Sitting at a glorious world ranking of 100, just one win in their past ten games and relying on Tim Cahill like an elderly man does on a walking stick, it’s hard to see the Socceroos as Asian Cup favourites.
Yet, despite these facts and figures my brain struggles to ignore, my heart says Australia can and will win the Asian Cup.
Is it Aussie pride that makes my heart beat so defiantly? Absolutely. A touch of undying optimism? Perhaps.
But above all there lies foundations of confidence and strategy bestowed on me by Socceroos coach Ange Postecoglou that make me believe Australia will follow the lead of the Western Sydney Wanderers and conquer Asia.
There’s something about the Socceroos coach that instills an undying sense of self-belief. Prior to the World Cup he had me hoping and dreaming, and despite not quite fulfilling such fantasies, the Socceroos performance was spiriting.
On the eve of the Asian Cup, Socceroos form has been equally unconvincing as it was in the build-up to the World Cup. A narrow 3-2 win against Saudi Arabia was a rare and rather fortunate highlight.
So why is it I believe Australia can and will be claimed Asian Champions?
Coaching
With a win ratio of just 16.67 per cent it would be ludicrous to call Ange Postecoglou’s initial tenure as Socceroos coach successful. But much like a gardner faced with unseasonable conditions, Ange’s garden is on the verge of blossoming as a direct result of initially wintery conditions.
With a young garden bed full of thorny roses and fragile daisies, Ange seems to be nurturing them all.
Having exposed them to 6-0 shellackings at the hands of France and Brazil, the Socceroos team although lacking wins, now knows how to lose. An important trait for any footballer. Forced to endure countless balls hitting the back of their own net and the dissatisfied groans of their own supporters, the current Socceroos squad is now starved for a win.
With blood potentially being spilt early on in the Cup, expect the squad to tear into their opposition as ravenously as a rookie vegetarian when they glimpse some alluring meat.
The Australian squad are also so much more resilient due to the hard road Ange has decided to take them on. Now when they concede a goal, rather than slumping in defeat, they should rally and push for the equaliser and winner, a skill that has long been missing from their resume as an international side.
While people, myself included, may fear Ange has put too heavy a weight on the shoulders of his men to a point wear they can’t stand upright, I remind you and myself, of the experience Ange has as a coach.
With more than 250 games under his belt, it’s fair to say he knows what he’s doing.
In case you or I need more convincing here’s a quote from basketball coach Morgan Wootten, “You learn more from losing than winning. You learn how to keep going.”
A quote I feel suits the Socceroos quite nicely. Having stuck with relatively the same squad for over 18 months, Ange is ensuring the squad he has are able to pick themselves up after a defeat.
Long isolated in the pleasant waters of Oceania football, Ange has thrown his squad into the icy depths to ensure they are able to stay afloat in the rather tepid waters of Asian football. Let’s just hope our boys find the water just right.
Players
A lot has been said about the Socceroos ageing roster, so much so I won’t go into too much detail.
I feel Ange has found a perfect middle ground between desperately hanging on to old stars and attempting to forcefully forge new ones.
So just who can score the goals, make the pass, ensure the tackle and pull of the save?
Up front the Socceroos have plenty of options. Veteran Tim Cahill has an uncanny ability to score when needed. Nathan Burns is in the form of his life for the Wellington Phoenix. Tomi Juric arguably sealed Asian success for his club side.
Matthew Leckie and Tommy Oar are quality players with invaluable World Cup experience under their belt and are just waiting for their moment to shine.
In midfield we have Crystal Palace rock and captain Mile Jedinak, rated as the seventh best EPL player so far this season. To accompany him is the electric Tommy Oar along with young guns Terry Antonis and James Troisi.
If you prefer experience over youth, throw in old albeit misfiring guns Matt McKay, Mark Milligan and even the bolded beauty that is Mark Bresciano. Regardless of your preference, all are capable of making that cutting pass or cross that can ensure Socceroos success.
Defence is where things get a little bit shaky and have me just a touch worried. Aside from proven war-horse Matthew Spiranovic, the Socceroos back line is less than experienced.
Although Chris Herd and Jason Davidson have both attracted international interest, a lack of game time and inexperience aren’t the best combo leading up to such a competition. But perhaps the lesser known defenders can stake their claim with Ivan Franjic, Alex Wilkinson and Trent Sainsbury all capable of making a game saving tackle and boasting much more first team football in recent months than Herd and Davidson combined.
Between the posts, Matt Ryan has long been seen as the logical option but with Mitch Langerak and Eugene Galkovic getting plenty of game time and strutting their stuff with the gloves, no-one is quite sure who Ange is going to favour.
I would honestly take any of them and am simply relieved the days of relying on just one keeper are over.
Location, Location, Location
Although often proving false, (heck, just look at what happened to Brazil at the World Cup) the fact the Asian Cup is being played on our shores is an undeniable advantage. Played in our own summery backyard, the Socceroos are gifted stadiums full of Aussies and conditions their opponents will struggle to adapt to.
While not ensuring victory, home ground advantage should give the boys the cutting edge they often lack. All in all let’s just hope our hosting of the event doesn’t end as badly as it did for Brazil with the 2014 World Cup; a 701 semi-final defeat might not go down so kindly here in a country just starting to love their football.
The Opposition
Australia just seems to have a knack of drawing tough groups. And although lucky to avoid the Blue Samurais of Japan, the Socceroos do face the ever dangerous South Korea, unpredictable Kuwait and Middle-East battlers Oman in Group A.
According to FIFA Rankings our boys are outsiders for qualification into the knockout stage with South Korea well ahead of our boys, sitting at an all-time low of 69th and Oman a respectable 93.
The Socceroos are currently at 100 in the world, thankfully open their campaign against 123rd ranked Kuwait. Still a quality opponent however, Kuwait should provide a great test for our boys, either limbering them up for future matches or breaking their spirit before it had a chance to form.
Regardless of the potential threats the Socceroos face in their group, our boys in green and gold are in a much better situation than they were in the World Cup. I expect them to make light work of these early fixtures, willing they can emulate the same determination they showed in Brazil.
The real threat to Asian Cup success for Australia lies in it’s current holders, Japan. With sword firmly in hand, the Blue Samurai have an ability to skewer us unlike any other side.
Fresh off their 2-1 win over the Socceroos in November, Japan could, depending on results, meet our boys in either the semis or final. This, in my opinion, would be the biggest obstacle Australia has to clear in search of Asian Cup success. Once cleared though, I’m confident the Socceroos can leap their way to Asian triumph.
So while I could continue all day in defence of my unwavering Australian footballing optimism, I’ll leave it to the Socceroos to prove my case.
concerned supporter
Guest
I just came across this Fussball yesterday by mistake. He would be the worst possible ambassador for soccer. Except for the converted he would seriously irritate others His main captive audience would be soccer moms. 40 years of SMELLING THE FEAR.
Bondy
Guest
Good old AR I assume you've had a few tonight perhaps a few to many . Decent crowd at the football last night hey ....
AR
Guest
Ahh...Fussball continues to be endlessly ironic (without ever meaning to be). He bemoans anyone commenting on soccer unless they're an expert or appreciate the game. They simply can't understand the nuance, can they?!! And yet, he giggles about cricket: "they wear tailored long trousers & cardigans… and stop regularly to sip tea & have sandwiches!!" Indeed, the historical quirks and traditions of a sport known as "the gentlemens game" are certainly unique. Its played in venues such as Lords, Newlands, the SCG, and dozens of other historical grounds around the world. It has rules most Germans or Americans would find baffling. I say, thank god sports like this, with all their quirky traditions. Bear in mind, Fuss is a man who thinks the Hyundai Aleague is the be all and end all (a comp many soccer fans dont bother with) so its amusing to hear such sophisticated analysis of a 200 year old sport like cricket from someone like this. But again, I return to his point - if the kiddies version of cricket (in its 4th year) is utterly dwarfing the ALeague in crowds and tv, what on earth is Fussball going on about screaming "smell the fear"..?
punter
Guest
Bondy, I have no idea, there are many traditional cricket fans who don't like T20 like myself & I'm sure there some T20 fans who find Test cricket too long & slow, there are also those who like both. Like Casper says T20 is just a form of Cricket, like beach football or Futsal is a form of football, difference being I don't think there is any crossovers between the sports in Football at the professional level, eg, not many professional footballers playing professionally at Beach football or Futsal. Also Football is here to stay & while the much smaller beach football & futsal will always be in their shadow. Cricket however is different, Test cricket is really only still big in Australia, England & Sth Africa, they are only countries still pulling crowds in Test cricket, while T20 is getting bigger in all cricket countries, especially in India.
Casper
Guest
Fussball - I like Richard Hinds but it sounds like he needs to get of his high horse. T20 is just a form of cricket, not a completely different sport. Honestly don't know why people have a problem with it. I'm pretty sure that you have previously said that you like Futsal and beach soccer. They are just cut down versions of the real thing, just like T20 is.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
I'm with you James, it is both disrespectful (and a little bit ignorant) to run with an incorrect name. The name is the name.
Bondy
Guest
Punter Does the BBL affect crowds or audiences against Test Match Cricket do they eat into one another commercially , just wondering ....
Casper
Guest
Fussball - you seem to know a lot about the BBL for a guy that doesn't watch cricket. It must irk you that it has once again obliterated the A League.
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
@concerned supporter My German friends laughed when they saw cricket. A match that goes on for 5 days, the players are so aerobically challenged during the contest that they wear tailored long trousers & cardigans... and stop regularly to sip tea & have sandwiches!! Yeah.. Germans & cricket.. I laughed & laughed. You may want to review your notion of the dour German football ethos. In particular, have a look at a match played on 8 July 2014, at Estádio Mineirão, Belo Horizonte. ------------ @Casper I've never watched even 1 second of BBL. But, I do follow Richard Hinds on Twitter & he provides terrific insights into the absurdity of this "sport".
concerned supporter
Guest
Fussball, My German mate circa 1980 said that if Germany took cricket seriously, every Test Match involving Germany (East or West in those days) would result in a draw. That is their nature in Germany. BTW I do not HATE soccer.It,like most sports encourages and fosters Friendships, Teamwork,Loyalty and especially exercise.I do not find it particularly entertaining, to each his own..
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
"if a meaningless vaudeville Mickey Mouse smoke and light sideshow is attracting 10 x the amount of tv interest that the ALeague then what does that say about the ALeague?" In Australia, "Big Brother" attracted TV ratings 10x higher than "The West Wing". It tells us nothing about the quality of the underlying show. It tells us a lot about the quality of commercial TV viewer in Australia. For sure A-League needs to increase viewing amongst the 2 million football fans in Australia. In my opinion, A-League should not even attempt to attract the audience that is currently watching BBL. Let's be honest, anyone who is entertained by BBL as a sporting contest will NEVER appreciate the nuanced beauty of football. (And, from what I read, many people who love Test cricket despise T20). If you need contrived theatre - flashing lights, BMX bike tricks & juggling - to keep you entertained whilst watching sport, you're never going to appreciate the raw & real tension of a 0-0 draw.
AR
Guest
Ok, so you think the BBL is vaudeville - a comment which is not that far from my own, above: "every night the BBL (a fluro kids comp that *most* people might describe as meaningless)..." But if you're right, here's your problem... You say it's "game over" for cricket. (Btw Gallop made similar sounds last year and he looked like a goose too). But if a meaningless vaudeville Mickey Mouse smoke and light sideshow is attracting 10 x the amount of tv interest that the ALeague can...and its "game over" for cricket...then what does that say about the ALeague?
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
@AR Got to laugh when anyone mentions the Big Bogan League as a legitimate sport. It's basically 21st century vaudeville - blokes with bright pyjamas hitting a ball with smoke & light shows to tell people when to cheer. If you get bored with that you can watch guys on BMX bikes, or jugglers, or blokes wearing empty KFC buckets trying to catch a ball, or make a beer snake. T20 is the very evidence that the sport of cricket is dying. What's next? Maybe a T1 version when people get sick of T20? Just have each side bat 1 over? Maybe even have each side face just 1 ball? The bogan public have very short attention spans.
AR
Guest
"it really is GAME OVER for the meaningless sports in Australia. SMELL THE FEAR!" Meaningless? Really? Truly, Fuss must be a teenager. First, *teams* win or lose, not sports. Talking about one sport "winning" and another sport "losing" is just juvenile code-war rhetoric, and probably the most meaningless comment a person could make. Second, even if that *is* how he thinks, then looking at his own sport, or club, should have him talking with a tad more circumspection. Melb Victory - the biggest club in Australia - playing in its biggest game of the year - the Melb derby - managed to attract a national television audience of just 63,000 people. Meanwhile, every night the BBL (a fluro kids comp that *most* people might describe as meaningless) is attracting at least 10 x that amount. Now, this doesnt mean soccer is winning or losing. Or cricket for that matter. But it does mean that Fussball's "Smell the fear" campaign is about as meaningless as any teenager could dream up.
Evan Askew
Guest
@ William Dalton Davis. With all due respect there will be a certain percentage of people who go to the world cup or watch the national team who don't really have any love for football. To illustrate my point I can share a personal anecdote from when I went to see the 2008 world cup qualifier against Iraq in Brisbane. I was in a mad dash to get myself a drink before the game started and one of the other patrons said to me, "what are you in a such a hurry for, its only soccer." to which I replied, if you don't like soccer then what the hell are you doing here. The reply to that, "an excuse to get on the piss." That is the mindset of a certain percentage of people who attend national team games or go to the world cup.
Bondy
Guest
Get a life TC ..
concerned supporter
Guest
Fussball, Meanwhile the snoring you can hear in the corner, is the sleeping soccer giant who was supposed to awaken and rain sporting upheaval upon us all when we qualified for the Cup finals. You remember. When we beat Uruguay, rugby league, rugby union and Australian Football would be stricken from the sporting lexicon and Soccer would blossom gloriously in the warm embrace of the Southern Cross. This applies to 1973/1974 when the socceroos first qualified for the World Cup. I have been SMELLING THE FEAR for 40 years.
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
@concerned supporter The fact you bothered to log in to read a Football discussion, scrolled through all the opinions & then post your thoughts tells me Football has already won. If people who hate The Game are compelled to engage in discussion, it really is GAME OVER for the meaningless sports in Australia. SMELL THE FEAR! :-D
Bondy
Guest
Though with a nil all scoreline the game remains a close affair to its completion, guessing whether one teams going to beat another team by 30-50 points can't be an exhilarating experience you know the outcome before its started really. To each their own I guess...
punter
Guest
WOW!!! I think the yawn yawn was for your post.