2015 Six Nations: Round 1 preview

The 2015 Six Nations Championship kicks off on Friday February 6 with Wales vs England at the Millenium Stadium, followed by Italy vs Ireland and France vs Scotland the next day.

While much of the focus in the media lately has been on how these teams will perform in the World Cup, this year’s Six Nations holds significance in terms of building momentum and confidence.

Most importantly, it will help teams ascertain if they can raise their intensity and accuracy to levels where they are capable of beating New Zealand, South Africa, Australia, or Argentina.

Wales vs England
The first game of the weekend between Wales and England serves as a precursor to these teams’ World Cup pool clash.

The two nations have developed a heated rivalry over the last few years, as evidenced by the fact that they are not content to just beat one another, but to give each other hidings in their most recent encounters (Wales 30-3 England in 2013, England 29–18 Wales in 2014).

Going on current form and personnel, there is very little between the two teams. Both had middling November series in terms of performances and results, but finished on a high with wins over one of the big three, with England’s demolition of Australia more impressive than Wales’ nervy win over South Africa.

Despite the positives from their victory over Australia, England have cause for concern going into this game. They have suffered a worryingly high number of injuries in recent weeks to several key players, whereas Wales are at near full-strength.

If both teams had a full deck to choose from, England would have the stronger pack on paper. However, in the forwards they will be without David Wilson, Joe Launchbury, Courtney Lawes, Geoff Parling, Tom Wood and Ben Morgan. Wilson will be a huge loss, as he was one of England’s best performers in the most recent November series. Likely replacement Dan Cole is an excellent tighthead prop, but he has not played international rugby since this time last year.

Launchbury and Lawes were by some distance the most influential second-row pairing in last year’s Six Nations. The role of second rowers in the scrum is hugely undervalued these days, but both players’ tackles and carries around the pitch in last year’s tournament were phenomenal. The area where their loss will be most acutely felt is the lineout. This is where England would have likely had a significant advantage over Wales if they were injury free, but the loss of these two players, compounded by the absence of Parling (one of the best lineout callers in the game), means that the two teams will be even enough in this regard.

Tom Wood is another significant loss to England’s lineout, being one of their main jumpers, but it is his scavenging work at the breakdown that England will miss most. England are helped in this regard that Wood’s replacement, James Haskell, has been in excellent form lately for London Wasps. Ben Morgan’s injury is also unfortunate for England, but is softened by the availability of Billy Vunipola, who has been a wrecking ball for Saracens this season.

In the backs, Manu Tuilagi’s injury woes continue, with further injuries to Kyle Eastmond and Brad Barritt really testing England’s depth in this area. However, it is the loss of Owen Farrell that will cause the most headaches for Stuart Lancaster. While George Ford had been staking a genuine claim for England’s 10 shirt recently, Farrell was still Lancaster’s first choice. The difference in playing styles between Farrell and Ford means English management will need to rethink how to approach each game.

Wales have a much more settled look about their team (especially in the back line), as well as a clearer understanding among the players as to how they are trying to play as a team. Their forwards, while not as heavy as England, are well drilled, and the cohesiveness of their tried-and-trusted back line selection may well give them an advantage, both in defence and attack, over their patched-up opposition.

With both teams having the added incentive of trying to lay down a marker ahead of their World Cup pool clash, it will likely be a tight game, with tempers likely to flare in the second half.

Home advantage will be the difference between the two teams. Wales to win by 2 points.

Italy vs Ireland
With several important players either just returning or due to return from injury – such as Cian Healy, Iain Henderson, Sean O’ Brien, Jamie Heaslip, Conor Murray, Eoin Reddan, and Jonathan Sexton – it is difficult to expect a fluid performance from Ireland.

Out half is an area of concern for Joe Schmidt. Sexton’s enforced playing ban means that he is unavailable for this weekend’s game, while Ulster’s Paddy Jackson is out for the Championship with an elbow injury. Ian Madigan’s unconvincing performance against the England Saxons will not have settled Schmidt’s nerves. Playing at 12 for most of this season, Madigan’s decision-making and kicking out of hand are rusty.

Ireland are going to be a very different prospect to what they were in the November series without Sexton, as Madigan does not have the same ability to guide his team into the right areas of the pitch at this moment in time. It is likely that Ireland will look to put the ball through the hands rather than kick.

Italy will view Ireland as being vulnerable without Sexton at the helm and target this as a game where they have a chance of turning over one of the better teams. They will also draw encouragement from the fact that they beat Ireland the last time the two teams played at this venue.

Ireland have struggled against Italy in the scrum before, and with an injury to Healy (as well as Jack McGrath being out of form), and question marks over who their first-choice tighthead prop is, this is probably the biggest area of concern for Ireland.

Italy may not have the same amount of quality in their team as Ireland, but in Alessandro Zanni and Sergio Parisse they have two excellent back rowers who, along with the rest of their pack, are adept at absorbing much of the pressure that Ireland put on them.

If Italy’s pack can begin to dominate the game and turn it into a slog-fest, it will be an uncomfortable afternoon for Schmidt’s team.

Ireland to win by 5 points.

France vs Scotland
The final game of the weekend sees Scotland travel to Paris to face France, which is just about the worst possible start to the tournament that Scotland could have hoped for.

There is a glaring contradiction between these two teams: Scotland are a team short on quality players, but with an excellent coach, whereas France are a team with an abundance of quality players in every position other than out-half, but with the worst coach in the tournament.

The most interesting match-up in the game will be in the second row, where the Gray brothers will be up against whichever two second rowers’ names Philippe Saint-André picks out of a hat. Scotland caused France a lot of problems in this facet of the game last year, and the first step in achieving a win over France on their home patch is troubling them in tight.

As woefully inconsistent as France can be, they usually decide to go up another gear in terms of their attacking play when in their home ground, and it will be too much for a Scottish defence that still looks questionable, despite recent improvements in other areas.

In the November series, Scotland demonstrated that they are an improving team under Vern Cotter, and will no doubt continue to make great strides, but a win over France in Paris is too big an ask of them this early in their development under a new coach.

Home advantage, a stronger pack, and a superior bench should see France pull away in the final quarter. France to win by 14 points.