The numbers are in: the 2015 World Cup has a glut of runs like we’ve never seen. Is it even possible to be a bowler anymore?
The stats for this tournament are less numbers and more numbing. Mind-numbing. Brain-numbing. After a while the massive totals stop meaning anything at all.
In 39 games to the end of the pool stage we’ve had 25 scores of more than 300. Wandering out and cracking six an over has become the new norm. Compare that to the last World Cup, when the whole tournament saw it happen 17 times.
One reflex is to blame mismatches between Associate and Full Member nations, but that wasn’t a defining factor. Even if we only look at contests between Full Members, 19 games produced 15 innings of over 300.
Thirteen of them were racked up by the team batting first and 12 times they won. Sri Lanka’s Fonzarelli cool in chasing England’s 309 was the sole exception.
Those totals meant that few of the games were competitive. The average winning margin was 89.8 runs. Six of the 19 games were won chasing mostly lower totals, dealt with by an average of 5.2 wickets.
Only three times did a team defend less than 300. Pakistan did it twice, with 222 against South Africa and 235 against Zimbabwe, while Bangladesh kept England from their 275.
Throw in the Associate versus Full Member games and we have 17 matches won by sides topping 300 first and three games won chasing it. Ireland became the high-score specialists, running down 304 against West Indies before narrowly defending 331 against Zimbabwe.
While a couple of spankings will live in the memory, the Associates weren’t far off the pace with the ball. It sounds dire that the Full Members averaged 344 against them batting first. But outside the anomalies where sides were bowled out, the first-innings average between Test-playing nations was 316.
It was the Associate batting that let them down, averaging 214 first and 211 chasing. Test-nation attacks bowled out Associate teams 14 times out of 20. Test-nation attacks also bowled out Test-nation chasers 13 times out of 19, but only five times batting first.
The Associate batting struggles contribute somewhat to some weirdness with the bowling figures. It’s anti-intuitive that among these slugfest innings, bowlers should prosper.
Rule of thumb: fielding sides would be happy with 280 this World Cup. That means a bowling attack needs to average less than 28 runs per wicket. Of 136 bowlers used for the tournament, 44 of them are doing so.
Disregard the 10 who’ve bowled fewer than 10 overs and it still leaves you with enough people to impersonate England’s support staff. All but four of those 34 bowlers are going at under six runs per over.
The spearheads are those who’ve cracked 10 wickets. Sohail Khan, Tim Southee, Shapoor Zadran, Jerome Taylor, Wahab Riaz, Josh Davey, Mohit Sharma, Morne Morkel, Trent Boult, Corey Anderson, Umesh Yadav, Mohammed Shami and Mitchell Starc. The spinners are Daniel Vettori, Imran Tahir and Ravi Ashwin.
That’s two Pakistanis, two South Africans, four Indians, four New Zealanders, an Afghan, a West Indian, an Aussie and an unlikely Scot. A large cast for a batsman-dominated tournament.
So something else is at play. The presence of four Kiwis mirrors the way they’ve blitzed batsmen on their home pitches. They’ve conceded an average of 187 per match and taken 57 of 60 possible wickets. India have conceded 205 per innings and taken all 60.
Other teams, though, don’t have that spread. So batsmen must be waiting out the best bowlers, as evidenced by some slow and steady starts, then targeting weaker links.
A high bowling average doesn’t always say much: Shahid Afridi might be averaging 126, but he’s sent down 53 miserly overs at 4.75.
But economy rates are the killer. While plenty of them of are very part-time, 59 bowlers at the World Cup have gone for six or more runs per over.
Kevin O’Brien, with a fast-bowler’s heart that can’t always match his ability, has bowled a full ODI innings on his own and gone for 408, the same that South Africa scored when they smashed West Indies.
Frontline purveyors taking tap include Pat Cummins, Steven Finn, Kemar Roach, Nuwan Kulasekara, Iain Wardlaw and Tinashe Panyangara.
Then there are regular all-rounders like Thisara Perera, Sean Williams, Glenn Maxwell, Darren Sammy and JP Duminy.
Perhaps, as Chris Kettlewell suggested in a comment the other day, it’s not so much a bad time to be a bowler as a bad time to be an average bowler. In the days of T20 tactics, four outfielders and two new balls, batsmen will come after you.
All-rounders like Maxwell who bat in the top six might keep their currency, but those who bat low and once bowled tidily are struggling to stay tidy.
Even in this batting age, bowlers can dominate with the skill of Starc or Shami. Unfortunately for your average bowler, most of them can never have it.
raz
Guest
As opposed to Starc playing against world class units like scotland , afghanistan etc? Shami didnt play against uae,he was rested for that match.
Geoff Lemon
Expert
Hello Brett - yeah, I was thinking the same thing about the Associates. But then, I went through the tournament figures for each of the top 20 wicket-takers game by game (because I have a rich and fulfilling social life) and none of them took bags against Associate sides. All the top wicket-takers have been very consistent: 2 wickets here, 3 wickets there, regardless of who they were playing. The only bags have been Southee's 7 against England and Starc's 6 against NZ. In fact, all of the 5-fors have been taken against Full Member sides.
Sylvester
Guest
Geez, you'd think they'd never played in foreign conditions before... There's also a school a logic that suggests if the MCG will favour batting, then NZ's batsmen, should they make the final, will be even more effective than they have been in NZ this year.
Duncan
Guest
Hi Geoff thanks for the article it was an enjoyable read When I was watching the Big Bash competition Damien Fleming when commentating stated that he thought today's bowlers had gone away from the traditional side on bowling action and were much more front on to avoid the inevitable lower back problems that cone with a side on technique but it leads to bowling that lacks penetration In saying that I feel if guys go back to bowling a middle and off line and bowl more for the slips and get some more bowler friendly pitches we will see some truly embarrassing efforts with the bat with scores between thirty and seventy becoming commonplace in test and fifty over cricket as its easier to improve bowling techniques then batting and batting techniques are to say the least loose and with virtually no foot movement there largely relying on poor bowling then developing a strong technique
Renegade
Roar Guru
I think Boult would be number 2 in this tournament however your last sentence is very true.
taylorman
Roar Guru
That's right. NZ won theirs cos they were at home, but oz won theirs cos they're oz...love it
taylorman
Roar Guru
...and since we've already found that Oz can't win away from home either...we're to assume it applies to NZ? Possibly. But very slanted logic indeed.
spruce moose
Guest
"Of course, there will inevitably be those who feel the need to pick holes in such figures, on account of the presence of the Associates" How grimly true.
Clark
Guest
Australia played one bloody game outside of Australia and have all their playoff matches at home. It seems Australia are too stubborn to give credit where it's due and just like to did excuses to discredit. I think it has something to do with being sub par away from home, the new India perhaps? But then again they had all of their matches away from home.
Clark
Guest
I love seeing the same generic comments. I don't think it will matter all that much, NZ actually won their last ODI in Melbourne. Also, what if Australia don't actually make it to the final?
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Chasing has become the norm in a lot of T20 cricket, and the comment about teams no longer being so worried chasing big totals has been bandied about a lot. Though I think the stats that chasing teams win more in T20 cricket actually hasn't held in the last couple of BBL seasons, so maybe chasing is tougher in Australia than some other parts of the world. We've seen many occasions of big scores being chased down in recent years, yet not so much in this WC so far. But we've also not had all that many really close matches so far this WC to this point. Maybe some of them are coming in the knockout rounds!
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Apart from the one match against NZ, Australia has had that too. It's called hosting a tournament. Last time India had the benefit, in previous times others have had that advantage. Despite that advantage, there haven't been a lot of occasions of teams have won their home WC. Though I do agree that Southee and Boult are unlikely to be as effective at the MCG as they are at Eden Park, and I think NZ playing every game at home right up to and including the Semi-Final could really hurt them if they make the final as that will be their first match in Australia. It was a tough trip for Australia to have to fly to NZ for that one-off match in Auckland. I think it will be just as tough for NZ to fly to Melbourne for the one-off match having played entirely in NZ up to that point should they make the final, especially if it ends up being against Australia. So I think the scheduling is a bonus in helping NZ to reach the final, but possibly detrimental in helping them to win it.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Australia had the washout against Bangladesh, so the max wickets available to them has only been 50 rather than 60, but they've actually taken 49 of those 50 wickets, with New Zealand the only team they haven't bowled out, and they got them 9 wickets down. So they've gone pretty close to that. It's quite interesting how many matches have involved teams being bowled out. I'd be curious to compare that to previous world cups, though not sure how to other than very manually going through results. While the total number of 300+ scores, 350+ scores and 400+ scores are up, is the total number of innings where teams are bowled out also up? I don't know if it is, but it certainly looks like it could be.
Brett McKay
Expert
Geoff, Chris's comment, "it’s not so much a bad time to be a bowler as a bad time to be an average bowler" is about spot on, because it's clear that while this has certainly been a batsman's tournament, there has still been some standout bowlers too. The top ten wicket takers are all averaging – in a tournament dominated by massive scores – less than 25. Of the 18 players with ten or more wickets, only seven of them have gone for more than 5rpo – in a tournament with 40 innings of 250+! Of course, there will inevitably be those who feel the need to pick holes in such figures, on account of the presence of the Associates, and well... England. To quote one such the other day, "stats against lesser teams should be taking [sic] with a pinch of salt." Pfft, credit where it's due: there's been some excellent bowling this tournament in amongst all the batting carnage..
spruce moose
Guest
In a world cup yeah?
MACDUB
Guest
Yep, hence why whichever team batting first today - SL or SA - will go a long way to winning the game.
MACDUB
Guest
Craig, Fair comment. You still have to give credit where credit is due..its not like the pitch is bowling it for them. The moist and humid conditions offer great movement for the bowler, but you still need to be world-class to be able to control that swing and put the ball in the right areas. Controlling swing is a skill. Many respectable cricket commentators actually like NZ wickets because there is a great balance between bat and ball - shorter boundaries for the batters, but moist and humid conditions can make the ball move unbelievably for the bowlers. Unfortunately, swing bowling is declining in Australia and the SCG for example is been turned into an absolute road ala. the sub-continent. NZ pitches have that x-factor - Everyone was expecting a big score at Eden Park due to the boundaries and it was a 150 - 150 type of game.
Alex L
Roar Rookie
More than anything else, teams just don't seem to be able to chase solid totals without getting flustered -- none of the quarter finalists have chased 300+ against another quarter finalist. The only team to both score over 300 chasing against a quarter finalist and successfully chase 300+ against a test nation is Sri Lanka (against Australia and England respectively), nobody else has even come close.
Craig Watson
Guest
Agree . Is it any wonder that Boult and Southee have been so effective this WC. The privilege of playing all their games on their home tracks. They have been able to get in a groove because they are so comfortable with the conditions and their ability to perform in those conditions. The poor ICC scheduling is to blame for this unfair situation to happen. Every other bowling nation has had to accustom themselves to varying decks..not the Kiwis
madmonk
Guest
I think we are agreeing. Its a bit like saying defence is not that important in basketball because they score a 100 points a game.