Dandino was narrowest at the top of the straight. Run that race a hundred times and I doubt he finishes any closer.
For me, Francesa Cumani was right for all the right reasons, and Simon Marshall needs to pick up his act, because at the moment he is not cutting the mustard as an informed expert.
I believe an analytically astute retired jockey has his feet up somewhere overseas, maybe Macau? Shane Dye is media savvy and could dissect a race with the precision of a surgeon whether you want to talk horses, riders or tactics.
Maybe suspend Marshall for 20 meetings for his irrational remarks, replacing him with Shane Dye and have no doubt the level of quality commentary would improve a hundredfold.
And as for Ryan Moore, I have no problem with him steering Protectionist in the Melbourne Cup. As I mentioned well over a month ago, I thought the German horse was as good as any of the internationals, including Admire Rakti.
Watch Moore’s run on Dandino in the 2013 Melbourne Cup
Cameron Rose
Expert
Great article KV, but I must say I strongly disagree on your view of Hall's ride on Fawkner. The best horse in the race certainly won it, but Hall's ride cost Fawkner victory. He pushed the button far too early once The Cleaner went, and was almost just racing against him. If he was more patient, I believe he would have won, and Adelaide wouldn't have gotten there in time. Of course, that may just be a view looking through an empty wallet.
kv joef
Roar Guru
Thank you racing-roarers, one and all for joining this conversation and the kind comments about the article content. Your expansion on my original thoughts, pro and con, is high quality as expected. Maybe a few of you have guessed that there is a PART TWO to this story. i leave those thoughts in the editor's hands for publishing if he thinks they are reasonable enough. I don't expect racing-roarers to be so kind next time around but think this article needs to be published. Also ... some think I was tough on Simon Marshall towards the article's end by suggesting RSDye as a replacement ... it was a cheap shot probably reminding him of a disappointing low-point in his otherwise memorable saddle-career. Dye secured a prime ride at this time of the year; nearly a quarter of a century ago, at Simon's expense. Anyway, i think Simon would have taken all of one second to remind me that ... 'Shane didn't win, did he?' ... no he didn't, Simon :) ... but he went close.
Aransan
Guest
For simplicity the wfa scale is based on the month of the year when a race is run and all horses in Australia celebrate their birthdays on August 1. There is no reason other than complexity why the wfa scale shouldn't actually be based on the age of the horse at the time a race is run and then it wouldn't matter whether we were talking about the southern or northern hemisphere. The 2001-2400m wfa scale for a 3y.o. male horse specified in racenet.com going from August to July is: 48.5, 49, 49.5, 50.5, 51, 52, 53, 54, 54.5, 55.5, 56, 57kg Thus a 3y.o. colt is given 49.5kg in the Cox Plate run in October. Suppose instead that 3y.o.s were weighted according to their age in months, then weights would be allocated for ages: 3.00, 3.01, 3.02, 3.03, 3.04, 3.05, 3.06, 3.07, 3.08, 3.09, 3.10, 3.11 where the number following the decimal point indicates months. Thus Adelaide was 3.08 in October and his weight would have been 54.5kg, if the other 3y.o.s that ran in the Cox Plate had actually been born in October their weights would have been 48.5kg instead of the 49.5kg actually allocated in which case their advantage would have only been 0.5kg. Was Choisir given any allowance when he raced in England as a southern hemisphere 3y.o.?
Bondy
Guest
What should also be remembered is when an Australian Colt Choisir etc races in England its racing as a 4 yr old so its swings and roundabouts stuff . Choisir won the King Stand and Golden Jubilee double with a 4 yr olds weight SWFA not a 3 yr old Colts weight ...
Aransan
Guest
Adelaide was 6 months older than the other 3 year olds, there is a significant increase in the wfa scale in a 6 month period at that age. I would argue that his disadvantage was at the most 2kg, and certainly not 6.5kg, this seems to have been a common error in the thinking of commentators.
Casper
Guest
You only had to watch those two Adelaide runs in the US & France mentioned by KV and it was clear he had a bit on most of the field without bad luck. Admire Rakti was the same, it's only our stayers who need to be cuddled near the fence because they're suspect at the distance when it's a truly run race. I thought Moore slaughtered Adelaide in the Longchamp race by sitting in on the fence in a 7 horse field, he flew at them late. Also, Adelaide appeared to be more comfortable at Arlington going the Melbourne way compared to Longchamp. Racing at Mooney Valley is like riding at a velodrome, completely different to a road race. The overseas horses are used to racing with room so it's too late to teach them to run tight by the time they come here, that makes no sense. Some adapt & run well while others just don't handle the conditions. Nobody seemed to take note of the fact that Aiden O'Brien hasn't been here for a long time, but decided to bring Adelaide out for the supposedly hardest WFA race in Australia. Everyone should have remembered that he had a form line through So You Think, dual Cox Plate winner, which he trained in the UK. Made it look good from my perspective.
Rocket Surgeon
Guest
The other 3 year olds in the race got 49.5kg. So 56KG, 6.5KG seems a big jump for being born ~ 6 months earlier. Where did you get that scale from?
Aransan
Guest
What should Adelaide have carried according to the wfa scale? He carried 56kg and according to my simplistic thinking he should have been looked at as an April 3y.o. which would have given him 54.5kg. His dob is 19/2/2011, so a 6 month adjustment seems reasonable.
BrisburghPhil
Roar Guru
Very good article KV! Yes I can confirm R.Moores comments re Makybe Diva. He had obviously done his homework. Re Dandino, his best run beyond 2700m was in the Melbourne Cup. Is he really a 3200m horse? And is Fawnkner?
ScottWoodward.me
Roar Guru
kv Great article mate. You can add big Richie to the bucket list on Ryan Moore. Unlike his dad Kenny, who is one of the best judges I know thought Moore's ride was excellent. I am very critical on jockeys and I thought RM was amazing from start to finish, the only surprise is that he did not have a ride in every race
croc
Guest
Bondy, that's right - lost revenue. E-Meter. I agree sounds so simple, just flick the channel back forth, but why should we have to! It should be my choice as a punter. I mean I pay my subscription for Sky and TVN (ridiculous in itself but that's another story) so why not just show it on all channels. I know Ch7 pay up big for the rights, but really its doing the racing industry a disservice to stop telecasts on other channels. It reeks of amateurism. They need to take a long hard look at how HK has promoted racing over the last 20 years. They know that punters are the backbone of the industry and so do everything they can to enhance their experience. Australia is only just starting to wake up to this fact, I mean we just got free video form - wooohoo! About 10 years too late and still not available in all states. It's 2014 the crying out loud. What are they thinking.
Rocket Surgeon
Guest
" Ryan Moore: Gun Jockey or lucky to be on the best horse." Ryan Moore is a top World Class Jockey. That's why he got the ride on the top horse IMO. It seems to me the two go hand in hand. What Ryan did not know was the course, the other horses and the other jockeys. When you consider that he had a wide barrier, and his race plan failed to materialise and the horse was technically overweighted for its age, and that most tipsters gave Adelaide NO chance, even for a first four finish, against Australia's best WFA horses and jockeys, then you have to give the Jockey [and trainer] some credit, whilst realising the horse is special, and maybe destined to be a great horse. The best jockeys get to choose the best rides? And special horses make top jockeys reputations? That seems to be a reality in many areas of endeavour.
E-Meter
Guest
Great article by the way kv. Really enjoyed it.
E-Meter
Guest
You only have to watch the actual race on Ch 7 though. Watch all the TVN lead up until just before the start and flick over.
Bondy
Guest
croc Also if we have to watch Ch7 " first " doesn't that then drive away revenue $$ from the subscription providers of TVN and Sky betting on other meets throughout the country I.E. if I stray from TVN I wont be betting on Randwick or Rosehill throughout the Flemington Carnival ...
michael steel
Guest
Strange. I backed Dandino last year and had no complaints. I'll definitely be on him again this year. With Admire Radki of course. You are right about expert opinion but I have no problem with the Seven commentary team. Like any commentary team they come out with stupid or strange things as well as the inciteful and brilliant.
carlos cid
Guest
As part owner of dandino i will have to slightly disagree. Fiorente (F) & dandino (D) were side by side all the way until 1400mt. The race was lost from this point onwards especially 1100-1000 when F got off rails to position himself for turn and D chose to stay put. Approching home turn D has a wall of slow horse in front & F peeling off beautfully. In saying this, there was no way D was going to beat F BUT a TOP3 was assured. As an owner $175k for 5th & $900k for 2nd & 4450k for 3rd it was an expensive misjudgement from MOORE. As for his ride on saturday,when your on the best horse (possible champ) all you have to do is steer so lets not get over excited cause if the horse goes down by a neck then it would be labelled a biggest buther ride since veandercross & DYE.
croc
Guest
At the end of the day it's not marketed to serious horseplayers, and in that regard I guess they do a reasonable job. But to be kicked off TVN and sky due to "contractual" agreements is just plain stupid. It does nothing to enhance the industry at a time when they should be doing everything they can to keep people interested as well as attract new punters. What everyone seems to forget is that it the punters who keep the industry alive. Without the punters there is no industry. The ones who watch the races every week, not the once a year wannabes at cup time. So to punish us is completely foolish, a poor business decision. But they know we are hooked, so we just suck it up, cop an earful of Bruce McAvaney for the afternoon and move on back to our form guides.
Will Sinclair
Roar Guru
I've been forced to watch Channel Seven a few times (when the kids are watching Foxtel on the big telly) and I actually reckon they do a pretty good job. Good analysis, plenty of time spent on the horses, the commentators are very watchable... BUT - that will all change this week when the Cup carnival starts and they revert to cross-promotion and advertising and soft colour stories. Honestly, I can't WAIT to find out what the stars of Home and Away think will win the Derby. CANNOT WAIT.
Bondy
Guest
I dont want to bag Ch7 I hardly ever watch it I'm a TVN punter but could any other FTA network do a better job than them , I'd suggest not...