India goes into the Cricket World Cup semi-final at the SCG unbeaten in seven starts, but they haven’t had to face Mitchell Starc. Today is their moment of truth.
With Starc using all his 197centimetre 92-kilogram frame to devastating effect, he’s captured 18 wickets in the tournament from only six games at a miserly 9.77 – far and away the best overall figures among the 14 countries.
The only two close to Starc are Black Cap Trent Boult with 21 wickets at 15.76 from eight games, and India’s Mohammed Shami with 17 at 13.29 from six.
They are 1-2-3 as the tournament’s most successful bowlers.
But Starc is the ‘Exterminator’, bowling around the 150km/h from the ‘third floor’, using his height and pace in tandem.
After taking 0-40 off seven in the Tri-Nations final against England, where he copped a bit of tap, Starc needed to kick-start his World Cup campaign, again against England.
And that’s exactly what he did.
His six-match stats – 2-47 off nine (England), 6-28 off nine (NZ), 2-18 off six (Afghanistan), 2-29 off 8.2 (Sri Lanka), 4-14 off 4.4 (Scotland), and 2-40 off 10 against Pakistan in the quarters.
Economy rate – 3.74.
But don’t overlook Shami, one of the major reasons why India has captured all 70 opposition wickets in their seven games, which is an unheard of stat.
But India hasn’t come up against an Australian batting order that can vary from explosive to erratic.
On the other side of the coin, ignore all India’s performances this summer in the Tests and one-dayers, they have been playing this World Cup as you’d expect the defending champions to play – unbeaten.
Comparing the attacks for the semi-final, Australia has a huge edge thanks to Starc, which will be magnified if Mitchell Johnson can regain his mojo of old, and start ripping and tearing like his left-arm partner.
Johnson’s 10 wickets at 24.60 aren’t the real deal, even though the only Australian bowler who has a better average is Josh Hazlewood, whose six wickets have cost 17.50.
James Faulkner’s four wickets have cost 25.50, Glenn Maxwell’s five at 32.60, and Shane Watson’s two scalps have been very costly at 59.50 apiece, and all three will have to play a vital role to cover the 50 overs.
Apart from Shami, India’s next best have been Umesh Yadav with 14 at 17.78, Mohit Sharma with 11 at 21.72, and Ravi Jadeja’s nine at 33.44.
Apart from Starc being the obvious spearhead, the Australian batting stacks up well if the tournament stats are to be a genuine guide.
1. David Warner 296 runs, top score 178, average 57.60 versus Rohit Sharma’s 296 – 137 – 49.33.
Verdict: Australia
2. Aaron Finch 199 – 135 – 33.16 versus Shikhar Dhawan 367 – 137 – 52.42.
Verdict: India
3. Steve Smith 241 – 95 – 48.20 versus Virat Kohli 304 -107 – 60.80.
Verdict: India
4. Michael Clarke 135 – 68 – 33.75 versus Ajinkya Rahane 164 – 79 – 32.80.
Verdict: Square
5. Shane Watson 178 – 67 – 44.50 versus Suresh Raina 277 – 110* – 69.25.
Verdict: India
6. Glenn Maxwell 301 – 102 – 75.25 versus MS Dhoni 172 – 85* – 57.33.
Verdict: Australia
On that basis, India hold the batting order advantage in three spots, Australia two, with one squared away. But where Australia will have a huge advantage will be the lower order.
Brad Haddin’s scored four Test tons, and two in ODIs, Faulkner one ODI ton, Johnson’s scored a Test ton, and Starc a Test 99, so there’s plenty of batting talent down below if the top order turn erratic.
India doesn’t have that lower order luxury.
Jadeja has scored 10 half-centuries in 80 digs, Ashwin two Test tons, Shami one half-century in 39 digs, Sharma has a top score of eight in 19 ODIs, while Yadav’s top score is 30 in 29 international digs.
My prediction is Australia to win in what promises to be another cracker of a game, maybe not with a six off the second last ball as in the first semi-final, but at least very competitive from the first ball to the last.
Targa
Guest
Nah, Mitchell won't be playing. Matt Henry is going to be 3rd seamer.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
I think people can make too much of Australian struggles against spin. Australia has struggles in low, slow, dry, spinning conditions. Spinners that ripped Australia apart on the sub-continent regularly come to Australia and find it's a very different story here and leave having averaged in 3 figures or very close to. In ODI's, spinners can often have the result of slowing the run-rate a bit though. That is common unfortunately. It's not that common that the spinners come on and get dominated when Australia is batting in ODI's. It happens occasionally, but not a lot these days. Warner has dramatically improved his play against spin, as shown in his results in the UAE earlier, but his strike rate against spin in ODI's is dramatically lower than it is against pace, and I don't think he's the only one there.
jameswm
Guest
"on a deck that has been prepared by the ICC to suit them" Really? Clarke said there was a bit of grass on it. Also, facing spinners in an ODI is different to test. Add in that Clarke and Smith are very good at playing spin, Watto isn't bad and Maxie is good too.
matty
Guest
i beg to differ chris, they have played far better than west indies and ireland on the other side of the pool. they made 280 ish against NZ (almost beating them as well). If you had watched them closely I wouldnt have made this assumption you have concluded to. Also the fact that they had built most of their batting thru partnerships and watch them go against NZ against a good bowling attack and get 280 is commendable.
jameswm
Guest
I think if Finch and Warner put on a partnership we'll win. We have excellent steadiers at 3 and 4 and blasters at 5-8 who are the best int he comp. However it's a big if. Finch and Warner have hardly set the earth on fire this WC. We've had the steadiers in too early and haven't got the run rate boost at the start.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Except that had they played against Bangladesh the Aussies likely would have handed them a bit of a toweling like India did in the QF, and may well have been the opportunity for a few of the batsmen to really pad their stats and averages against one of the weaker sides. All due respect to Bangladesh, but they made the QF's because England were abysmal rather than because of any great improvement in their own team.
saha
Guest
David warner scored 288 not 296
Craig Watson
Guest
I have no problem with our bowling attack. Starc will again swing the white ball. Hazlewood will drive India crazy with his nagging line and length. Faulks will use his clever variations. Johnno must step up. The problem I have is with our batting. In particular batting against their quality spinners, Ashwin and Jadeja, on a deck that has been prepared by the ICC to suit them. We, at last look, have just two blokes, Smith and Clarke, who you could say are capable players of quality spin.
Worlds Biggest
Guest
MJ needs to step up today, we can't rely on Starc to take most of the load. It looks like he is getting some form back so need to see that today. Likewise Finch & Warner really need to put on a decent stand.
jameswm
Guest
Starc, McCullum, Kohli, Warner, Boult, Maxwell, Sharma, Smith, Southee, Faulkner and many others could win this WC for their team.
Casper
Guest
no pressure on Starc then? he's on song at the moment and seems to have stepped up since Warney gave him a spray. Hazlewood and Johnson are the one's who have to step up, MJ going for far too many runs per over of late. Reckon he needs to hit a few fingers early, the Indian batsmen hate that. Will be interested in how the Indian bats attack the fifth bowler (Maxwell/Watson shared role). Watto might be a hero as a bowler, who knows.
Buk
Guest
Makes interesting reading David, thanks for the analysis.
Clark
Guest
And also the fact that Warner got all of his runs against a minnow too.
David Lord
Expert
Larney, I haven't forgotten anything. The aggregates aren't a level playing field, but the averages certainly are comparable stats.
Larney
Guest
Don't forget India played all their games. Australia didn't play against Bangladesh which could have altered those results and Watson didn't play against Afganistan (two minnow games), and Clarke didn't play against England's. Those batting stats mean little.