South Africa is the strong favourite to win their clash against Sri Lanka.
Frankly, I can’t understand why. Not only have Sri Lanka performed well throughout the tournament, this will be the closest of the four quarter finals.
Preview
Rangana Herath and Angelo Mathews are both expected to be fit. Herath is especially key despite a good balance of left-handers in the South Africa line-up.
Sydney didn’t spin as expected in their match against Australia, but that may be down to the quality of spin than anything else.
This is very much the weakest Sri Lankan attack in recent years. Lasith Malinga is not what he used to be and if Herath doesn’t recover it would be only up to South African nerves or failings to lose this one.
Would South Africa drop Quinton? Would AB de Villiers actually keep wickets? AB has so far rejected this but this is a crunch situation and their options are limited with Wayne Parnell, Quinton de Kock both not firing yet.
Can one expect Duminy to bowl 10 overs of spin in Sydney? Would they include Farhaan Behardien over de Kock? Duminy along with Bahardien for the fifth bowler is something I can live with at Sydney.
Would they prefer Kyle Abbott over Vernon Philander or can they play both? Sydney proved to a batting beauty in the matches prior and relying on Bahardien or out-of-touch De Kock to adding batting depth doesn’t seem right over adding cover in the bowling department.
I think the best 11 has to have AB as keeper and Abbott, with Rilee Rossouw opening with Hashim Amla. I would love to see both Abbott and Philander playing along with Dale Steyn, Morne Morkel, and Imran Tahir. Do I expect this to happen? No, but the lack of batting and bowling depth has left not much room.
Aaron Phangiso, Parnell and to an extent Bahardien are true passengers in this team. In the earlier matches, it was the introduction of the fifth and sixth bowler which eased the pressure on the batting sides. So playing five bowlers could be a worth gamble on a batting strip.
The key battles
1. Can Steyn deliver? So far a pretty he has had nothing better than a wicket per match. Do I expect him to? I am inclined to believe not.
2. Can Amla deliver a platform in a crunch match? As much is made of ABDs ability and while he is the bedrock of South Africa’s batting, I think it is Amla whose fortunes would decide their fate. Without a really solid start, I can’t possibly back them while chasing.
3. Can Sri Lanka put up a fairly decent bowling performance? In the present squad, even South Africa shouldn’t mind facing their spinners. If history is any indication Sri Lanka find a way and with this being the last world-cup of their stalwarts, I am expecting nothing less.
Unlike the South Africa counterparts, they have a lot of big match experience.
4. South Africa’s off the boil bowling attack will come up against some Sri Lankan stalwarts. I think they will want to perform in their last ever world cup.
5. Herath versus ABD: Can the others build on the pressure from the other end?
Whoever wins the toss will bat first because South Africa has a 3-10 record chasing down targets in excess of 240 since the last world cup. I think the toss could be crucial to South Africa’s fortunes.
Trent Marshall
Guest
no. I won.
Gurlivleen Grewal
Roar Pro
Ok,I am not sure if you are just trolling. Bit new to engaging in 'mostly' meaningless conversations on the net but I ll bite. You might as well be "guru" of trolling :) Ind has the best record in knockouts under Dhoni yes it includes the "mighty" Aus, NZ, and of course SA. Their weak link is performing well above what was expected - a bonus. The pitches have had no bearing on the outcomes and have been true batting tracks with bit more bounce which given their performances in tests, the Indians have gotten accustomed to. The test series results indicated how well they batted albeit on benign wickets but very similar to those in WC. Check on the latest ODI results among the teams since 2011 - it is pretty even. The match is in Sydney - saw how much it turn in Srl vs SA. Were the Aus worried even in their match against SRL about this- yes. Do they have spin options - No. The whole piece was it is Aus or Ind's WC to lose. So the winner to come from that potential SF. Is it written in stone - nope. Why do you even read something if you only like your opinions to be echoed to you. Does it matter that I am from India and you from Aus. Does it affect my judgement? I can say No about the former but the latter - you are the authority on yourself. And am I copping it from the "roarers" - in your dreams. Do I care - not even an iota. Did I write all this already? You bet. Did you read or can digest - Don't think so. Enjoy the tournament.
Renegade
Roar Guru
Geez, defensive much.... nothing wrong with predictions but when they are baseless but put forward in a manner that it's fact - you gotta get what's coming. Sensationalist claims like "the world cup is India's to lose" are going to cop criticism if you don't have the facts to back them up. You can click on my profile - plenty of articles there. If you write rubbish on the roar, roarers will be quick to let you know about it. And if you can't admit when you are wrong, you'll also cop it. Anyways, it's quite obvious your opinion has zero weight and your "cricketing brain cells" are on holidays...enjoy the rest of the tournament.
Gurlivleen Grewal
Roar Pro
Frankly, I expected one or two comments like this and you didn't disappoint. Do you really think I care about your views? Hindsight is 20 20. And with you intentional misquoting what I said just lets me know how much respect your comment deserves. If you really get indigestion with reading something you don't quite agree with - well get off the net. Thank you again. @ To some cricketing cells in your brain - why do one has to play a sport if everything can be predicted. All articles have opinion and bias, you are welcome to come up with yours and make a case.
Gurlivleen Grewal
Roar Pro
So I lacked respect for having the opinion that the match was expected to be much closer than it panned out. Fine, thanks for teaching me that and to you sir, I tip my hat.
Trent Marshall
Guest
that will teach you some respect.
Renegade
Roar Guru
Tongue in cheek Alex - I'm still giving it to Gurliv about his previous article about India ;) Yeah it's probably more the fact no one expected South Africa to come out and play the way they did... including myself, although I did tip them. No one can accuse the 2015 proteas of choking.
Alex L
Roar Rookie
In fairness, I don't think anyone expected the kind of implosion we just witnessed.
Renegade
Roar Guru
Sri Lanka won the toss and batted first.... I think this article is up there with the "World Cup is india's to lose" rubbish the other day. If you could write another one suggesting that Australia can't win the tournament - that'd be great :P
Bobbo7
Guest
Team that bats first should win. I don't see either tram as favourites.
Hi Chris, from the perspective of deathbowling I speak purely from memory, I haven't checked the actual stats.
Nah, I am not backing them, just stating their selection issues and potential if they select the form players ;)
Alex L
Roar Rookie
Whoever wins the toss should be the favourite.
Matt
Roar Rookie
It's a shame that SL have been hit by so many injuries - they could take out whole thing if their bowling unit was at full strength, given the hot form of their batting order
JGK
Roar Guru
Yep - there's a clear arbitrage if you hold you bet until after the toss as markets don't really move that quickly.
Digby
Roar Guru
Hey Ric, Between the cricket and the rugby, yes, I am currently a happy man. The Blues? Hadn't noticed mate, they not going too good? ;)
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Speaking of Death Bowling. I thought that all the stats for the last couple of years showed SA as one of the better teams in terms of runs per over conceded in the final 10. I'd actually suggest it's the last 10-15 overs of each innings that is SA's biggest advantage. SL have struggled in death bowling and SA are very good at capitalising on teams that don't get it right at that point. Sri Lanka are likely to be well ahead at the 30 over run comparison, but the question is will they be far enough ahead as they are unlikely to score nearly as many off the last 20 overs as South Africa are.
Gurlivleen Grewal
Roar Pro
I am not sure about the wishlist? I think you echo the point that they ought to play 5 bowlers and they don't have any batting depth anyway? Beharadein a batsman - I don't think so! Everybody goes in the last 15 these days and it all comes down to taking wickets in the middle and front. The match would hence are actually decided before the death. Yes, their overall strike rates are good but are they inflated against poor opposition - IMO they have been quite lackluster lately. Do I expect it to change - at Sydney no! As I remember you had written them off but now you are backing them with a vengeance :) I think they have no relevant averages to show thus far - because they have never won a meaningful knockout or a final in ages and I couldn't care less about those 400+, 350 scores lately. Is it a 70-30 game in favor of SA? I don’t think so, more like 55-45 in favor of Srilanka. The logic in my mind is, if Srilanka bat first it would be 70-30 in their favor; if SA bat first it would be 60-40 in their favor.
moaman
Guest
Speaking of tosses MacDub......it's about time NZ strung a few together! BMc won the last one but his record this summer has been abysmal.I am hoping he will turn that around now we are at the pointy end.
moaman
Guest
Morning Ric/all: Yeah....I can't wait 'til Friday...been thoroughly immersed in this tournament --to the extent I have been neglecting the rugby! Really enjoyed the NZ v Bangladesh match.And yes--whichever team gets through to the semi will be formidable.I am reasonably confident we can dispatch the Windies.But I look at it this way--if we can't then we weren't good enough to go all the way anyway. I am hoping it will be Sri Lanka because they are a "known known" : the Africans will be very hard to beat whoever they face and I'll be content if it's someone else! BB---one man that gets overlooked a lot in the reports is Faf Du Plessis! He seems to operate in AB's slipstream but I think he adds that extra bit of class to an already awesome top/middle order.