As we touched on in Part I of our Rugby World Cup preview, Wales appear to have peaked at the wrong time. After building success with Six Nations triumphs in 2012 and 2013, Wales have been on a downward spiral.
Ever since the end of the 2013 Six Nations, Wales’ performances have been quite flat and their tactics seem tired.
>> 2015 Rugby World Cup Fixtures
This may be attributable to post-Lions tour fatigue, as Wales had the largest contingent of players on the tour to Australia.
They are not helped by the fact that other teams seem to have figured their game plan out. The best example of this was in their most recent Six Nations game against Ireland. Ireland gave everyone else the perfect blueprint for a victory over Wales.
They completely nullified every threat that the Welsh bring by pressurising their set-piece (thereby not allowing them quick ball), pushing up aggressively on Jamie Roberts in midfield (thereby not allowing them to get over the gain line), and by dominating territory by kicking the ball in behind their huge wingers (who, while devastating with ball in hand, were shown up to be quite slow on the turn).
The Welsh coaching ticket seemed to recognise the shortcomings of their game plan after that Six Nations Championship, as they attempted to be more expansive in their first two games of the most recent November series, which were against Australia and Fiji.
This proved to be a foolish decision, as throwing the ball around suited both of those teams.
In fact, taking into account two missed placekicks, Wales could almost have lost to Fiji.
Gatland and co. then reverted to Warrenball against New Zealand, which proved to be more effective.
Another problem for Wales is that, despite being able to raise their intensity levels sufficiently, they struggle to maintain the necessary composure to close out games against the big three of New Zealand, South Africa and Australia.
Although they stayed with New Zealand for 67 minutes, displaying good intensity and aggression in their most recent game against them, they were blown away thereafter.
They haven’t managed a win over Australia in their last ten attempts, despite coming close on several occasions. This is difficult to put a positive spin on, given the Wallabies’ wretched 2012 form.
As for their recent victory over South Africa, they panicked badly towards the end of the game, despite what biased Welsh pundits in certain quarters of the media would have you believe.
The best example of this panic was when South Africa were awarded a penalty in the 77th minute, and Handré Pollard kicked the ball too far.
It should have gone out behind the dead-ball area, but instead Scott Williams slapped it down, and in an effort to try and control the ball, ended up kicking it out behind the dead-ball line, giving South Africa a five-metre scrum.
Wales won this game because of the staggering amount of errors that South Africa made, not because they showed the composure that is required to close out a tight game against a top-level team. However, the victory itself will no doubt boost their confidence going forward.
Gatland has a clear idea of his starting XV, but there are question marks over their best half-back pairing.
Mike Phillips’ physicality and sniping threat are vital to Gatland’s game plan, but he seems to be in decline.
Rhys Webb has gone up a level in terms of his performances and has overtaken Philips as Wales’ first-choice 9, but he does not have the same physicality as Philips. Physicality is crucial to Gatland’s game plan.
Another issue for Wales is that it is not clear who their best out-half is. Dan Biggar has an excellent tactical kicking game, while Rhys Priestland (who is also good at the tactical kicking aspect of out-half play) is a better running out-half who gets more out of his back line by playing closer to the gain line.
However, the latter’s inconsistent form and proneness to injury mean that picking Dan Biggar as their starting ten would be a more sensible, low-risk (if a little mundane) option for Wales.
Biggar’s recent form in the most recent November series further warrants his selection as Wales’ first-choice out-half.
Wales’ chances of even making it out of the pool stages of next year’s World Cup are not good, considering that they have England and Australia in their pool. These are two teams who appear to be in the ascendency over them, even taking England’s poor form into account.
However, a friendly fixture list in next year’s Six Nations Championship with Ireland and England at home may yet prove to be a springboard for good performances in the World Cup.
Wardad
Guest
Dont get why Wales deserve a part 2 according to this bloke .SA and NZ barely rate a mention.
Dan
Guest
Phillips' physicality was hugely used, but clearly not crucial, certainly worth mentioning however. As to how to the difference between the Kiwi victory and Aussie loss against England, I agree that tactical kicking was hugely important. In one match England had a scrum half who famously can't box kick (and shouldn't be expected to), and an out of form fly half who was kicking poorly. In the other England had a scrum half who can kick very well (shame he can't pass) and the in-form flyhalf of the Aviva premiership, who was putting in inch perfect kicks for territory. Would have been interesting to see what that single change at 10 would have made against the Kiwis. Going to be a hell of a pool come the RWC.
Not Bothered
Guest
I would suggest there is no confusion over the halfback pairing at all. It is Dan Biggar and Webb. The authors suggestion that Phillips physicality is crucial is, imo, nonsense. Biggar is clearly miles ahead of Preistland and was Wales best player in the AIs. "Hmmm, our 2 best performing players recently have been Webb and Biggar but Im thinking about dropping them" Its not going to happen and Biggar and Webb have been a revelation.
Not Bothered
Guest
Imo Biggat is a better 10 and Williams and Halfpenny are better fullbacks. Imo if he makes the 23 it will be as 22 but injury and form plays its part. You cant be serious about West being the 2nd choice 10 for NZ.
Glyndwr
Guest
Came close to Australia on several occasions - try every occasion. Lets not forget that in all bar 3 of the last 10 they have been on the EOYT - Aus coming off the back of an extended competition time together, Wales precious little prep. The Ire win in RWC 2011 is a better indicator of what Aus can expect when teams have had significant prep time. Wal and Eng to qualify
Glyndwr
Guest
Upgrade D and coach. Sorry! Completely misguided. Upgrade the A and coach. Now we're talking. Howlers is a disaster.
canadiankiwi
Guest
Didn't Australia lose to England only two weeks or so after the All Blacks showed them how to beat England? England is beatable but you have to gain parity in the scrum to have any chance at it. Then you force England to play with the ball in their own end, which they are uncomfortable with, through accurate tactical kicking. Do these sound like Wallabies' strengths- scrummaging and tactical kicking? The Wallabies should beat Wales, if they can improve their scrum and gain parity. Wales' tight five is not as big and dominant as England's so this is possible. This is the test they need to target as MUST win, along with Fiji. This gets them into the QFs against South Africa.
Akari
Roar Rookie
Thanks for that analysis, JC. Wales may yet make it past the pool stage except Cheika may have other plans for them. England is beatable and the ABs might have shown both Wales and the WBs how to do so at the so-called Fortress Twickers.
RobC
Roar Guru
Thanks for part 2. Yes, they have been predicable: -I believe the way forward is to use Warrenball as the base game -Make better use of back five, like Reds Cheetahs Chiefs do, to draw in defenders before unleashing backline or blindside -Upgrade their defensive patterns / coach.
firstxv
Guest
Well in his defence Anscombe played a largely in the pocket 10 role in Auckland then chooses to express himself when he gets the shove. Its a pity JK didn't work with him more on it. It was i retaining players like Francis Sai'ili that meant Fekitoa went but I agree how he wasn't implessed by Fekitoa's Auckland's ITM form that year I'll never know. He was in stunning form. Auckland seem jinxed not to have good 10's since Spencer and only now is it that West offers some hope. I think he'll push ahead of some of the 4 we have in the 10 queue quite quickly, particularly with his goalkicking. He and Cruden play similar games and I wouldnt mind seeing them both as next years 10's for he sake of continuity alone. But back to he post Wales is the interesting one at the mo. We know England will be strong, perhaps not as strong as 2012 lead us to believe. We know Ireland and Scotland are on an upward curve. Wales are now the hot and cold team, the box of chocolates, and could do anything...with France that is...
canadiankiwi
Guest
There is no chance of Anscombe unseating Leigh Halfpenny at 15. However, I agree that he has a good shot at starting at 10. Anscombe has always been a good tactical and goal kicking 10 but his stint with the Chiefs playing 15 has revealed a running game he did not show when playing for the Blues. How great a selector is John Kirwin eh? First he chases away Anscombe from the Blues and then Malakai Fekitoa. I wonder who is next? Francis Saili'i?
firstxv
Guest
whatever gets him there... I think he's one for 'proving people wrong'...at his best he's better than anything Wales have used bar Priestlands 2011 form. He'll have gone there partially to prove NZ selectors JK and the ABs wrong and despite his form fluctuations think he could have been supported a bit better here, particularly while in Auckland, and no beter stage to do that on than in the World cup. Wish him well.
moaman
Guest
{" Anscombe will be the Welsh 10"} Think that should read..."the Wales 10" since he is about as welsh as you or I! ;-)
firstxv
Guest
Although he hasn't started that well with Cardiff I think Anscombe will be the Welsh 10, or if not fullback during the World cup campaign. Welsh 10's have a notorious rate in terms of consistency, Biggar the latest flavour.
canadiankiwi
Guest
If Wales adopts England's game plan vs Australia, based on scrum dominance, driving mauls, and goal kicking, they are 50/50 to knock out Australia and finish second in their pool behind England. This presumes that Wales suffers no injury crisis as they are very thin at hooker, lock, number 8, and centers.
Harry Jones
Expert
Solid look at Wales. They are more dependent than any other team w a chance at the RWC on their top 5 players. I also think Cheika can figure them out. OZ will struggle more w ENG bc Eng can choke the life out of a game better than Wales