What could happen in 2015: The stats man's guide to the NRL

‘Stats don’t play the game for ya’ is one frequent criticism I’ve heard during my 16 seasons of noting errors, penalties and missed tackles during rugby league games.

With all due respect to those sprouting that view, it is total bollocks that only a total luddite would espouse.

Statistics are in fact a rather good guide to understanding how teams perform, and judging where their strengths and weaknesses lie. They might not directly play the game for you, but they can inform you how your opponent plays it and how you might play them.

I’d be stunned if there was an NRL coach who doesn’t pay very close attention to statistics.

Another group of people that I absolutely guarantee pay close attention to statistics are bookmakers. The setting of their odds would have more than a little to do with statistical analysis. So I decided to examine the odds for this season to see how they stack up against the statistics.

2015 Premier

This is how Ladbrokes have framed the market:

It seems that they’ve mapped last season’s top four as the favourites for the title. That’s a bit odd as since 1980 we have only had back-to-back premiers on four occasions. The last of these was the Broncos in 1992-93 (I’m not including the 1997 debacle for the purpose of this study).

So only 11.8 per cent of the time have we had a repeat premier and yet the Bunnies are the favourites? On only six out of 34 occasions (17.6 per cent) have last season’s runners up claimed the silverware.

The stats are exactly the same for sides who won the title having not even made the finals the previous year. However, the title has been won by sides who finished the previous season in the final four over 70 per cent of the time.

One big stat: on only seven occasions (20.5 per cent) since the 1980 season has a side without recent grand final experience won a decider. On two of these occasions both competing sides had no grand final experience.

Of course in 2014 Souths, a side that hadn’t played in a decider since 1971, beat a side in Canterbury, who had played in the 2012 grand final. However, it is still the case that nearly 80 per cent of the premierships have been won by a side who has played in a grand final within the last five seasons. That would indicate that one of Melbourne, St George, Roosters, Warriors, Manly, Souths or the Bulldogs are likely to win in 2015.

The Wooden Spoon

This is how Ladbrokes sees the wooden spoon market:

The chances are very good that the ‘winner’ of the spoon in 2015 will not have made the finals in 2014. All of the above sides fit that description. In 71.5 per cent of the seasons since 1980 the side that came last did not feature in the previous year’s finals series. In fact, in 51 per cent of the time the wooden spooner came in the bottom four the previous season. Nearly 25 per cent of the time we’ve had back-to-back spooners.

In the seasons from 1980 to 1997 only three sides that made the finals went on to win the wooden spoon the following year (16.6 per cent). However, these stats have changed significantly since the advent of the NRL in 1998, with 41 per cent of the teams that came last having made the finals the previous season.The odds are still 60 per cent that a non-finalist in 2014 will finish last in 2015.

The top eight

Ladbrokes thinks this is the most likely top eight in 2015:

You might notice that those are the same teams that made up the top eight in 2014. However, there has only been one instance in the last 35 seasons where exactly the same teams made the finals again the following year: in 1999.

The average changeover during the last three and a half decades is three sides. That means that three sides who did not make the finals one year went on to play in the finals the next. In fact, since 2005 we’ve had a four-side changeover on four occasions and once – 2010 – we’ve had five new finalists. So the odds are extremely good that the above will not be the final eight. The question is can you pick the up and comers?

Who is the most successful NRL team?
I have crunched the results from 1998 to 2014 to establish the ladder for the NRL era. It has been filtered first by the amount of premierships won, followed by the number of deciders played in and finally by each side’s average ladder position over the last 17 seasons.

While the NRL would have cause to be pleased that 10 of the 16 competing sides have won at least one premiership during this period, there should also be alarm that of the 34 grand finals spots that have been on offer, 23 (67.5 per cent) have been claimed by just five sides.

And yes, as the titles weren’t given to anyone else I’m still crediting the Storm with the 2007 and 2009 titles – for stats purposes if nothing else.