And then there were four. The 2015 Cricket World Cup semi-finalists have been decided, so I’m here to breakdown each side’s chances.
Australia, India, New Zealand and South Africa each have their flaws and there will be key areas that could determine who squares off in the World Cup final on Sunday.
India
The reigning champions have momentum by the bucketload at present, and will take plenty of stopping in the semi-final. Their batsmen are firing, with five centuries so far in the tournament, but it’s their bowlers who have been a revelation, led by Mohammed Shami and Umesh Yadav.
Ravichandran Ashwin and Ravindra Jadeja could be decisive given the conditions Sydney has produced throughout the tournament. For this reason, and their abundance in vocal supporters, I think they’re an even-money chance against Australia.
To win India will need to see off Mitchell Starc. The bowler of the tournament will be Australia’s biggest weapon, but should India get through him then they should be confident of scoring freely against Mitchell Johnson, Josh Hazlewood, Shane Watson and Glenn Maxwell.
Match-winner: On a Sydney pitch expected to be dry, Ashwin could be the man, especially considering Australia’s troubles against the turning ball.
Australia
The co-hosts haven’t put a foot wrong since losing to New Zealand. Their recent history against India should reap psychological benefits but World Cup India is a far different beast from the Test and Tri-Series equivalents.
Batting-wise Australia’s strength has been its powerful middle-order, with Steve Smith, Michael Clarke and even Watson in the runs, gifting Brad Haddin and Maxwell licence to thrill late in the innings.
I do, however, have doubts over Aaron Finch’s form. Besides his century against England, where he was dropped on zero, he has barely been sighted. We’re at the point in the tournament now where Australia will have to carry Finch through the finals as it’s simply too late to be tinkering with the line-up. The absence of Nathan Lyon could also come to the fore in this match.
Match-winner: Glenn Maxwell has been in tremendous form but he is yet to do it when Australia’s in trouble. I get the feeling Maxwell’s ‘Andrew Symonds, 2003 World Cup’ moment is just around the corner.
New Zealand
How well has Martin Guptill timed his run? He has played a supporting role to Brendon McCullum’s pyrotechnics all tournament but Guptill has certainly peaked when it matters. Those two and Kane Williamson are critical with the bat, so preserving early wickets will be the key.
Besides the top three and the brilliant bowling of Trent Boult and Tim Southee, home advantage should be enough in itself to get New Zealand over the line, for the co-hosts look unbeatable on their own grounds.
Although we’re deep into the tournament there are still areas of New Zealand’s game that remain untested. The form of several key players have masked potential weaknesses in Grant Elliot at number five and Corey Anderson as the fifth bowler.
Match-winner: The veteran Daniel Vettori has been superb. West Indies were the first team to get hold of him in what has otherwise been a faultless campaign. A World Cup final would be a fitting way for the Kiwi champion to go out.
South Africa
It’s hard to know what to take from the Proteas’ quarter-final victory. The psychological pressure release of finally winning a knockout game is immense but playing-wise it was a bizarre result.
South Africa’s strength with the ball lies with the pace of Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel, however it was spinners Imran Tahir and JP Duminy who did the damage against Sri Lanka. For South Africa to advance to the World Cup final their openers Quinton de Kock, who returned to form in style against Sri Lanka, and Hashim Amla will need to weather Southee and Boult.
If they can see off that threat, the lower-order should be able to cash in on Adam Milne and Anderson – who are untested under pressure in this tournament. Like New Zealand, their fifth bowling option could decide the game.
Match-winner: With 15 wickets, Imran Tahir leads all South Africans in the tournament. The leg-spinner has a strong limited overs record but has really elevated his status over the past month. Look for him or Duminy to come on early as McCullum gets a fast start.
13th Man
Guest
You mean 4 and out
Sylvester
Guest
As the Windies found out the hard way, run rate means nothing if you're losing regular wickets.
Sylvester
Guest
I'd say NZ is going OK if their weak links are a batsmen averaging 42 this year and a bowler with the 4th or (3rd?) highest strike for any bowler with more than 40 wickets.
maximillian
Guest
You agree that NZ was 1 of the form teams but yet your surprised they made it this far?? They've made 6 WC semi finals already with far worse teams & lesser form? Add home ground advantage & I think only a fool wouldve predict England to do better than NZ.
satish
Guest
I am not sure about this "Australia have greater matchwinning firepower with Maxwell and Faulkner". Even in One dayers, 70's or 100's from a top order batsman is the key.Hence we have the top order to make hundreds that will put an opponent under stress. Also our top order is full of test players.Australia has some batsmen who will struggle to qualify for tests unlike in the past. The lack of solidity is evident in some cases like the collapse in NZ.On the other day steve smith had to carry you through and Watson was fragile. Maxwell can put us out if he stays for 13 overs. but he has to stay that long. Faulkner can do a job provided the top order brings him close enough.he is a finisher alone. Australia's superior bowling unit is not in doubt. but you are playing only three specialists. The Allrounders are utility bowlers at best and very hittable to top class batsmen. I saw the score cards in the aus- SA series. I feel the mistake SA made was Maxwell had a very good economy rate and Faulkner/Watson were taken to the cleaners only sometimes. But the hole does exists for the opposition to exploit.
satish
Guest
The top 7 wins the vast majority of the games The batting ability of bowlers with stripped down technique should not be over rated.Their role is to support someone like Haddin to add extra runs. On flat conditions and against weak attacks,guys like johson and starc may have a ball. but in pressure filled games, their weaker technique is unlikely to hack it. Last time it was our no 7 Raina who played a crucial role in the quarters and semis. But a Johnson or strac will most likely fail to score an extra 84 runs for victory at 6 an over. the top order has to give them a more reasonable cushion.Frankly haddin or faulkner are the last guards at the border. In the game against NZ for example , your batting depth didn't help. if your top 6 fails, you are not going to win often.
Harry Jones
Expert
I'll go out on a limb and predict a big day for Dale Steyn. 4 or 5 quick wickets.
raz
Guest
I doubt aussies would allow a spinning track,but if it somehow still has some grip india shoupd get some help.I doubt there would be any turn though.
raz
Guest
I dont think that series was a real indicator,India was opening the bowling with binny ,nowhere ti e seen in wc. Plus india beat the same english side 4-1 in odi series in england just before the start of tour down under.
Bobbo7
Guest
Why? So Watson plays 1.5 good innings in 5 years and he is the second coming again? If Pakistan could catch he would have done his classic 20 runs and out job. And Watson is no better as a bowler.
Are you talking money or talent, because SA is not one of the big four if you are talking money and input into how things run.
Targa
Guest
England haven't made the semifinals in a WC since 1992. They are a consistently poor ODI team and they were lacking their experienced quality top-order batsmen (except Bell). Who would predict them to do well?
slane
Guest
Since when is making the quarter final considered 'doing well' in a World Cup?
slane
Guest
It doesn't really matter who you think the better teams were. Not one Iota. What matters is that Aus, India, SA and England are the big four cricketing nations and a tournament full of teams that beat the big 4 once a decade doesn't change that. We are in 100% agreement that SA, AUS and NZ were the form teams coming into the competition. But that wasn't the question, was it?
sd
Guest
so what good spin bowler ?indian will eat him seriously i m happy with 3 pace attack !@faulkner is better than a spin bowler !
taylorman
Roar Guru
Lucky the finals not in Sydney then, the kiwi capital...;-)
Sideline Comm.
Guest
Yep fair enough, I saw the stats. Great effort by the Indian supporters.
Renegade
Guest
You would take Anderson over Watson??.... you're all nuts.
Larney
Guest
I was at the SCG for the Australia Day washout. Believe me, it was a sea of blue. No home ground advantage in regard to support for Aus. I hope this game is not the same.
13th Man
Guest
Watson over Anderson...........................ARE YOU SERIOUS! I would take Anderson over Watto any day