After silently reading the articles on The Roar for over two years, I have finally decided to try writing something that people might share their opinions on.
It is actually just an expansion on the comment I posted on one of the previous articles, which (pleasantly) surprisingly, got a few affirmative responses and did not degenerate into an inter-state brawl.
There were a few Roarers that mentioned they didn’t agree with some of my thoughts, but did not elaborate, so I am really hoping to hear more honest views of everyone who watches the same matches but surely form various differing opinions.
Before anyone starts wasting their effort trying to determine whether I have any “bias”, let’s just say that I am not from Australia, or New Zealand or South Africa or England or any other major rugby-playing nation, and I don’t live in any of these countries either.
I just like watching rugby and happen to support Australia because they were the most interesting team to watch from the late 90s when I started watching rugby. It’s been a tiring and sad time since… oh and I support Liverpool in the Premier League, so I’m doubly-sad.
I’m actually a 30-something from Singapore, and the closest encounter I have ever had with Southern-Hemisphere rugby was having a tour to New Zealand when I was 14, with my secondary school rugby team. It was an awesome tour, with matches, exchanges and a homestay with Wesley College students.
So here are my absolute Outsider’s thoughts on the Wallabies in 2014, especially on the EOYT, just based on observation and without any particular technical/tactical/strategic know-how.
Players:
James Slipper: Undoubtedly the first choice loose head prop, but still has to work on his ball security. Seemed to knock on in tackles a few times, but generally people don’t get as annoyed with him as they do the other props.
Those more knowledgeable on the scrum probably know better as well, but I’m thinking his scrummaging is another thing that still can be improved further as he develops as a player. Having said that, definitely an asset to the team.
Saia Fainga’a: I’m just wondering whether Australia really missed Stephen Moore or Tatafu Polota-Nau on this tour. I think he did a fantastic job, his low (effective) tackles and breakdown work covering from the really loose loosies.
Moore and Tatafu Polota-Nau might add some strength to scrums, but I doubt they would have matched Faaing’a for overall impact. All in all, the Wallabies should be pretty happy with the hooker situation if all three are fit next season.
Sekope Kepu: Compared to last year, at least Australia now has a decent tight head. He has definitely improved over last year, where he was alternating with the Hinge and Paddy Ryan for “honours”.
I guess it really doesn’t help that he gets almost no support from behind him. Coaches tried to move Simmons behind him to help, but to no avail as support behind Slipper weakened, and the flanker (Hooper/McMahon/Jones) never seemed to do their job in the scrum anyway.
Sam Carter: Great workrate, but too similar and offers less than Simmons. Australia needs a power lock to complement Simmons.
Rob Simmons: Haters have to stop hating. I think if you take a step back, or not think about where he (or yourself) comes from, it is obvious there isn’t a better lock in Australia.
Great lineout operator, improving ruck work, high tackle completion, steady scrumming, even support play at the end of the match for his first Test try! He isn’t the power lock, but he is definitely half of the combo Australia needs.
In the England Test, he came in injured, obviously injured himself further early on, and yet completed the first half.
The set pieces and even some bit of general play fell apart further after he went off (It wasn’t great from the start) pretty obviously.
Very telling how important he is to Australia compared to the alternatives (Skelton and Jones on the bench) that even injured, he was required on the field.
Sean McMahon: Probably too early for him to play Test football. Honestly thought he didn’t offer enough after the Baa Baas match. Definitely lots of potential, though. We’ll see how he goes in Super Rugby.
Michael Hooper (C): Is there really no one else suitable as captain? Really looked and sounded like a whiny schoolboy, often caught on ref’s mic.
Terrible in the scrums… just keep pushing!
Almost 100 per cent of the time the scrum went backwards at the same time his head came up to look at… what?
Regarding his wide play/positioning, I have almost no doubt he is playing to instructions. Hooper definitely has the engine and heart to work tighter if he was instructed to. He also showed he can still make turnovers when he has to.
There is no truth to the view that he cannot win turnovers. Unfortunately, he is also Australia’s most penetrative forward in attack. He deserves to be in the XV, but the rest of the pack has to be complementary to his skillset – something we have yet to see from any of the coaches’ selections.
Ben McCalman: Australia isn’t blessed with giant, power number eights, but he has been doing a great job, I think. Palu wasn’t really missed on tour. Worthy of the general praise he has been receiving for his efforts.
PHIPPS : Speedy delivery? (Check). Energiser bunny? (Check). But he really needs to improve his pass.
I actually think he put the team under too much pressure and caused many attacking moves to break down because of his passing. He is currently No. 1 because Genia isn’t match fit and White doesn’t pass much better.
Think about the phases leading up to the drop goal against Wales. I am almost certain it would never have happened if Genia wasn’t the one in control at nine.
All the nines have another season to stake their claim, but if Phipps’ pass remains the way it is and is still nine at Rugby World Cup, Australia will be in real trouble. Speed isn’t everything, and he won’t always be able to score freak tries (which haven’t been enough to win matches anyway).
Bernard Foley: Serviceable 10. Great support play (see his tries).
Really terrible boot when not kicking at goal within his range. His range is actually a big factor that many overlook when talking about his goal-kicking. I honestly don’t think his goal-kicking offers Australia as much as people think it does.
He only seems to kicks from 35/40m out, and only ever from the corners for conversions and not from penalties, probably because he isn’t really that accurate. I think the reason Hooper decides to go for a line-out instead of a shot at goal when the spot is near the touchline, is because Foley may not be able to nail it.
Go back to all the Tests and you will see the pattern. Many people keep bringing up the fact that Hooper declines “kickable” penalties. Maybe the reasons is that they aren’t really “kickable” for Foley.
That’s where his terrible kicks come into play, cue lineout 10/15m from the kick and far from the try line. If his goalkicking is the reason he is still no.1, he had better start working on kicking from further out or further to the side. It was so painful to see his kicks versus Sexton and Ford. It wasn’t even a contest.
Matt Toomua: Needs to work on kicking accuracy and consistency, and be a bit more careful about charging from the line defensively, but definitely the best 12 in Australia at the moment. His defence is immense, and he works so very well with Cooper. Somehow his combination with Foley doesn’t give Australia the same balanced impact.
Tevita Kuridrani: Nothing more needs to be said this season, I think. Time to work on additional offloading and passing while making sure all the positives remain next season. One of the better 13s in international Tests the past season.
Adam Ashley-Cooper: “Mr Reliable” hasn’t been all too reliable in the last few matches. However, experience can’t be bought.
And at 13 against England, I don’t think he was too blame too much for not passing, as he really had limited options. Give him credit for breaking the line in the first place.
However, I think he would be more beneficial on the bench, offering an experienced head to finish off games for Australia.
Rob Horne: Pretty good defence and great effort. Tries his best for the team, but probably not the winger Australia needs going forward to the Rugby World Cup.
Israel Folau: High ball security isn’t quite what it was on last year’s tour. Great attacking impact. Pretty poor defensive impact.
Horrible, horrible kicking. If he gets his defensive positioning and kicking sorted, it would be fantastic for the Wallabies.
Benn and Ben: I don’t get it. I really don’t get it.
James Hanson: I thought he was more impressive than Faaing’a at the Reds, but at Test level, he really is nowhere near Fainga’a. Having said that, I thought he had a few good matches, especially in The Rugby Championship.
James Horwill: I read that he is injured, which wxplains why he hasn’t been featuring in the last few Tests. However, he hasn’t seemed to regain the impact of 2011 regardless. If somewhat back to his best, still Australia’s best option to partner Simmons at the moment.
Will Skelton: He definitely still needs plenty of work on his game. I think scoring a try against England might have done more negatives than positives as people would gloss over the work needed.
Yes, he is powerful, but the negatives (at the moment) definitely outweigh the positives. Australia loses too much when he comes on in place of another second-rower. As mentioned in another article, who knows what will happen by 2019?
For now though, definitely not the second-rower that Australia needs. The England game was telling as Jones was selected as first cover for Simmons. Skelton cannot be the Wallabies’ only bench cover for lock, which means Australia loses another option somewhere else to carry him in the team.
Luke Jones: I’d definitely have him ahead of Skelton! Conceded too many penalties/turnovers in his short time, though. Has to work on all that, particularly his body height. I thought he was pretty aggressive, though, which was good.
Matt Hodgson: I guess his strengths just don’t suit the current game-plan? Would have to say though, that what he brings to the team may not be enough to offset the poor performance of the forwards in general anyway, which might explain why he isn’t on the team.
I would definitely have had him in the side over McMahon, though, and if only he was good enough to start and hence be the captain… I don’t think that having him in place of Hooper would solve all of Australia’s problems, though.
Let’s say I think he featured so prominently for the Force because of the shortcomings of the rest of his team, so the additional impact to the Wallabies might not be as great.
Will Genia: I thought there was much more structure and calmness when he came on in games. No sparkle though. Let’s see how he goes at Super Rugby.
There were some inspired performances at the end of this season’s Super Rugby before he went for his operation.
The phases leading up to Foley’s drop-goal against Wales showed part of what he can offer. Let’s hope he gets his running game back.
He has also been a proven Test-level tackler, so you don’t lose anything defensively if he is chosen over Phipps.
Quade Cooper: I’m really impressed with his attitude on/off the field. I had a look at his Twitter feed just out of curiosity and what you get seems to be a really grounded, team-oriented guy, always thankful and a far cry from his previous persona.
I think those who have been judging him by past (pre-2013) performances have to start looking at what they get today. He definitely possesses a better tactical kicking game than Foley, or anyone else in Australia for that matter. (Still not the longest boot though)
Defence no longer an issue. He doesn’t lay on big hits like Toomua, but I think he actually defends better than Foley at the moment. There doesn’t seem to be any real unnecessary risk-taking either. He takes on the line, and his distribution much better than Foley as well. He has a great combination with Toomua.
Drop-goal? We know he can do it (against New Zealand last year). Goal-kicking? I don’t see a problem. Most of the kicks he had to make on last EOYT were also further out and more to the side than what Foley has kicked this season. I don’t think he missed any of the few kicks he had to make on this EOYT?
Can he do it over 80 minutes? We will only know if he gets a chance to do it.
Looking at the Rugby World Cup, my opinion is that Cooper has to be at 10 over Foley if both are fit, unless Foley improves out of sight next season and Cooper is static.
Henry Speight: Has shown glimpses of positivity. Should get better as he becomes more familiar with the set-up.
Joe Tomane: Also solid enough to be in the squad. Pity he didn’t get more time to show what he can do.
Kurtley Beale: Sure didn’t show us anything to justify why he is among the best 30 in Oz at the moment. No comment regarding off-field issues as I (and many others here) don’t know all the facts.
Other thoughts:
I really hope Michael Cheika has something a little more varied than the current plan. I don’t see Australia getting out of the group at Rugby World Cup with the current plan.
Kicking is so important at Test level. I think some supporters should re-watch all classic Oz matches and see how important good tactical kicking was/is, even though it was always only the sublime backline moves that were remembered.
The fact that Cheika is going to coach both the Waratahs and Australia seems like a really bad idea. I have nothing against him or the Waratahs (really enjoyed their entertaining style and wins this season), but there are just going to be so many problems going forward, it can hardly be the optimal set-up.
The back three (all current alternatives) are really slow. It would be great if there were no defensive problems, but now Australia has neither pace nor defensive solidity.
Their power and aggression is debatable as well. The back three are also really poor at catching and kicking, compared to those from other major teams. This is something that has to be worked out.
The scrum is unbelievably poor. I don’t think it’s the starting front-row’s problem. It is really the back five (Simmons a more minor offender than the rest). This has to be sorted out. It actually really reminds me of the ‘Tahs scrum this year. I hope Cheika doesn’t think that it isn’t a problem.
Well, there you go. I look forward to the Roarers’ opinions on my opinions!
Bfc
Guest
Agree with the suggestion that the coach of the Reds (Graham) will be under some pressure to deliver decent performances. The 2015 Reds squad has a lot of backline strike power, and the signings of Hunt and O'Connor adds to that...assuming all are fit (lots of injuries in 2014..) of course! The signing of Thomson and Tui can only add to the forward pack and Graham has decent competition for starting spots, with some new props (eg.Paraka) also getting attention due to NRC perfromances. Hope Gill has an injury free run... If Graham can't get this squad to perform he may not last until 2016:)
Dannyray
Guest
"There’s a reason he doesn’t have the experience, it’s taken him this long to get good enough to get the experience". This long to get good enough hey ? The guy isn't exactly over the hill. When he started out, he might not have had the skills - BECAUSE HE WAS STARTING OUT.... It's akin to saying when QC was in under 8's, he was in the B's, because he wasn't good enough to make the A's. For this reason I don't think he's any good.... BF, Despite being one of the very top kickers in S15, receiving man of the match awards, playing an integral role in the team, you don't like him. Absolutely fine, but to me it seems you concoct excuses to justify your view. Just like this "experience" nonsense. For the record, I think the "experience" of going on these tours to the Northern hemisphere does make players better or at least realise there are other ways to play the game. That may very well help BF improve, just as it may help QC and Genia improve coming back from injury. In the case of Berrick Barnes, he also had skills that meant he could play a variety of positions which I don't think is the case for QC.
Train Without A Station
Guest
His age of debut is relevant. People point to his lack of experience as a defense, so he will get better. There's a reason he doesn't have the experience, it's taken him this long to get good enough to get the experience. He started out stuck behind Daniel Halangahu to play 10 FFS. Berrick Barnes was lauded as a future Wallaby captain, and his whole career basically went on a downward spiral because Cooper was talented enough (I didn't think he performed well enough at the time to warrant it though) to push Barnes to 12 for the Reds.
Dannyray
Guest
Train - I see Foley as playing quite a different style to QC.I don't judge QC any differently to any other player. If he's messing up, then he should be dropped I have the same view for Foley, if he's not playing well, then he too should be dropped. I think he's had a pretty solid year though, whether in S15 or Wallabies. QC seems to have massively changed his attitude & even a more mature player on the field, taking far fewer bad options. I am a fan, but don't think he should automatically usurp BF with such little game time under his belt. The Autumn internationals were a perfect place for him to come back into the test arena to get his test skills back unto scratch. Same goes for Genia, although he appears to be a little behind QC in terms of getting back to his best. Your point about the age factor of BF starting in SR at the age of 23 is irrelevant. Players mature / develop skills at varying rates, thankfully.
Dannyray
Guest
Agreed LR. Folau particularly better suited on the wing I think too. Nothing stopping him coming in looking for the ball in broken play like Ioane used to. Beale a utility back but probably best suited to back 3 than 10 or 12.
LikesRugby
Guest
I think the saddest thing is that I can't see any of the videos on the Roar... haha
LikesRugby
Guest
As grapeseed mentions above, Horne has been doing really well. I still don't agree he is fast (recall a couple of matches where he was caught easily after breaks outside), but as I mentioned, all the alternatives aren't really that fast either. At the moment, I would have him in the squad as a winger/centre back-up... but that's just my opinion. Once again, as grapeseed mentioned much earlier... there's many months of SR to come... and who knows what the situation will be at the end of it (injuries, recoveries, form, etc.) You can say what you want about JOC, but on the field for the Wallabies, I think he has always been one of the best in the recent barren years. I think he was probably the best-performing back at RWC'11 for the wallabies too. I would have JOC at fullback, Folau and Speight on the wings. I think there is more balance there.
LikesRugby
Guest
Hi Harry, an honour to hear your kind words!
Train Without A Station
Guest
People love to talk about Foley playing flat as if it's some revolutionary thing, and that therefore his high error rate should be accepted. In 2010/2011 Cooper played the same way. Guess what? It yielded about as many errors. Because playing flat is high risk. The only difference was Cooper was (at the time, very rightly) less likable so people were happy to burn him at the stake and say he needs to adjust his game to be more controlled, with less errors to suit test rugby. He's done that, and now people are saying Foley is the better option because he plays like Cooper did 3 years ago minus the great long passing. I'm not saying Foley should be harshly judged. I am though saying that Foley should be harshly judged by the same people that harshly judge Quade. And I'm betting you're one of them. People want to point to Foley's inexperience and say people should persevere with him. He's a year younger than Quade Cooper. Yes, he has less experience. But there's a reason, he was never good enough to get selected when he was younger. The fact that Foley was not really good enough to make his Super Rugby debut until he was 23 isn't something to defend him for his short comings with.
Train Without A Station
Guest
The Reds pack was strong in the set piece. Around the ground it was poor. In their most successful seasons it was the opposite. Much like the Waratahs in 2014. Their scrum and line out regressed from it's peak under Foley. This pretty clearly shows that set piece isn't a huge factor in Super Rugby. That does not apply to test rugby. A poor scrum can see you penalized out of the game. Probably part of the reason why even when the Reds were the form team, Deans would try to pick a pack heavy with Waratahs (Robinson, TPN, Kepu, Douglas, Timani, Dennis, Palu when available). What works at Super Rugby level doesn't necessarily work at test level. Anyway, the Reds locks managed to outplay Skelton in that game. 3 of the pack were Reds. Slipper, Fainga'a and Simmons. Horwill was generally a reserve.
Jason K
Guest
Hello fellow outsider! I watch and enjoy rugby from the USA. Have to dial up games on YouTube and watch a lot of low-resolution matches, but at least I get my rugby fix.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
I'm not "hell bent on QC". I have simply said that Foley's goal kicking is good. But you need to be a great goal kicker to be selected on goal kicking alone. And he's not. You have acknowledged his % is not the best. That's because he isn't. Of course he's kicked more shots, as he's taken more shots, and in the team that scored the most tries of course he's taken the most. You love trying to claim I'm provincially biased, yet in my best 23 (no injuries) I would only select 4 reds (Slipper, Horwill, Simmons & Cooper) and given the chance I consistently defend Hooper over Gill.
Dannyray
Guest
Train, That may well be a factor in deciding to take the kick for touch or kick at goal, but if it is, the stats suggest otherwise. You've got the top goal kicker in the S15 comp (not absolute top % but certainly kicking the most goals for a high percentage) and you're choosing to not take relatively easy kicks at goal ? That seems to be a mistake and one a lot of people have criticised Hooper for. I bet if you did some analysis you'd find that BF really is the top goal kicker in the comp in terms of a Z-score. "If you can’t be confident enough to throw them the ball anywhere past halfway, then they are not a great goal kicker. End of story. We aren’t discussing one game opting against kicking for goal. We are discussing a whole super rugby and test season of it". Saying he's not a good goal kicker because he can't kick it when he's his own side of the half seems to be a bit nitpicky to me. As the stats seem to suggest - which you wanted me to explore, clearly indicate he is the best kicker in the comp, yet you still think he's only average ? OK - so he can't kick a really long range goal. How many kicks are made from beyond the half way anyhow ? As I said earlier, QC wasn't taking long range shots at goal either. I've had enough of this "discussion". You are just hellbent on QC, whereas I'm for either player who's in form or the right choice Vs a certain opposition. That includes CLL. The best player just happened to be BF who has been "solid" pretty much all year. Yes he has some limitations but who doesn't ? I seem to recall QC being an absolute speed bump at times in terms of his defensive capabilities, as well as making very questionable calls on throwing passes in the wrong situation. You don't seem to focus on these limitations ? Anyhow, I'm happy to see QC return to 10 for Wallabies, so long as he deserves it. With a little more game time, he could well be deserving of a go. I'm off.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
And Dannyray, what do to think was a factor in deciding to kick for goal or take a line out? The likelihood of the kicker actually kicking it perhaps? Having a great goal kicker is an excellent asset in a test team. If you can't be confident enough to throw them the ball anywhere past halfway, then they are not a great goal kicker. End of story. We aren't discussing one game opting against kicking for goal. We are discussing a whole super rugby and test season of it. Of course you dismiss Cooper's stats as being too small a sample size as it doesn't prove your point. The fact is we have from the last 3 RC tests of 2013 through to QC getting injured in 2014 to refer too. Once we are looking at a period of more than 5 or so games the only relevance of the sample size is when comparing totals, not percentages.
Dandaman
Roar Rookie
Reminds me of Nick Cummins with good defense and committed running. However I would rate Cummins above Horne and hope that he is eligible next year because he brings something sorely lacking, a sense of humour and fun!!
Michael J.
Guest
Not sarcasm at all. 93% of all players are based in NSW and QLD.
Kibz
Guest
This was great review of the team, very objective and I felt you were very fair. As a scrum loving tighthead, I feel like Slipper and Kepu combined well with faingaa, add. Moore, Sio, Weeks and. Holmes ad you have a capable front row for the World Cup. Now if Cheika can get the back 5 to stay engaged I the scrums for at least 8-10 seconds then the likelihood of giving away penalties and chucks of the field will drop. Again, great read!!
grapeseed
Guest
Week to week the Force often had the best forward pack in the Australian conference and, occasionally, the whole comp. Their set piece and breakdown work led to a lot of victories. There is a reason why Cheika asked Foley to help out with the Wallabies, Foley was Australia's best forwards coach since McKenzie did the job for Sir Rod in 2000/1 and the Wallabies won the trinations, bledisloe and beat the BIL Lions.
grapeseed
Guest
I think Toomua has been the standout 12 over the past 18 months for the Wallabies... Yet I can't shake this feeling that our real 12 is yet to reveal himself. JOC - moves in traffic, great acceleration and strong playmaking skills including short passing and kicking game. Kuridrani - advantage line runner with great offload and would put on some big defensive hits in that channel. Hunt - strong all around game, will have the courage to play right up on the gain line, unsure about his secondary playmaking skills in rugby. I also think Bernard Foley (played really well in space at FB for the Waratahs), Folau (imagine having a 12 who makes a half break every single time he gets the ball in midfield), Quade Cooper (seems bigger and more physical to me these days) and even Giteu would all make a good fist of it in the mid field. Bring back wallaby trial games, cut four weeks out of our ridiculously long SR season. Let's do some experimentation.
markjohnconley
Guest
Top thread, one of the best I've read on this site. Agree 99%!