The balance of power in Super Rugby thus far

Super Rugby 2015 is only three rounds old, but there are plenty of trends and hints emerging, giving us an idea of the better sides in the tournament this year.

Let’s start with the cellar dwellers and work our way up. No team wins Super Rugby in the first three rounds, but a team can lose their chance for the title.

The Lions and the Blues have already lost the title, by finding a way to lose three times already. The Lions play hard, but have logged only one point from three South African games, with a tour of Oceania looming.

The boys from Johannesburg steal lineouts (co-leaders with five steals), collect loose ball (an impressive 56 times), and tackle ravenously (they miss fewer per game than any other team), but miss and spurn penalty kicks. On attack, they run forward predictably like zombies, with one angle of attack, languidly upright, and with a sign on them: “tackle me very hard, please.”

They act as if three points are beneath them, but the problem is they have only scored two tries, and only broken their opponents’ defensive lines twice a game.

Depth is also a problem. Thus, late in games, they will struggle.

There is good news for the Lions (and the Blues). These two winless teams play each other next. Somebody’s zero will be erased (unless there is a draw). Both have played brainlessly thus far – it will be the Battle of the Brain Dead.

The Blues are the opposite of the Lion. They offload like wizards, break the line at will (21 times in 2015; the most in Super Rugby), beat defenders with their slick backline (54 defenders beaten, also league-topping), and have already run more metres with the ball than the Cheetahs and Highlanders combined.

When I see the Blues’ line-up, it looks formidable. They are my favourite New Zealand team, but they really aren’t playing smart rugby right now, and they seem out of sorts.

Their most experienced players are often the worst culprits on mental errors, suggesting there is a leadership problem. Sir John Kirwan’s team concede more penalties than any other team (11.3 per game), commit the most handling errors (a shocking 11 errors per game), and they have this strange ability to lose the plot (for example, punching the opposing team’s captain, on his home field, in the sunlight, twenty metres from the ball, and without any immediate sign of provocation).

Yes, they were unlucky. But if you keep being unlucky in rugby, it’s not bad luck. Kirwan keeps spouting the same platitudes, but if your game plan to win in Bloemfontein is to back away from a lineout drive, the rugby gods get angry.

Every other team still has at least a slight chance, but the Force and Reds really need a sea change. The Force were bullied by the Hurricanes in Perth. It was their worst home defeat ever.

Unlike the Lions and Blues, whose problems are related to violating ancient common sense rugby doctrines, the Force are losing because of physical puniness. They have missed more tackles than supreme tackler Lappies Labuschagne has made, but also tend to get bowled over in the tackles they do make.

It’s a long season in Super Rugby when you are physically overmatched. The Force are simply not forceful enough in the contact zone, and they will face even more physical teams than the Canes.

The Reds have more hope, in my opinion. Even though the Highlanders had their measure, and their opening weekend was a horror show, the Brisbane squad oozes quality, with Will Genia staking his World Cup claim, and James O’Connor showing flashes of class (along with what he admitted were “schoolboy” kicking errors).

The Reds have problems they can actually fix, and they have the personnel to do it. But their road is very long, because the Brumbies look imperious in the Australian conference, and the Waratahs may continue to improve, as well.

Two teams that also have faint slivers of hope are the Bulls and the Rebels. The Bulls were beyond lucky to beat the Sharks. The decisions by the officiating crew were so daft, they make Dean Greyling look like Stephen Hawking. A minor subplot is that Victor Matfield’s demise was delayed. He fought and scrapped and got under Bismarck du Plessis’ thin skin.

The problem for the Bulls is they squandered a dream schedule. They’ll play catchup the rest of the season, and if they lose to the Cheetahs this weekend (a game I will be live blogging) they are effectively finished in terms of a home semi-final.

Let’s be clear about the Bulls. They don’t kick too much. They kicked more this weekend than they had in the first two games, but they are kicking less than most Super Rugby teams. Handre Pollard is having a great season at flyhalf.

The Bulls’ problem has been in their pack. They have been passive. Also, their “openside” Deon Stegmann is a penalty machine (and always has been). He has conceded seven penalties already, and referees don’t trust his judgement. Pierre Spies is not an inspirational leader, and the only real coalface grafter is Labuschagne (51 tackles, 1 miss; 11 carries). I can’t believe I’m saying this, but the Bulls miss Flip van der Merwe.

Still, the Bulls can put it back together, with a win in Bloemfontein, followed by a bye, a Loftus match with the less-than-imposing Force, and then a rematch in Durban with the Sharks. A sweep of those puts the Bulls right back in the South African conference picture.

The Rebels beat the Crusaders on opening weekend, but since then have dropped two straight, using their high intensity, maximum ball-carrying style. A better balance in tactics might help, but realistically, they will struggle on their South African tour, and needed to beat the Brumbies.

And what of the Crusaders? The conventional wisdom is that they start slowly. Usain Bolt starts slowly, too, but over the last 20 metres, he blows everyone else away.

Will the hard men from Christchurch finish strong? The Crusaders were smashed by the Chiefs. Sam Cane comprehensively outplayed Richie McCaw. You can replace those names with any other Chief and Crusader and the sentence still works.

The Crusaders have only scored four tries this year. However, Kieran Read and Sam Whitelock will return, and maybe they will be the Bolt of Super Rugby again. But I have a feeling that Hamilton, not Christchurch, is the epicenter of New Zealand’s conference, this year.

The Sharks and Waratahs are sort of in the same boat in my opinion. They are well-coached, rumbling, hardnosed machines who have depth and full season physicality at their disposal. The Sharks will look forward to two derbies to restore their fortunes. They have a difficult match at Newlands against a tough Stormers pack, which welcomes back Eben Etzebeth and Schalk Burger (everyone put their mouthguards in, please), followed by a revenge opportunity against the Bulls in Durban.

These two contests will go a long way in clarifying the South African conference.

The Waratahs took the week off, and face the Reds, next, and fortnight later, the Brumbies in a tasty internecine bout. Only one Aussie team notched a win, so the Tahs did not lose ground. This is a crucial stretch for the Michael Cheika’s men, as they look to bloody other guys who might play for Cheika later this year.

The Tahs pass and offload at a high rate, without as many handling errors as you would expect, and attack the line. As the “target,” they will tend to face opponents at their best; thus, a more conservative approach to exit strategy might be wise.

It is easy to imagine the Sharks and the Waratahs in the playoffs, still, but they need to start winning (ugly or pretty or lucky, it matters not).

The top six currently will probably not be the top six at the end, but for now, we must give them their proper due: the surprising Highlanders and Cheetahs, the gritty Brumbies and Stormers, and the excellent Hurricanes and Chiefs.

The Cheetahs have not lost yet, but they will, because they give their opponents far too many opportunities and force themselves to absorb too much pressure.

They miss 25 tackles a game – worse even than the Force. Willie le Roux is an all-world attacker, but he and Sarel Pretorius are matadors on defence.

Next up for the matador mosquitoes: the Bulls, the Sharks, the Crusaders, and the Chiefs. Look for a steep decline in the Cheetahs’ fortunes.

The Highlanders scratched out a home win against a team they should beat, but now they go to Hamilton. I like how the mountain boys compete for and over the ball. Their midfield is salty with Waisake Naholo and Malakai Fekitoa causing mayhem. I’m looking forward to their next battle, but I would not write the Highlanders off. They are more disciplined than in past seasons.

The Brumbies have many Roar fans, and I appreciate the way they play. They have a big pack. They play hard and smart for Stephen Larkham. I don’t see them being easily beaten by anyone, really.

They play real rugby. They defend well. They apply pressure for extended periods. They score well-worked tries. Stephen Moore, Scott Fardy, Rory Arnold, and David Pocock qualify as Australian mongrels. If the Brumbies can improve their handling, they will start to score even more.

The Australian conference title appears to run through Canberra. Someone will have to take it from the Brumbies.

The Stormers are having the opposite season from 2014. Sitting pretty at three wins and no losses, with only two serious injuries (Jean de Villiers is out, and Rynhardt Elstadt broke his fibula) but substitutes that are more than adequate (Damian de Allende is the standout South African midfielder thus far, and Elstadt can be replaced by Nizaam Carr, Siya Kolisi, Michael Rhodes, and there is this guy named Schalk Burger who returns this week), the Cape side looks like they are fit at the end of games and mentally robust.

Eben Etzebeth, Manuel Carizza, Ruan Botha, and Jean Kleyn are good a second row corps as there is in Super Rugby; Etzebeth makes his return this weekend.

Winning close games is a sign of a good team; also, not conceding penalties or missing tackles. But now, a great test: the Sharks and the Chiefs come to Newlands on consecutive weekends.

The Stormers have won 22 of the last 25 games at home. If they win both, they will have daylight as they march slowly to another home semi-final.

At the top are the Chiefs and the Hurricanes. Both are impressive in different ways.

The Canes returned from South Africa with a perfect record. When was the last time that happened for the Wellington boys? They are stealing things: lineouts (5), turnovers (24), and tries when they need them.

Bok-beating Beauden Barrett loves to play in South Africa, Cory Jane seems intent on playing a few matches at Twickenham this year, Dane Coles is turning into a really smart player, and Julian Savea is, well, Julian Savea.

I like the way the Canes defend; a really good system, but also individually, great tackling technique and fitness. They have more home games than anyone else now; so you’d give them the nod, right?

No. The Chiefs are scarier. They are a real juggernaut with ball in hand, the only team in Super Rugby who can consistently play in the wrong half of the field, eschew the obvious kick, and still profit.

Great backs grow in New Zealand like silver ferns in the wild. Charlie Ngatai is the new “it” boy. There’s a Hikawera-named hooker in Hamilton that looks the business, too.

The Chiefs have completed 21 offloads, run 600 more metres than the Brumbies, easily have the most clean breaks, and beat defenders like whipped cream, but they also tackle well and have won the most turnovers.

So, the Chiefs and the Hurricanes are in a battle royale, with the Crusaders and Highlanders scrapping to get a look in for the playoffs, but in a real must-win situation already.

The relatively healthy Stormers control their own destiny at home, with the Sharks and Bulls looking to profit from the Cheetahs’ inevitable swoon. The Brumbies are in the drivers’ seat, but the Tahs will not go quietly.