A-League: Who's going to the finals, and who's missing out

With the A-League about two-thirds into its 10th season, the race for the premiership, as well as for a place in the finals, is starting to get interesting.

It’s the closest campaign Australia has seen in the league’s fledgling history, with the top five teams separated by just four points.

Either of Adelaide, Wellington, Perth, Melbourne Victory and Sydney FC could legitimately sit atop the table come the end of April.

It’s a fascinating scenario that should keep the fans guessing until the final game week, and we could have more than two teams contesting the premiership on the final match week for the first time since 2008-09.

In that season Victory emerged victorious ahead of Adelaide and Queensland Roar, pipping the Reds due to goals scored after the two rivals finished on equal points and goal difference.

Four teams went into the final round of the 2007-08 season with hopes of a premiership title still alive, Central Coast winning the battle against Newcastle, Sydney and the Roar. (Gold Coast had a mathematical chance of making 2009-10 a three-way race with Sydney and Melbourne, but would have had to overcome a 12-goal differential.)

Sydney FC are the form runners currently, having won four and drawn one of their five matches since A-League action returned following the Asian Cup break.

A rough period in the latter months of 2014 saw the club lose three vital first team players for the rest of the season, which coincided with a seven-game winless streak. They were a massive 13 point behind leaders Perth Glory, but have whittled that down to just four.

It’s an impressive turnaround in fortune, and the Asian Cup came at a perfect time for Graham Arnold, as he bolstered the ranks and set about reassessing how to tackle the season without key players.

Sydney just can’t stop scoring, and led by the ever impressive Marc Janko, they’ve managed 19 goals in the last five games, conceding 10. While Arnold won’t and shouldn’t be pleased with some of his side’s defending, if you’re outscoring your opponents then it’s all tulips.

The Sky Blues should definitely be involved in the finals race, but their fans will also be harbouring title aspirations – both the premiership and championship.

Perth have let their hold at the top slip, with their form since the A-League restarted completely opposite to Sydney’s. They’ve lost four of five, and are winless in six. They need to get out of their rut soon.

Andy Keogh’s goals have dried up momentarily too, failing to get on the scoresheet in the last four, and Kenny Lowe needs to get the Irishman firing. His eight goals this season have been crucial, and if Perth are going to bring joy to their long suffering-fans they need him back to his best.

Victory have similarly struggled following the Asian Cup, and have failed to take advantage of Perth’s poor form. One win, two draws and a loss doesn’t make favourable reading for Kevin Muscat’s side. They’ve been highly impressive this season and boast the best goal difference and leading the scoring charts.

They’ve often looked like they would be the team to eventually click and runaway with the league, but slips at crucial points in the season have harmed their season, leaving fans disappointed at times. Second, sitting a point off first and disappointed? That’s how good this team is and could be.

Wellington grabbed their first win of 2015 against Victory on Sunday in a thrilling 3-2 win. The return of Nathan Burns to the score sheet is welcome news, after a five-game barren run, and the Phoenix continue to surprise this season.

A Phoenix premiership could be a massive boon for the Kiwis, and it would without doubt be a big plus for the A-League. A strong Phoenix is a valuable asset, and Australian fans should be pleased to see then doing well, as long as they don’t beat their own team in a grand final.

That leaves Adelaide, who swept all aside at the start of the season. Recently, however, Josep Gombau’s team have failed to capitalise on Perth’s poor run, just like Victory. Since their 7-0 demolition of Newcastle, they’ve lost two and drawn one among a win against Western Sydney.

They will be a dangerous side in the finals, and I can see them taking out the championship. A premiership might be too much of an ask, though, but it’s all too close to determine final placings.

It would be amazing to see all five sides still with a chance come Round 27. Seven out of nine grand finals have been contested between first and second, while no team finishing under fourth has made the championship decider. It’s therefore pretty vital to end the season in the top two.

While the premiership race is still very much undecided, what can be sure, almost certainly, is that Western Sydney, Newcastle and Central Coast won’t be making the finals. With just eight rounds to play, they sit 16, 8 and 13 points off Melbourne City in sixth respectively.

Western Sydney May have two games in hand, but it looks too much of a stretch, even if they can regain their form late on. Coupled with Asian Champions League duties, it’s just not going to happen.

In the history of the A-League’s 10-team format, clubs lying more than three points off sixth with just a third of the season to play have never qualified for the finals. Same in the eight-team era, albeit with less time to make a charge.

So the race for sixth will almost certainly be between Melbourne City and Brisbane Roar, unless one of the current top five have a woeful run of results. However, City lie just six points from Sydney, with a game in hand, and Brisbane are just eight away with two games in hand. Will we see a surprising late rush to the top from either side?

City have just come off a rousing 3-1 victory over Adelaide and have lost just once in their last five. Defence has always been a problem this campaign for City, though despite the 3-0 derby defeat to Victory, they’ve markedly improved. Connor Chapman and Patrick Kisnorbo have formed a solid partnership in the middle, and their two shut-outs against Perth and Wellington last month were just their third and fourth of the season.

City have conceded 29 in 18 games, while up front they’ve only managed 25. Goals for new signings Safuwan Baharudin and Josh Kennedy hopefully leads to a more ruthless streak in the final third for their fans.

The Roar, alongside Sydney, are the league’s form side. Three wins from four, nine scored and five conceded. The defending champions are getting close to their best again, and a late run towards a top four finish is not out of the question. Only a late goal from Dino Djulbic denied them a perfect start to 2015.

If they manage to sneak into the top four, it will be a remarkable turnaround after a disastrous start to the season. They have the pedigree for finals football, and will be one of the favourites if their form continues.

Despite the Asian Cup break this A-League campaign seems to have flown by. With just eight rounds left it won’t be long before fans can look forward to some finals action, while others go back into hibernation and wait patiently for next season.

The premiership race could be the most exciting we’ve seen in the A-League’s history, hopefully the run-in lives up to expectations.