SPIRO's Fearless Predictions for Super Rugby 2015

It was old Spiro years ago who decided to give his guesses about the outcome of various matches and tournaments the imposing title of Fearless Predictions.

There was some hype in the description because as the only Bondi Junction Greek who doesn’t gamble, Spiro is very aware of his failings as a prophet.

He famously, for instance, listed the four teams that could win the 2007 Rugby World Cup tournament in France. The winning side, South Africa, was not listed among the potential contenders.

On the other hand, he did pick the Waratahs before the season started as the likely winners of the 2014 Super Rugby tournament.

There is a catch in this, though. Critics of Spiro will note that he had previously picked the Waratahs to win in all the previous Super Rugby tournaments, as well. It is a matter of historical fact that these predictions did not fly.

The old but good truism that economics picked eight of the last three three recessions could be applied, in a sporting context, to the predictions about the Waratahs.

The magnificent flyhalf and brilliant raconteur Cliff Morgan once memorably described rugby as a “magnificent irrelevancy”. Making Fearless Predictions falls into a similar category. So, as long as we are all comfortable with the fact that it is all great fun and the source of endless, unresolvable argument, here goes.

Fearless Prediction 1. Two teams from each conference will make up the final six
If there is a 3 -2 – 1 split, as predicted by Bill Pulver, the likely three teams will be from New Zealand with one team, only, from South Africa.

However, I am going for two teams from each conference to make the finals. The reason for this is that the rule that each conference must have at least one team in the finals makes it difficult for one conference, no matter how strong it is compared to the other two conferences, to get up three teams. It has to win two of the last three places, a difficult task.

Fearless Prediction 2. The six finals teams in 2015
The Waratahs and the Brumbies, The Bulls and the Sharks, The Crusaders and the Chiefs.

Fearless Prediction 3. The grand final will be between the Waratahs and the Chiefs
Wayne Smith had an interesting article in The Australian recently, pointing out that four of the winners of the Super Rugby title, the Blues, the Crusaders (twice), the Chiefs, and the Bulls won back-to-back titles.

The two winners who have not gone back to back are the Brumbies and the Reds.

I expect the Waratahs to be at least as good as they were last season, which is why I am predicting them as a one of the grand finalists. Michael Cheika is adding to the range of the Waratahs this season by bringing in a huge Fijian winger and more importantly working on the set pieces.

As writers on The Roar have pointed out, too, the Waratahs have a dream schedule. They avoid playing the Chiefs and the Bulls. They play the Sharks and the Crusaders at Sydney. In South Africa, the graveyard for Australian and New Zealand teams, the Waratahs should get at least one win, probably two, from playing the Cheetahs and the Lions.

What about the South African sides? Roar Rookie S T Ruggling (great nickname!) copped a mauling from angry South African supporters with an excellent article titled: ‘South Africa are the worst performing Super Rugby nation‘.

Nothing wounds like the truth. The fact of the matter is that three New Zealand sides (the Blues, Crusaders and Chiefs) and three Australian side (the Brumbies, Reds and Waratahs) have won Super Rugby titles. Only one South African side, the Bulls (with two titles), have won the Super Rugby tournament.

New Zealand teams have made 20 grand final appearances, Australian teams 10, and South African sides 7.

You can blame this on the travelling South African teams have to endure, as their supporters tend to do. But this is avoiding the real issue: South African sides are too negative in their play.

They play for penalties rather than to score tries. Patrick Lambie, who has been selected to be part of the Sharks leadership group by their director of rugby, Gary Gold, told reporters that he was happy to play for penalties to get victories for the Sharks.

This type of rugby, which is accentuated greatly by the Bulls, means that the leading South African teams don’t record the bonus points that New Zealand sides and some Australian sides total up. As a consequence, aside for the compulsory home game for the top conference side, they tend to play their finals matches away.

I hope that the South Africans who read and contribute strongly on The Roar don’t take umbrage at this analysis. Carlos Spencer and John Mitchell, two All Blacks, who have/are coaching in South Africa have made exactly the same point.

They also point out that there is an abundance of talent in South Africa. Handre Pollard went from varsity rugby to Test stardom in a matter of games. He played in a free-spirited, running manner that unsettled and defeated the All Blacks. But a year or so at the higher levels has taken the passion from his game.

The varsity rugby game, too, is thrilling, ensemble, skilful, tremendously fast and if it were embraced at the higher levels, South African teams would be regularly winning the Super Rugby tournament and the Springboks would be unbeatable as the All Blacks.

Imagine what Wayne Smith or Steve Hansen or Dave Rennie would do with the talent available to a coach in South Africa!

I mention Dave Rennie because he and Michael Cheika are the leading lights among the Super Rugby coaches. Rennie coached the Junior All Blacks to an unbeaten run of World Rugby titles, and won two Super Rugby titles in three years with the Chiefs.

The Crusaders are impeded by having Todd Blackadder as their coach. He took over the Crusaders in 2009, after they won the 2008 Super Rugby tournament under Robbie Deans. The Crusaders have not won the title since.

This year, the Chiefs see the return of Sonny Bill Williams, a winner in league and rugby. They have beefed up their back line and the emergence of Brodie Retallick gives them the best tight forward in world rugby. This is why I (and the bookmakers who put their money where their mouth is) rate their chances this season.

The New Zealand TAB has the Chiefs and the Crusaders as the beating favourites at $4.75, followed by the Waratahs at $5.50.

The South African Sportsbet has the Chiefs and the Crusaders at R4, with the Waratahs at R4.50.

In Australia, Centrebet lists the Waratahs and Chiefs as favourites on $5 and the Crusaders at $5.50.

All three betting agencies list the Sharks as their fourth best title hope. The Brumbies, the Stormers and Hurricanes are tipped to battle for the minor positions in the play-offs.

Fearless Prediction 4. The Chiefs will win the 2015 Super Rugby tournament