Are the Queensland Reds a write off before a scrum is packed down in the 2015 Super Rugby campaign?
The recruitment of former All Black Adam Thomson, wayward Wallaby James O’Connor and code-hopper Karmichael Hunt has been a cause for plenty of enthusiasm among Reds supporters this summer after a couple of disappointing seasons since the heady days of 2011.
But have hopes for a return to the Super Rugby finals and even higher honours been dashed with the long-term injury to Wallabies five-eighth Quade Cooper?
Unfortunately for Reds fans the answer is probably yes.
Cooper was crucial to the Reds’ title win in 2011 and the team’s fortunes over the years have been heavily dependent on him. When he fires there are few more exciting players in world rugby.
One of the reasons for Queensland’s recent fall from grace – which in their woeful 2014 season left them just above the wooden spoon, with 5 wins from 16 games – was Cooper spending a considerable amount of time on the injured list.
Staggeringly, after a training mishap resulted in a broken collarbone requiring surgery and a three month recovery, there’s no obvious replacement for the key playmaker in Queensland’s squad.
The absence of Cooper until at least the middle of the season has raised serious doubts over any potential Reds revival. The betting agencies at this stage only rate them a mediocre mid-table finisher with odds of $15 – well behind pre-season favourites the Waratahs and Chiefs.
Cooper’s collarbone fracture looks likely to offer an opportunity for 20-year-old rugby league convert Duncan Paia’aua.
It’s incredible that the Reds’ squad doesn’t include more experienced back-up, such as the Crusaders who have an All Black in Colin Slade to cover Dan Carter.
While O’Connor started at 10 for the Wallabies in the losing 2013 Test series against the British and Irish Lions, and Hunt has experience at fly half in French rugby, Reds coach Richard Graham at this stage wants to keep that pair in the back three.
Graham will be a man under intense pressure if the Reds have a poor start to their campaign. And trusting young Paia’aua with such a huge responsibility could backfire.
Despite the fact he is well credentialed as an assistant coach, Graham’s record in charge of Super Rugby teams is underwhelming, with a winning average of around only 30 per cent during stints at the Western Force and the Reds.
Graham’s already made some interesting decisions for the 2015 campaign by appointing Wallabies prop James Slipper as captain with Test lock Rob Simmons and Hunt as vice-captains.
Former skippers James Horwill and Will Genia – both likely to be England-bound after the World Cup – are not part of Graham’s leadership group, while Cooper was also overlooked.
A feature of the Reds’ decline since their 2011 title success has been the departure of key players.
Scott Higginbotham has been sorely missed since he left Ballymore to go to Melbourne, while the Rebels have now also picked up Mike Harris, Dom Shipperley and Radike Samo, after his stint overseas.
Given the off-season activities with the Reds, there’ll be plenty of interest in this weekend’s trial match against the Rebels in Cairns and many furrowed brows if the early indications for the season ahead are less than promising.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
He was pretty dominant for Australia in 2013.
Squirrel
Guest
When was the last time qc got you a win, let's not go back to 2011
abdul
Guest
Of course he is Squirrel. Your love of the 3 amigos goes unabated. Did they stand you up one night or something?
abdul
Guest
"...a shirtless JOC in a house of mirrors". Quite the turn of phrase you have GS. Perhaps you should compile a collection of your irreverence for our amusement. Release it in time for Father's Day.
Red Block
Guest
And last year Steve Meehan, their attack coach, was sitting firmly next to RG as the worst. Let's hope that this year he brings some new tricks to the table.
RobC
Roar Guru
EG. I reckon one way to break the Reds/Force voodoo is to roll out the Brisbane City NRC team. Maybe including the coach.
Adsa
Guest
I could see Taps or Ant Finger getting a run at 12 and Hunt at 15.
Adsa
Guest
So who will partner Horwill at lock?
Adsa
Guest
Good point Comrade about Barnes, he did come out of the Broncos a good starter.
Squirrel
Guest
No he is the phantom. A complete myth
El Gamba
Roar Guru
But they didn't play michalak, Hernandez or Sanchez before him? If he played ten I'd suggest you could count game time in single figure minutes. He was way too immature for 10 against the lions, crabs side-ways and first option was always to look for how to increase his own brand value. The big question is whether he has matured. I've seen no signs yet but it will probably be clear after a few games - and I don't mean whether he plays well. Booked my Suncorp tickets for reds force in round 2 today, wonder whether Force will get three in a row in Brisbane?
Comrade Bear
Roar Rookie
What is with all the injuries? That's too many to be just from bad luck. It is really R. Grahams fault? Surely he's not that bad a coach? or am I pre-season delusional.
grapeseed
Guest
I must admit that I have half of one eye shut when it comes to QC. Sitting through that decade of Reds performances, and then the redemption of 2011... That break down the right touchline against the Blues to put Tapui away... That 50m try followed by a cartwheel somersault thing... It leaves me trembling with excitememt like a shirtless JOC in a house of mirrors. But my open 1 1/2 eyes also tell me he's a fantastic player who can play to the full spectrum of game plans.
Comrade Bear
Roar Rookie
Well if Duncan can't perform surrounded with talent like Will G/Nic F inside and Harmichael, JOC, ... outside then he will be R Grahams first recruitment blunder - which doesn't seem likely. Berrick Barnes was solid straight from the broncos so I think he'll do ok. I'm actually looking forward to seeing him have a go with Harmical at FB and JOC on the wing rather than shuffle players around. Its the full squad that wins titles these days - so I guess the Reds are just getting tested a little earlier than most are be comfortable with is all.
Brisbane boys
Guest
I think that is why Genia was not given the captaincy as Frisby will put pressure on him to perform his NRC was compelling
Rob G
Guest
yeh giteau was out for a bit so he played 10
Redsfan1
Guest
I just can't understand how Quade Cooper is regarded as the Messiah. Yes he won a Super Title way back in 2011- he also self destructed that same year in a World Cup, does that get a mention? In 2014 for the Reds his form was very average. In fact once he got injured the Reds actually beat the Highlanders and Rebels! He is just not that good and people who rate him are blind to his high error rate, unfailing ability to crumble under pressure, and weak kicking and tackling.
Jameswm
Guest
So with no Cooper or joc, the reds back line seems to be shaping up like this. 9 Genia/Frisby 10 Duncan 11 CFS 12 Hunt 13 Kerevi 14 JJT 15 not sure Still a heap of firepower, if they get decent ball
Not Bothered
Guest
He did play 10.
redderthankevin
Guest
Its a blessing for the reds. A young bloke with buckets of potential can be started with a lot of experience around him. It would have been better to drip feed him time at the end of games, but its great to bring young players through.