No one likes to write about failure, but at the end of every season at least half the teams and their supporters won’t be happy.
Cronulla Sharks were wooden spooners last year but most pundits have them being very competitive this year.
The Tigers, Knights, Dragons, Eels and Warriors are all looking to make the finals this year. But with 16 teams to fit into the top eight something has to give.
According to Roar Expert Tim Gore, “the average changeover during the last three and a half decades is three sides.” That is an average of three teams drop out of the top eight each year from the previous year.
So who will they be?
The bookies have Manly as favourites to miss the finals with the Warriors to take their place. Manly seem to have begun a slow slide, and Kieran Foran and Daly Cherry-Evans have yet to re-sign which could cast a pall over their season.
Melborne Storm would be on my list to miss the finals because of their ageing roster, which is being kept in cotton wool and has yet to make an appearance this year. Craig Bellamy has called on his men for mental strength to win the close matches this year.
Penrith Panthers have also yet to expose their stars to the daylight and there must be some questions over their ageing halves combination, despite their performances last year.
Finally the Broncos, with the return of Wayne Bennett, are favoured by the bookies this year, but they only just snuck into the finals last year and have a hard draw. They have many starters in the rehab ward at the moment, face Souths first-up at home and if they get hammered confidence will be low for the other tough matches they face early in the season.
For all teams injuries will play an important part, as will refereeing decisions and representative commitments. But if you believe statistics in the NRL
Manly, Storm, Penrith or Broncos fans may claim that the average is only three teams, not four, drop out of the top eight, but “since 2005 we’ve had a four-side changeover on four occasions and once – 2010 – we’ve had five new finalists”.
This could of course, be one of the years when last year’s final eight repeats, but again statistics do not support this, as “there has only been one instance in the last 35 seasons where exactly the same teams made the finals again the following year: in 1999”.
It is going to be a long hard season before we find out who misses the eight.
Josh P
Guest
Deep in the finals? They got smashed by South, and lost to the Dogs.
Jay C
Roar Guru
Melbourne are the masters at blooding scintillating outside backs. They seem to turn them over every two years or so anyway. But I still think they will struggle a bit against the top teams.
The RiffMarn Stew Moses
Roar Guru
I'm comfortable with where the Panthers a re placed coming into the season es it might be a sluggish start but provided we get thru origin around 9 & 7 W/L confident we can make the eight from there with the run home
The RiffMarn Stew Moses
Roar Guru
I bet most teams wouldnt mind the likes of DWZ at FB if Moylan touch wood goes down & either Peachey or a Cartwright to fill in the halves if Soward touch wood went down
Joe
Roar Rookie
Storm will be in the finals if big 3 stay healthy and the following step up. Green/Hampton for 6 Tohu/Glatsby for Hoffman Finucane/Leroy Lars for Norrie. The above shud cover those departing players but the bigger issue is replacing Waqa and Oneil who were great targets for Cronk. Need Duffie to stay on the field and another outside back to shine.
The Barry
Roar Guru
It feels weird sticking up for the eagles but... It's only with the benefit of hindsight that Toovs was handed a top 4 side. There were plenty of people (including me) at the start of 2012 writing manly off for the reasons you've written. Too old, Stewart past it, etc. I've given up writing manly off. I'll put my house on manly finishing higher than the broncos.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Manly will be there for sure. They only lose Watmough from the team that went deep into the finals last year and his penalty/errors seem to be increasing. In his place they get Mateo/Burgess/Mason. Backline is pretty much unchanged and i'm sure they would have addressed Taufuas high ball issues. They have the best backline in the comp. DCE/Foran contract issue isn't a big deal, will probably make them play harder knowing it might be last chance for glory like departing Souths players last year.
maximillian
Guest
Ostrichichitis... very nice! A lot of people on these blogs have that in general I think.
kdiz
Guest
eels bottom feeding team missed the finals on f&a last year mate. no one has a clue whats going to happen this season frankly, but i thinks its going to be even closer than last year.
Jason Hosken
Roar Guru
Fair call JB, Des smarter than most, he just doesn't look it. I haven't seen much of Mybe. I'm just hoping Foz isn't the reason Grub joins the scrum...not looking good from my side of the fence.
Jason Hosken
Roar Guru
Kenny Edwards - season ending injury, say it ain't so.
JOHNY BULLDOG
Guest
Hmm Jas,I've thought about this with Grub myself-agree he would be a handful however Dessie is alot smarter than me & he obviously has a high opinion of Licha.I believe Grub was originally doing his apprenticeship behind Ennis but Dessie saw him more of a 5/8.I have concerns over where Moses Mybe fits into the picture,I really rate the young fella,but if he's stuck behind Grub & Licha then he may want to go elsewhere....hope its not a Thurston situation all over again.
Jay C
Roar Guru
Parramatta need to sign Foran and kick Norman to the proverbial kerb.
ParraMan12
Guest
why thanks Gus Gould... you sure know a lot about rugby league... what other opinions can you share with us today???
planko
Roar Guru
I believe the main difference between Manly's offer for Choc and Parramatta's was length. Parramatta's offer was for season 2016/17/18. Whereas Manly offered him a 2 year extension only for 2016/17. Choc is a great line runner hopefully not as good a Carmichael.
JOHNY BULLDOG
Guest
True mate,that's the sad & tragic reality these days-its just as easy to obtain drugs as it is to buy a wheel barrow from Bunnings.
Kirk
Guest
Parra will get the spoon unfortunately. Every win they have had in the last 5 or so years has been off the back of Hayne. Sandow and Norman are erratic to say the least. Hoppa is not the same player he was before his bible mission. Peats is their shining light and will need a big year. I don't expect Watmough to add much.
Jay C
Roar Guru
The way it reads he is just a guy who knew a guy and helped out a friend/colleague. But people must have a super case of ostrichichitis if they don't believe these things are everywhere in sports (as in life).
Kirk
Guest
Injuries have such a huge say though. What if Cam Smith gets a season ending injury or maybe DCE and suddenly Melbourne and Manly may drop out. This is what teams like the Knights, Warriors, Sharks or Raiders are banking on.
JOHNY BULLDOG
Guest
Just read about that Jay C...wasn't sure what you were on about at first-If true what an idiot,I'm sure he isn't short of a dollar.It would be a massive shame-alot of people respected him for his total lack of preservation for his body with those fearless hit ups & natural talent.