South Africa’s strengths are plain to see. They have two of the top three ODI batsmen in the world in AB de Villiers and Hashim Amla, and three champion quicks in Dale Steyn, Morne Morkel and Vernon Philander.
You have to dig a little deeper to uncover their shortcomings. Each of the main contenders for the World Cup have obvious weaknesses.
Number one-ranked Australia’s previously potent middle order has become feeble due to the extended form slumps of George Bailey and Glenn Maxwell.
Reigning World Cup champions India have a powerful top six but do not possess a single world-class bowler, as I outlined recently.
New Zealand have a well balanced side and home ground advantage but sport a horrendous recent record against the top sides. The Kiwis have won just 18 of their past 53 ODIs against Australia, South Africa, India, Sri Lanka and England.
So where do the South Africans fall short? Their batting is famously ferocious. AB de Villiers is so good he makes Hashim Amla look pedestrian, yet Amla would be close to earning a spot in an all-time ODI World XI.
Faf du Plessis has finally clicked in coloured clothing after a checquered start to his ODI career and is now a bonafide top order star. Young strokemaker Quinton de Kock has teamed with Amla to make the world’s best opening pair.
When that quartet form South Africa’s top four it becomes almost as strong as any seen in ODI history.
Yet, for some reason, in recent times the Proteas’ batting has become decidedly vulnerable when they have to chase a target. They have lost 11 of their last 18 ODIs when batting second.
Whats more is they become positively fragile when asked to track down 250 or more. During that same period they lost eight out of nine times when set a target of 250-plus.
By comparison, South Africa’s biggest challengers for the World Cup, Australia, have prospered when batting second. The Aussies have a 12-4 win-loss record when batting second those past two years, with an impressive 7-4 ledger when chasing 250-plus.
Australia will thus feel comfortable chasing a large score against South Africa if they meet in this World Cup. They will feel even more confident batting first and asking South Africa to buck recent history by running down a sizeable total.
The pressure on South Africa’s batsmen when batting second will only be more intense during the World Cup such is their history of choking in all major limited overs tournaments.
It is hard to pinpoint why South Africa have become such a poor chasing team the past two years. It may have something to do with their key personnel problem – the lack of a world-class all-rounder.
Strangely enough, after for years boasting an enviable battery of gun all-rounders they no longer have even a good one.
Gone are the days when Proteas’ teams had wonderful balance thanks to the likes of Jacques Kallis, Shaun Pollock and Lance Klusener.
The Proteas would kill for a frontline bowler who can bat like James Faulkner or a top six batsman with the bowling pedigree of Mitch Marsh.
JP Duminy is a calm and accomplished middle order batsman and a handy off spinner. But it is a real stretch to call him an all-rounder.
He is really just a part-timer – as evidenced by taking only 61 wickets from 191 List A matches – who has been pushed to play a bigger role with the ball out of necessity.
With 47 wickets at an average of 41 in ODIs he will be ruthlessly targeted by opposition batting line-ups looking to make South Africa pay for their weak fifth and sixth bowling options.
The Proteas will have to find a way to get 10 overs a match out of Duminy and another multi-skilled player.
That second bits-and-pieces cricketer looks set to be Farhaan Behardien who is pushing for the number seven spot. The 31-year-old has laboured with the blade, averaging just 21 from his 20 ODIs.
His slow-mediums, delivered in the 110-120kmh range, are about as threatening as a baby Wallaby. They have earned him just 31 wickets at 42 from 134 List A matches although, to be fair, he’s done much better for SA, snaring 11 wickets at 28.
Realistically though, Bahardien looks limited both with bat and ball. Compounding this all-rounder weakness is the fact South Africa have an extremely long tail, with Imran Tahir, Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel all genuine number 11 batsmen.
So then, is South Africa really an unstoppable force as some are painting them or are we just seduced by their starpower?
Don Freo
Guest
Why don't they play AB at #7? He'd be really good there. I don't think you'll find Malinga has much to offer any more. Certainly not 10 overs.
Andrew Jardine
Roar Guru
Australia should be favorites especially since the WC is to be played Down Under. The Proteas do have a problem with finding a good number seven batsman and the South African tail is long. Australia have a long and dangerous tail. With Amla and De Villiers great players leading the way, the top six are impressive. There will be a lot of pressure on those two to perform. Expect hard pitches in Australia and small fields in New Zealand. The Kiwis are my dark horses and will be tough to beat if they reach the knockout stages. England? They should bring back Pietersen (but they won't). He is the one player who can win a match. Anderson formidable, Woakes in consistent, Broad mediocre, Finn sometimes good but leaks runs. Morgan a better skipper than Cook, but I can't see England beating Oz or the Proteas. Windies in a mess because of the pay issue and revolt and India haven't shown any form. Sir Lanka tough to beat if Malinga plays. How they miss Murali.
Pumping Dougie
Guest
It's worked every other time, Charl!
Matt
Roar Rookie
Easier said than done. That said I think the only place SAF have the wood on Australia is in batting - we match or better them with the ball right now.
Elma Dudd
Guest
I doubt it was anything witty otherwise if would have been disclosed to the public .
SP
Guest
Ok my mistake. Nevertheless, how is 3/5 wins as opposed to 3/3 wins indicate NZ performed better? Aust won 100% of their games v Pakistan. NZ won 60%. Never been to NZ but I'm sure the education system isn't that bad that they are teaching 60% is higher than 100%. You do know the WC is odi's not tests don't you? How Australia or NZ performed in the test matches is irrelevant
Hayley
Guest
Even when you win a world cup people will still go about your teams lack of ability in winning one. Maybe for SA it will be they cant win one in the sub continent or something. For the All Blacks its, they cant win one away from home blah blah blah. My money is on South Africa winning this world cup though
Hayley
Guest
Cranberry juice actually mate.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
Hey Charl, I've got the 1950's on the line here and they want their insult back.
Nudge
Guest
Haddin is actually at the top of his game keeping wise, and has batted beautifully the last 3 games guiding Australia home in all 3 games. Don't get the one day format mixed up with the test format Bobbo. You've got Australia's fifth choice keeper doing well for you blokes at the moment.
Photon
Guest
Wouldn't you be up tight after what we have been through. Only people who understand are All Black and Red Sox Fans After losing in bizarre circumstances in 1992, capitulating against the West Indies in 1996 what happened in 1999 left me shattered. Haven't really expected to win a tournament since then if I am honest. Lost matches in some pretty tragic ways yes but I think the Aussies have been slightly better than everyone for the last decade I still watch highlights of the 1999 semi, personally I think for the drama that is pretty much the most awesome game of cricket I have ever watched. Sucks that we lost but man.... I guess every sports fan should experience supporting a team like the Proteas. That team that always finds a way to mess up a sure thing in the most spectacular way. Well the Red Sox and All Blacks found a way, maybe winning a World Cup in Australia, against Australia in front of 100 000 screaming Aussies will make it worth it. Hope dies last!!
Nudge
Guest
Comment Hayley "And yet the Blackcaps did better in Pakistan than Australia." Comment SP " And yet they didn't. In the ODI's Australia won all 3 v Pakistan. NZ won the first, got smashed in the second and won the third game. Not quite sure how NZ did better?" Comment Hayley " I don't know what ODI's you were watching because they actually played 5 matches with NZ coming away with 3 wins. This was with 3 of their key players been sent home. Williamson captained. Comment me "what was the choice of drink tonight Hayley wine, champagne, beer, vodka" ?
Ronan O'Connell
Expert
Wow what a brilliant video that is. I'd be starstruck myself if I came home and found those 5 champs hanging out.
Bobbo7
Guest
AB and Amla are probably the best 2 ODI batsmen in the world. But they made runs out here in November but they still lost the series 4-1. Therefore those guys will need to make big runs. That said I think SA will be much better come the WC. Australia deserve to be favourite but any of SA, Australia or NZ can win it. If Smith or Warner were to lose form, Australia could be in trouble, Watson will make 31 and go out and Haddin is a shadow of the batsmen he used to be. They bat deep but if they lose early wickets I'm not sure the lower order firepower will save the day, look at he 154 all out against SA in November. NZ have improved out of sight in the last 2 years so I don't read too much into the stat quoted. They also beat SA in SA in a ODI series not too long ago, and beat India 4-0. India have shot themselves in the foot being out here for 2 months. They have been belted and have no confidence left. Their top 6 is a shadow of what it was a few years ago and they have pedestrian bowling attack. Pakistan and WI are just too inconsistent, though either can be a banana skin game come the finals. England and SL are ok on paper but are a player or two short for me.
Hey, I am as laid back as they come ;)
Sylvester
Guest
They did also rest McCullum, Southee and Boult.
jake
Guest
ha ha. Laid back South Africans. An oxymoron if there ever was one
jake
Guest
"If SA fail, most of them will at least be able to find jobs where they can read and write. In several languages. I think one of the huge weaknesses of the Australian team is that they don’t like being sledged in a language other than English, which obviously puts them at a disadvantage in a tournament where most other teams, including Scotland and Ireland, speak a language other than English." huh? That makes no sense at all. How would they know if they were getting sledged in a language they don't understand? This seems like a very sad attempt to somehow lessen the Australian players because they don't speak a 2nd language and read or write (apparently). Seems like the pressure is already to getting to you.
Hayley
Guest
I don't know what Pakistan vs. New Zealand ODI series you were watching because they actually played 5 matches with NZ coming away with 3 wins. This was with 3 of their key players having been sent home. Kane Williamson captained. Also Pakistan won the 1st and the 3rd so you are waaaaay of the mark mate. Sorry, all I remember about Australia in the UAE last year was their massive test defeats, thats the lasting impression I have from their tour.
Great stuff, thanks for finding it