The ‘Roos revival’ at Melbourne unraveled miserably towards the end of last season. As incredulous as it is that one team can be so bad for so long, there’s very little to suggest the Demons will be rising anytime soon.
Let’s have a look at the list changes.
Additions
Heritier Lumumba (Collingwood), Jeff Garlett (Carlton), Sam Frost (GWS Giants), Christian Petracca, Alex Neal-Bullen, Billy Stretch, Oscar McDonald, Angus Brayshaw, Aaron Vandenberg, Mitchell White (draft).
Losses
Shannon Byrnes (retired), James Frawley (UFA – Hawthorn), Maia Westrupp (New Zealand), Sam Blease, James Strauss, Luke Tapscott, Mitch Clisby, Alex Georgiou, Daniel Nicholson (delisted)
What happened last year?
Just when it looked like Paul Roos was finally transforming this team into a competitive unit, the season unraveled before their eyes.
Ten consecutive losses at the end of the year, including an incomprehensible 64-point demolition at the hands of the Giants at home, left many wondering how much the team really progressed in 2014.
Melbourne made a quantum leap in their disposal differential, surging from -79 per game to -8.4. That said, the majority of that increase came from a massive rise in handballs, with their kicking differential among the league’s lowest. One must wonder whether the team actually improved, or whether Roos simply brought in a gameplan that suited a talent-deficient team.
Worryingly, despite still being on the wrong end of the disposal count in most of their matches, Melbourne fell away badly in their tackle differential per game, slipping from -2.9 per game to a competition-worst -9.3.
The improved results may have brought some excitement to the club, but Melbourne were still one of the worst teams in football last year, and could have very easily claimed the spoon.
What’s changed?
It was always going to be an uphill battle to retain James Frawley, but the Demons didn’t do too badly for themselves in receiving the draft’s third pick as compensation. Shannon Byrnes’ retirement opens up a spot for a youngster, and while the delisted players will make Melbourne fans cringe given the high hopes they held for just about all of them, they really had to go.
If Jeff Garlett can put his off-field issues behind him, he could prove to be a magnificent addition to the Demons’ forwardline. Heritier Lumumba’s best days are behind him, but he should be a serviceable rebounding defender for a couple more seasons. Sam Frost on the other hand brings enormous upside, but might still be a bit raw to be considered ‘the answer’ at full back right now.
The Demons made the moves they needed to make this offseason, but the road ahead still looks very, very long.
What needs to happen in 2015?
When Paul Roos was given a two-year deal, with an option for a third, to single-handedly turn this club around, I can’t have been the only person shaking their head. Three years is nowhere near the amount of time required to transform this club from one mired in a toxic losing culture to a regularly competitive, finals-capable team.
Given he’ll be handing over the keys to rookie coach Simon Goodwin in 2017, Roos needs to impart whatever knowledge and culture he was hoping to impart quickly.
Losing Christian Petracca for the season is yet another awful stroke of luck for the Demons, although it does give some of their fringe players another year to prove themselves before he takes his spot in the best 22 next year.
Melbourne have wisely added veteran talent over the last few seasons to mentor their young group, but they need to ensure young platers aren’t missing out on development time so Daniel Cross and Bernie Vince can have a victory lap.
The verdict
It’s true that Paul Roos has given this club a sense of direction for the first time in a long time. When this team eventually picks itself up off the ground, they’ll likely be pointing to his years in charge as the catalyst.
But they’ve still a very, very long way to get there. 2015 looks set to be another miserable year.
Prediction: 16th.
Rob
Guest
As a Melbourne supporter I hold very little hope for this season. Maybe 6 wins at least but can't honestly see where they come from. Could be 0-8 after 8 rounds
Stirling Coates
Editor
Finishing with the lowest tackle differential per game in the competition, but with a disposal differential still in the negatives is bad news no matter how you slice it. As noted in the article, their surge in dispsal differential can be attributed to an extremely handball-happy gameplan and is probably more smoke and mirrors than a sign they're retaining possession more effectively.
Gecko
Guest
So the only useful player that they lost was Frawley, whilst they've recruited reasonably well and they've got a young team that's a year older. I'd say their prospects in 2015 are better than their prospects were at the start of 2014. And be wary about tackling statistics. Maybe their tackle differential went down because they had the ball more often. Sure they'll still be in the bottom third in 2015 but Demons supporters should at least be satisfied that nowadays they're competitive.
TomC
Roar Guru
'One must wonder whether the team actually improved, or whether Roos simply brought in a gameplan that suited a talent-deficient team.' Spot on. And even with that they copped some drubbings. I hope they come out and really take it up to the Suns in round one, because Gold Coast have had a bit of a disrupted pre-season and might be a bit fragile. But otherwise I can't see them being even competitive for many weeks, so if they have yet another disappointing round one performance their fans and players could be emotionally shattered by May.
Bob GOOCH
Guest
Yes unfortunately I agree with most of your comment. As a MFC member for many years the losing culture has been endemic and the disgraceful shift away from its heartland and its spiritual home will take a long time to recapture - it's good to see the CEO and President have now recognised this and are seemingly trying to bring the club home. Thankfully Garry ponce Lyon has no part on the board and who's voice has long disappeared into the wilderness