Super Rugby SA conference preview : The Lions

The Lions have historically been the fifth best franchise in the South African conference, stretching from their first season in the competition as Transvaal in 1996 to their most recent campaign in 2014 as the Lions.

They were combined with the Cheetahs to form the Cats in 1998 and were separated again in 2006. They have been the least successful side in Super Rugby after achieving the wooden spoon on six separate occasions.

In 2013 the Lions were relegated to make way for the Southern Kings after finishing in last place in 2012 as per agreement with the South African Rugby Union, but reclaimed their spot in the southern hemisphere premiership by beating the Southern Kings in a two-round relegation series prior to the 2014 Super Rugby season.

The Lions call the city of Johannesburg their home and reside in the South African fortress of Ellis Park, now known as Emirates Airline Park, a stadium with a capacity of 62,567. Despite being the premier rugby union stadium in the country they have a low average attendance of 18,590.

In South Africa’s domestic competition, the Currie Cup, the Golden Lions rank as the third most successful province with ten premiership titles since 1892. They are only bettered by the 23 titles of the Blue Bulls and the historical leaders of domestic South African rugby, Western Province who have 33 titles to their name.

They have had a tough time in Super Rugby with a highest ever finish of fifth place in 1997, not including their seven years as the Cats, and have ended the seasons at the bottom of the table in six campaigns. Since 1996 the Lions have finished 10th, 5th, 13th, 12th, 14th, 12th, 14th, 14th, 15th and last year’s result of 12th after winning seven games and losing nine.

The Lions, however, had a point to prove after being relegated in 2013 and made a huge statement to their South African counterparts in the 2014 Currie Cup season by finishing second on the ladder behind eventual champions Western Province, winning seven of their games and losing only three before going down disappointingly in the final at Newlands by a score of 19 points to 16.

The Lions have had a great change of attitude since their relegation with their team dynamic evolving into a very family-like attitude. Watching them right throughout the 2014 season you could see that they have become a positive outfit with the players playing for themselves, for each other and for their fans right across the country. Johan Ackerman, my personal choice for South African coach of the year, has well and truly made a big difference to the traditionally woeful team.

Like the Cheetahs, the Lions play a good brand of entertaining, attacking rugby, but where the difference lies between the two teams is in their defensive organisation and good set-piece gameplay.

In 2014 the Lions had the best scrummaging statistics in both the Super Rugby competition and the Currie Cup, as well as the third best lineout in Super Rugby. Their front row of Schalk van der Merwe, Robbie Coetzee and Julian Redelinghuys is a dynamic unit that will no doubt have a big influence on their campaign this year. They are the very best scrummaging side that can also run the ball which separates them from most South African frontrows like those of the Bulls and Sharks.

Their loose-trio of Jaco Kriel, Derrick Minnie and Warren Whiteley are also different from the traditional South African loose-forward combinations in that all three are very mobile and highly skilful. Minnie, who is the designated openside flanker and fetcher, serves as the breakdown specialist while Kriel and Whiteley look to run in open spaces and link with their support players in very much the same vein as the New Zealand loose-forwards do.

If the Lions can emulate their Currie Cup form which saw them as losing finalists, the Lions can certainly make the cut in Super Rugby 2015. In saying that, this is also not the first time that the Lions have been excellent in the Currie Cup, only to falter the next year in Super Rugby as in 2011 when they won the Currie Cup only to end up dead last in Super Rugby 2012.

2015 Season Preview:
The Lions open their Super Rugby campaign with a home game against the Wellington based Hurricanes in Johannesburg before facing the Sharks at Kings Park. After that they will return home to face the Stormers before embarking on their relatively early tour Down Under.

All three of these matches are set to be blockbusters in their own right. The Hurricanes start their campaign in South Africa against a Lions side filled with new-found confidence. Both teams will be a bit rusty which is to be expected but the ‘Canes will find Ellis Park to be an intimidating venue with a full house likely after the Lions’ strong Curry Cup season. Depending on their form of course I can see the Lions winning this one but won’t be exactly shocked if the Canes take the spoils.

The Sharks in Durban will be their toughest game of the opening three, with the Sharks looking set to defend their South African conference title. The Sharks will take the victory in my opinion.

Last year the Lions beat the Stormers comfortably at Ellis Park, recording a record win against the Western Cape franchise in week two of the competition. However when you consider that the Stormers started last year’s competition with a bye some of the scoreline could be put down to rustiness. However I do believe that the Lions would have still won even if the Stormers had a game under their belt and expect the Lions to follow up with another win as revenge for the Currie Cup final defeat. I expect a satisfactory two wins from three for the Lions.

Their tour down under is not as hellish as that of the Cheetahs but still presents a massive challenge for the brave felines. They open their tour with an exciting encounter with the Blues at the iconic Eden Park. After this they travel to the graveyard of Christchurch to face the titans of Super Rugby, the Crusaders. Their Australian away leg isn’t too bad with a first up brawl with the Rebels in Melbourne followed by a clash with the promising Queensland Reds.

The Blues will be out for revenge for their loss at Ellis Park in 2014 after some stated controversial decisions going to the home side by South African referee Stuart Berry. It promises to be an exciting game but I see it going to the Blues.

Last year an amazing 13-man Sharks effort finally broke their drought in Christchurch which will give the Lions some belief, but the Crusaders will take this match comfortably. The Rebels game presents the biggest chance for a first win abroad. The Rebels are a good team when they get it together, and they will have to do so against the resurgent Lions.

I see this as a first win for the Lions overseas in quite some time. I have a good feeling that the Reds will redeem themselves this year, maybe quite not the Australian conference winners but in play-offs contention and so I will see them beating the Lions at Suncorp. One win from four it is.

Their following two matches against the Bulls and Sharks at Ellis Park before their first bye will be interesting as well. They beat the Bulls last year at home and also came close against the Sharks. Depending on whether the Lions can conjure up their Currie Cup form I can see them beating the Bulls at Ellis Park but not the Sharks as was the case last year.

After their first bye they will face the Cheetahs at home followed by the Bulls next door in Pretoria before squaring up against the Highlanders of New Zealand and the Brumbies of Australia, both at Ellis Park.

As explained in the Cheetahs’ preview I don’t see them doing particularly well this year due to their exodus of 14 players so I predict the Lions to win this game giving them their fourth win of the season.

The Bulls in Pretoria presents a very tough challenge and one that I don’t think they’ll overcome. The Highlanders made the play-offs last year and should not be taken lightly, but they did lose to the eleventh placed Stormers at Newlands last year, highlighting their struggles in South Africa. I can see them defeating the Highlanders but not the Brumbies the following week.

Their last three games will be against the Cheetahs at Bloemfontein, the champion Waratahs at Ellis Park and a curtain closer with the Stormers at Newlands before their second bye which will signal the end of their campaign.

I believe that they will beat the Cheetahs for a second time on May 23 at Bloemfontein only to be disappointed against the Waratahs at Johannesburg with the current champions in another class to the Lions regardless of their progress. Their final game at Newlands will also end in a loss and that will be it for the resurgent Lions.

Overall the draw is good and tolerable. The start might demoralise them however seeing as five of their first seven games are away from home and their tour is pretty early in the season. The first two months of the competition will determine how the Lions go about things in 2015. It is quite possible for them to lose all seven of their first games as there is no real guarantee that the Hurricanes and Stormers will be off form. The Hurricanes possess possibly the very best backline in the entire competition and the Stormers have evolved their game as well.

The middle fixtures light up considerably with a healthy bunch of home games served up to the men of Johannesburg. I know that I predicted a win against the Highlanders when they meet at Ellis Park and that the Brumbies will beat them but those two games could also easily be two losses.

I don’t think that the Waratahs will lose against the Lions and I don’t see the Lions overcoming the exceptionally long hoodoo at Newlands either.

Realistically I can see the Lions walking away with seven wins this season as they did in 2014, but they won’t make the play-offs. They might however steal third spot on the conference leaving the disappointing Stormers at fourth.

As far as squad changes go, the Lions have lost seven players but have recruited eight.

Out
Michael Bondesio, Chrysander Botha, JW Jonker, Charles Marais, Franco van der Merwe, Deon van Rensburg, Coenie van Wyk, Willie Britz.

In
Luan Jacobs, Rohan Janse van Rensburg, Sylvian Mahuza, Sampie Mastriet,Rudi Matthee, Luther Obi, Mark Richards, Francois Lobbertse, Howard Mnisi.

Seeing the Lions scrum is worth the ticket price alone, but as with the Currie Cup final they can’t rely on their set-piece to win them games. They also can’t just run around wanting to dazzle the crowd or rely on Boshoff’s drop kicks.

They have all the ingredients to be a true contender for the play-offs, the only question is whether they have the players to realise those goals. They have great scrums and lineouts, they have adequate attacking prowess, a good defence and a points machine in Marnitz Boshoff. They have heart and they have character and I for one look forward to watching them play to the best of their abilities.

My Lions team for 2015 :
1. Schalk van der Merwe (184cm, 105kg)
2. Robbie Coetzee (187cm, 108kg)
3. Julian Redelinghuys (176cm, 100kg)
4. MB Lusaseni (195cm, 108kg)
5. Franco Mostert (198cm, 103cm)
6. Derrick Minnie (185cm, 111kg)
7. Jaco Kriel (185cm, 96kg)
8. Warren Whiteley (193cm, 103kg)
9. Francois de Klerk (170cm, 78kg)
10. Marnitz Boshoff (175cm, 80kg)
11. Courtnall Skosan (183cm, 82kg)
12. Alwyn Hollenbach (189cm, 98kg)
13. Lionel Mapoe (185cm, 105kg)
14. Anthony Volminck (180cm, 80kg)
15. Andries Coetzee (181cm, 87kg)