Will we ever know what happened at Essendon? Just kidding! This is a drug saga-free zone.
It’s time nail down how the Super Rugby teams have fared and have a stab at where it might all end up come June.
So far this season, rugby has been a bubble for me – a bubble to poke my head into, to escape and just turn off. I haven’t even tweeted as much while watching rugby this year (shock, horror) because I just want to enjoy the fact I’m watching rugby.
It’s my first year working full time in local news. And Saturday was the culmination of the first election I’ve covered. Whatever you think of us media (you’re probably talking about how we’re all hacks under your breath, I can deal with that), the journalists might come second to the party-involved on the list of most worn out folk after an election.
Since December last year, the candidates and their party heavy-weights have been racing around my western Sydney electorates like a pack of hounds after a rabbit in a forest – and I’ve been trying to keep up.
I haven’t watched as many games live as I’d like to, but even scheduling time to watch them on replay has been a life saver.
I’ve chosen my topics carefully until this point of the season – and missed a week – because I didn’t want to deceive anyone. While I’ve researched and written about narrower topics, I haven’t made as many sweeping diagnoses as I usually do by this point of the season.
This week I want to run the rule over the lot. Let me know if you think I’m misguided and need to go and read another budget announcement.
Group A: You can’t win the competition in seven rounds, but you can certainly lose it
The Reds, Blues and Force are languishing.
Technically it’s still probably possible for any of these guys to make the finals, but it’s not going to happen.
Force fans are probably crestfallen this week as they consider the possibility of sitting out the draw and emerging on the bottom of the table if the Reds and Blues both win. After starting so brightly against the Waratahs in week one, they now haven’t won in a month and a half.
What went wrong?
It’s the same problems as last year unfortunately – the ones that prevented them from making the finals have been compounded now their pack isn’t able to assert the same level of dominance this year. They can’t score enough points, are missing an impact forward and they don’t have a good enough fly half.
The Force must recruit or develop a better number 10 and find that Wycliff Palu, Scott Higginbotham, Michael Hooper-type impact forward that separates a hard working pack from an elite one.
Where to start with the Reds? Primarily I don’t think their coach is good enough. Someone else needs to run that team now.
On a talent level they still have some high-level Super Rugby players, but compare this year’s team to 2011’s side. Their talent has waned after a number of years’ lacklustre recruitment and not quite finding the next generation to push the championship veterans to the top of the mountain again.
Samu Kerevi looks like a find, but they need more of them to pan out and a better general to put all the pieces together.
Its one step forward and two steps backward for the Blues. What a shame too, because my man Francis Saili is still waiting for a chance to shine in a good backline, but he’s on this Blues side instead. I can’t put my finger on what exactly is going wrong there.
I think it has to be leadership and coaching – because game preparation lets them down regularly. They haven’t got a consistent style and they seem to be chasing the opposition rather than planning effectively.
I’d hate to be the one to sack a ‘Sir’, but with the likes of Patrick Tuipolotu, Steven Luatua, Jerome Kaino, Francis Saili, Frank Halai and Charles Piutau you shouldn’t end up six and zero.
Group B: One more bad turn and we’ll need to switch of the life support
Cheetahs, Rebels and Lions are on life support, and the prognosis isn’t good.
After two weeks – despite losing to the Waratahs – the Rebels looked like they’d finally turned the corner. But since then they’ve only beaten the Force. They can’t score enough and in fact are a slightly better version of the Force.
The Rebels will still knock off a few teams they shouldn’t this year but will have to find a completely new plane of efficiency to have a hope of sneaking into the finals.
Remember that Cheetahs team from two year’s ago that defended stoutly, didn’t lose the ruck battle and had an efficient and long-range attack lead by Willie Le Roux. Now they’ve leaked so many points in six games, struggle to win a ruck that doesn’t involve some Heinrich Brussow genius and the back line runs hot and cold.
The Lions fans need to remember that it was just the Rebels and Reds. I’m not trying to burst the bubble too much, but a bit of reality is useful. A team with three wins from seven and a points differential of minus-54 isn’t legitimate. They’re more likely to stick somewhere around their group B brethren than climb the log. I’d be happy if they proved me wrong.
Group C: The Crusaders
The Crusaders are in their own group. One week after apparently coming to life they suddenly looked like an ordinary team on a road trip to South Africa, rather than a team that is getting it together.
I’m still confident they’ll work things out – they always do – but I can’t assume yet.
The problem is the Chiefs and Hurricanes have a good gap now and even the Highlanders might not be easy to catch for a sneaky second New Zealand wildcard spot.
Group D: Ready to mug someone for a ticket to the show
Sharks, Stormers, Bulls, Waratahs and Highlanders are fighting for three finals spots.
The Stormers, Bulls and Sharks are in a three-way tussle at the moment and the collective mediocrity means the South African conference only has one team in the top six.
I don’t know which way it’s going to break yet. The best team travelling to Australasia is going to have great shot at booking a home final.
The Stormers need to score bonus points to make the most of their wins. The Sharks can’t leak 60 more points than the other conference leaders and hope to be taken seriously. The Bulls need to assert their dominance while they are in South Africa right up until Round 14.
Despite their win over the Brumbies I think it’s likely the Waratahs will still finish second in the Australian conference. They’re just not consistent enough, as the Blues street fight of a rugby game showed.
Looking at it like an English Premier League race, the Waratahs trail the Brumbies by two points, but have a bye this week. By the time the Brumbies have their second bye in Round 16 the Waratahs need to have clawed back at least three points to make use of that enforced absence.
The Highlanders are the New Zealand version of the Waratahs. They’ve got so much talent in the pack and in the backline, but haven’t been as consistent as could be expected of them this year. Their recent form has been on an uptick, besides that weird Hurricanes match up, so maybe they’ll go on a tear during the second half of the season. They have the quality.
The ‘Landers and ‘Tahs are the most likely to make the leap from this group.
Group E: Come and get me
The Hurricanes, Brumbies, and Chiefs are the pace-setters at the moment.
The Brumbies haven’t been pretty but they’ve been efficient and, at times, brutal. So you have to give them the credit they deserve. They are still the team to beat in the Australian conference and have the combination of strength, speed and experience to go on the road and get enough points to fend off the Waratahs.
They need to make sure they don’t get dragged into a wrestling match and remember to use their backline strengths to score and not stop doing that as the year wears on.
The Chiefs are tweaking, tuning and waiting. After a number of years going through the grinder, winning championships and making the finals, I think they’ll put it together. When they’re on song their set-piece attack is still the best in the world and they already have their South African trip done and dusted.
By Round 18 they’ll probably be playing the Hurricanes for the top spot in the New Zealand conference.
The Hurricanes are the only unbeaten side left in Super Rugby but haven’t been infallible. I wouldn’t expect Roarer Diggercane to tip against them, but they’ll lose a few this year. So far an uncanny composure has seen them rid out tough patches and brilliant execution has allowed them to capitalise on the good patches.
I feel great about the Hurricanes though – they’ve been a star-studded team that has struggled to put together six good games in a season, let alone six in a row. It’s refreshing to see them finally come good and win the tough games as well as the open-TJ-and-Savea-will-tear-you-apart ones.
Billy Bob
Guest
There you go Peter K - one just bit. But you did tease him. Ben Smith is amazing though. Better than Dagg now.
DMac
Guest
Well hold on, the Tahs have only played one quality team outside the Brumbies, away from home. I think we may need a slightly bigger sample set....
Chivas
Guest
And who told them not to contest, their coach? Give a guy an opening and he will run it all day. That was definitely a shining example of how not to react to what is happening on the field... and through it all Highlanders favourite son shone like a bright light :-)
ClarkeG
Roar Guru
Harry. The scary thing is I'm sure you believe what you have written regarding this incident. "Steyn misjudged how small Cruden is" .......Harry pleasssseeeeeeee.
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Akari, I have no doubt that the Blues will win a few games back on their favourite piece of turf, they are harder to beat at Eden Park. The CWC sort of changed the scheduling. I am in agreement with your assertions in general about the AB's in the squad, Kaino has tried to lead by example and has been very good in my opinion. But is more than just that, for some reason they team is not gelling into a functional unit and one would, I believe have to lay the blame for that at the feet of the Coaches. This is the 3rd year Sir JK has been suggesting, they are progressing. With a win rate of around 35% for a major franchise, I would suggest they have retracted rather than progressed. In that with 2 wins of 20 on the road can hardly be considered a pass mark. Sir JK, CV is also taking a pounding here.
Harry Jones
Expert
The potential for injury should not be a factor in assessing foul play. It is "how foul the play is." A tackle gone wrong (with some help from Reinach) is not that foul. Not many players are actually hurt by spear tackles. More are hurt in the front row bc of crooked engagements by props. Neck injuries are massive. Steyn misjudged how small Cruden is, and how fat Steyn's tummy is, and the momentum wasn't helped by his teammates joining in, and so the ref should just say: "Frans, watch it. Penalty." The thing was, the ref was worried about the game getting out of hand. And Frans is not popular, too. I would say this about any nationality. The policing of tip tackles and in the air challenges is silly now. A dominant tackle is cool. Give me stats that show tip tackles are more dangerous than a lineout--playing man in the air, which blows out ankles and knees, or bad scrum engagements (career ending).
Harry Jones
Expert
He hypnotised the Stormers into not even trying to catch a high ball. he slipped, got up, still got it in traffic
bennalong
Guest
That's amazing Elisha.
Chivas
Guest
AB's.Who cares, half the Wallabies are the best in the world... Conrad Smith is rubbish, McCaw is old, Higginbotham is all over Read like white on rice, Quade is the best first five on the planet, Folau is the greatest FB. All familiar comments here on the roar. And guess what all backed up by loads of stats without context. Anyway my mistake for thinking you were saying Folau was more elusive based on stats with SFA context. The thread started saying Ben was and remains one of the most elusive. It was you who turned it into a p55ing contest based on two overly simplistic stats. Not that I think you were really stating it as fact, but an observation. I just think the observation lacks any real meat. And my comment wasn't a red herring, but a misunderstanding of the point your were making. For that I apologise. But is it not elusive when you kick and regather to set it up, further upfield. Isn't that eluding opposition players to move it up field. Anyway I'll leave it with you.
RobC
Roar Guru
Thanks Elisha. The five conferences are still mid-war. Next couple of games will be the critical ones to watch. The fortunes of the Bismarks may not be sunk yet.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Yes he has gone well. And oddly, the Canes have had better sides in the past and much better back lines, if that's possible. But this year they just seem to have gone "click" and found their mojo. This side is typical of canes sides of the past that would just go down after having a series of highs and lows. This year? surreal.
Elisha Pearce
Expert
I'm happy enough to see Dargaville get some game time.
Digby
Roar Guru
Depends, how much do you want the Kosch jersey? ;)
Sam Taulelei
Guest
Agree Ben, after Perenara's debut season was cruelly cut short with a broken leg, he looked to me upon his return like a player who wanted to prove himself and fell into the trap of trying too hard to force the play, that resulted in poor decision making, which led to more time hogging the pine and the harder he tried the worse things got. Spending time last year in the All Blacks training camps and then being part of match day squads and touring would have opened his eyes and been very instructional. Now we're seeing him play with greater maturity, assurance and authority.
Sam Taulelei
Guest
It's widely acknowledged that Kuridrani is the leading centre in Australia and world class. His absence will be keenly felt by the Burmbies and given that the majority of tries scored were against the luckless Reds, even when Kuridrani was playing I have doubts about how well he can be replaced by Ah Wong or anyone else for the matches ahead. Or even by reshuffling the backline to accommodate the return of Jesse Mogg.
ChrisG
Roar Rookie
Excellent analysis. There are still plenty of teams in the race and I'm looking forward to the rest of the competition.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Yes that's true, they will be spoiled for choice once those two return. I don't think we've seen the best of Speight this season and both he and Tomane have been inconsistent. Hopefully they both get their game on.
Joe
Roar Rookie
Thanks, was just looking at Nigels Ah Wongs stats and highlights. He seems to have it all, size, speed, skills and a nice streak of aggro. Hopefully if he's picked he goes well.
Roberts
Guest
Couldn't agree more combesy! New coach and an injection of mongrel! Look forward to seeking tua start his first game after South Africa tour! Graham must go regardless, "sir" kirwan is under pressure with a 35 percent win ratio, we would love a 35 percent win ratio!! What is nick styles doing atm? He did a good job winning the nrc with Brisbane city! Scrum will look better with a forwards coach and with cooper, oconnor and hunt the backs will look after themselves...
Brett McKay
Expert
The 'Canes have a handy draw after the bye, too Sam. Tahs, Reds, Crusaders, Sharks, Chiefs - and only the Reds away. Being able to host the highly-fancied teams at home could prove to be a godsend..