A different look at Super Rugby stats

The correlation between "offloads" and "tries scored" is weak (r=0.35). The relationship between "score ratio" and "offload ratio" is much weaker even (r=0.001). But there might well exist a second-order relationship between "line breaks", "offloads", and "tries scored". However, from the stats available, it is impossible to analyse for such a relationship directly, since one is recorded as a termiinal action (per player) and the other not. So, it's back to what your intuition tells you on this one.

"Brumbies make few line breaks and beat few defenders per carry since they have such a grinding forward based game." The Brumbies sample for 2015 Brumbies - average line breaks in games they have won: 7.3 Brumbies - average line breaks in games they have lost: 5.1 The entire 2015 population All games - average line breaks for winning team: 9.5 All games - average line breaks for losing team: 7.0 The Hurricanes 2015 sample (just for comparison...and since we will see this match-up on Saturday) Hurricanes - average line breaks in games they have won: 11.2 Hurricanes - average line breaks in games they have lost: 14.5 PeterK, I think you have put your finger on the most compelling of all of the stats. I have done fairly significant analysis of the the "holy grail" stats that we are bombarded with on a weekly basis, and it seems that "line breaks" (clean breaks) have by far the most significant correlation to "tries scored", which in turn is (expectedly) the most significant correlator for "highest score". For those interested in the various correlations: "r" for score ratio - try ratio is 0.79 "r" for tries - clean breaks is 0.59 "r" tries - for metres run with ball is 0.5 "r" tries - offloads is 0.35 "r" tries - defenders beaten is 0.32 "r" tries - turnovers conceded is 0.06 when "metres run" is removed from the above list and used as a measure against the other factors, then: "r" for metres - breaks is 0.81 "r" for metres - defenders beaten is 0.68 "r" for metres - offloads is 0.64 "r" for metres - turnovers is 0.33 There's a picture emerging, but no "holy grail", as yet.

Thanks Harry.

Hear hear RT. Currently in the middle of nowhere with one bar of signal if I stand on a wobbly tree trunk and stick my tongue out to the left. I'm not a numbers man but I do like reading about these kinds of data and the insights they give. Thanks for taking the time to find them. A great read.

the Blues are always going to feature in a list like this when it just talks about line breaks. Their team is packed with game breaking individuals, every one of whom is a master of breaking the line or beating a tackle. But that's actually part of the problem. Good coaching gets all those talented individuals playing as a team, supporting breaks, working together at the breakdown, trusting each other in defence, and working off a consistent game plan. Under Sir John, the team plays as a bunch of individuals without strong cohesion. When he coached Japan it was the same. He had talented individuals who could run up massive scores against lesser opposition, but when it came to tougher games, they didn't have the disciplined approach and the solid gameplan to compete and win tight games. Sir John needs to go away and develop a team at a lower level and learn how to work with less talented individuals and still create a winning team. At the moment he just wants to rely on individual brilliance, which doesn't win games until you've done the hard work first.

That's great Harry, some interesting work there. I'd like to see something about offloads in there, particularly following a line break. I have a feeling that offloads win games but aren't sure if the statistics back that up. Joe Schmidt says no to offloads, but you see SBW or Kieran Read suddenly kill some team by getting the ball away to a supporter in a totally unexpected way.

Harry - AT tahs Cheika believes in the 2 playmaker. He retained that at the Wallabies but he did not win with it. I do not know if he is a believer in it as opposed to having little choices. No big 12 at tahs. At Wallabies his choices in the limited time would appear to be Inman or Kerevi or Tapui if he does not want a 2nd playmaker. None of these are compelling. IF he considered , and for good reason won't, Folau at 12 and Kuridrani at 13 then yes it would be a better combo.

Canes playing best available team, no rests this week. A good hard test for the forwards, should be close.

Sure thing, to top the comp. One or two top-shelf backs will turn their close losses into comfortable wins - and lift them to mid-table.

Correction to my original post: He has played six tests outside QC, Harry, being the third Bled and EOYT tour in 2013. A total of six tests, 4 wins and 2 losses. He has never played outside JOC - O'Connor's last test as Wallaby No 10 was in the 2013 B&I Lions tour, before Toomua played his first test.

Toomua was outside QC, it was in 2013 I think. They showed the best combo of the lot so far. That said I am not sold on 2 playmakers for aust.

That's a bit harsh isn't it? His first two tests, playing at 10 against the All Blacks? And its not as though things changed much when the very experienced Cooper came on, or when he replaced him at 10 in later matches. Sure, in our very last match of the 2013 TRC we cut loose with seven tries against Argentina, but before that it was an average of 1 try per game, regardless of whether Toomua or Cooper was at 5/8. That indicates that our forwards were having a hard time of it, which I would have thought means that a test rookie thrown in as fly-half against the All Blacks could be cut a bit of slack.

Nene Milner-Skudder has the right pedigree to eventually fill in the gap that will be left after Charles Piutau departs for Ireland next year as a utility 'BBB' Barrett has got your number Harry! The Stormers played a blueprint of the Canes last week in the 'Landers. While Milner-Skudder is no Ben Smith, he is pretty handy.... and he is only going to get better! You have cause for concern once the ball gets a bit of air .

Unfortunately, the Blues for the rest of 2015 will be hurdles to overcome for those teams who are in contention. Like a cracked record, I say...... "there is always next year"..