Last week I analysed the creative offers in phase play made by Australian fullbacks in the Super Rugby.
I began this process by specifically looking at Israel Folau and the offers he made in phase attack in order to help inform my own coaching.
However, the more I watched him the more I realised that to better understand what he does, it is worth looking at the play of other fullbacks. This week I will compare the creative offers made by the fullbacks from the New Zealand sides who played against those of Israel Folau.
This week I analysed four fullbacks from three matches and the amount of times they received the ball in phase play, from a ruck or maul or from set piece turnover.
I disregarded anytime they got the ball from their own set piece, because these are usually moves created by a coach. I also disregarded anytime the fullback received the ball in a kick return situation because this usually relies on individual creativity to create attacking opportunities.
In confining myself to only phase play I understand there are some limitations to the data. I also realise that having data on one game for each of the New Zealand fullbacks to compare also brings its own restraints. To get a true feel it would be great to continue this over the length of a whole season and compare all players in the back three across all Super Rugby Conferences.
Using the same analysis that I did with the Australian fullbacks, I looked at how often they offered themselves in phase play.
| Player | Opposition | Offers | Received | Line Breaks | Try Assists | Try | Turn Over | Team possession % |
| Israel Dagg | Highlanders | 18 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 51% |
| Ben Smith | Crusaders | 12 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 49% |
| Charles Piutau | Brumbies | 13 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 51% |
| Totals | 43 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
I have credited Israel Dagg with a try assist even though he didn’t touch the ball in try scored by Matt Todd. He did provide a dummy run on the outside of Colin Slade that held the defence up in creating the try in the corner.
| Player | Opposition | Offers | Received | Line Breaks | Try Assists | Try | Turnover | Team Possession % |
| Israel Folau | Stormers | 18 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 68% |
| Israel Folau | Brumbies | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 52% |
| Israel Folau | Blues | 23 | 15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 58% |
| Totals | 54 | 36 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
It becomes obvious when you look at Israel Folau over his past three matches for the Waratahs that he makes a lot more offers than his New Zealand counterparts. He also has more line breaks and try assists, but I think that this could change if we had more data on the New Zealand fullbacks, especially Dagg and Smith.
However, he receives the ball much less often than the New Zealand fullbacks after making an offer. Why is this so? Is it because as the Waratahs hammer away at the opposition defence Folau loiters near the ball carrier in an effort to receive the ball?
Or do the Waratahs have an attack structure that relies as much on the individual brilliance of players such as Folau?
Setting aside Charles Piutau for the minute and comparing Folau to Dagg and Smith, there are some interesting differences. The first of which is that both Smith and Dagg made numerous offers from turnover ball. Smith made six offers from turn over ball, receiving it each time while Dagg made four offers receiving it each time. Folau across three matches only made one offer after turnover ball.
In my analyses of the fullbacks I also collected data on the running line of the fullback and the type of pass received, be it a longer spiral pass or a shorter pop pass. It is in this data that there is a great difference between Folau and the New Zealand fullbacks.
Folau across three matches made eight runs where he attacked the inside shoulder of a defender by going straight or running an unders line. Smith made seven runs and Dagg eight on a straight or unders line in one game. What is interesting to note is that the turnovers (knock-ons) Smith and Dagg made both occurred when they were attempting at run an overs line, the same line that Folau runs regularly.
Smith received the ball four (1 in 3) times with a pop pass while Dagg (1 in 2) received eight short pop passes from teammates. Folau across three matches only received the ball ten times, or one in five from short pop passes.
So where does all this data lead? As a coach, what do I want out of my fullback in creating offer from phase play? As Billy Beane, the baseball manager behind sabermetrics, said, “It’s not a matter of whether sabermetrics or statistics have an impact – the challenge is finding the ones that have the strongest correlation.”
I’m still mulling a few things over and searching for the correlations but would love to hear suggestions from fellow Roarers as to what they would like to see the back three offer during phase play.
gary
Guest
Looks like you lost your money lad.
Taylorman
Guest
1987 the first try was actually a penalty try which try which they thought was ominous for the tournament. That didn't last long with jones try then JK's stunner.
2211
Guest
RT, if memory serves Micheal Jones scored the opening try in both the 1986 and 1991 World Cups. A remarkable player.
chasmac
Guest
Yawn. The focus is on IF because that is where the analysis has been done.
winston
Guest
Stats that matter = the ones that make Izzy look better than FBs he's inferior too.
Rugby Tragic
Guest
which taylorman was my point when he compared Nehe with Ben Smith whose rise, at least to me was sort of unexpected (transformed from a good player to one of the first picked in 2013).... BTW, I am pleased I was wrong, his form in 2012 and in particular in 2013 was fantastic.. his try in the Ellis Park classic was one out of the box. Lets see what Milner-Skudder can do before we put the weight of expectation on his shoulders to live up to being a 'once in a generation player'. If (when) he is selected for National duties lets see if he can translate his brilliance at the higher level. The new Christian Cullen perhaps - maybe? .. Only time will tell. You are right about Michael Jones, he was so well respected for his potential but his legend was made over a bit of time with consistent and continual sublime performances. It was fitting that he scored the 1st ever try in the Rugby World Cup. No one can ever take that away from him.
chasmac
Guest
Hey Liam, What is the breakdown of the reasons Izzy was turned over 7 times out of 36 carries? (E.G. good defense/bad decision from ball carrier on the best transfer option / bad execution on a good transfer decision etc). Similarly, what are the reasons he received only 36 times for 54 offers? It would be interesting to try and work out what the ball carriers are trying to achieve when they go into contact. Also it would be interesting to see if IF is mixing things up between being a decoy and a ball receiver.
taylorman
Roar Guru
Yes he does...but he's come on much faster than Smith and the issue is whether he turns out to be a bit of an Andre Taylor who got sussed out- just don't kick it to him and he can't go on one of his solo runs. Some players don't need an apprenticeship- Michael Jones needed half an All Black trial and he became the best flanker in world rugby overnight. But there aren't many of him around.
Wal
Roar Guru
Jason Robinson, Brad Thorn, Lote Tuqiri, Matt Rogers All had break out debut seasons in Union.
Harry Jones
Expert
There's been a bit of adventure. Players whose stock has risen: Jessie Kriel SP Marais (but I'm not sold) Rudy Paige and Faf de Klerk (not going to be Boks) Handre Pollard (if it's possible to rise higher) Burger Odendaal (who is this guy?!) Juan de Jongh Damian de Allende (already high) Warren Whiteley Vincent Koch Steven Kitshoff
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Hi sesenta, thanks for your post. Yes I was very aware that Ben Smith debuted for the AB’s in 2009, I remember that well as he was chosen ahead of one of my favorites, Joe Rokocoko for the tour. Smith was not in the mix in 2010 as the AB’s started to build for the 2011 RWC with the likes of Cory Jane, Richard Kahui, Israel Dagg, Mils Muliaina Zac Guildford and Isaia Toeava the back three candidates was very crowded, particularly with several able to cover multiple positions. It was very competitive Ben Smith was overlooked along with players such as Hosea Gear and the veteran Sitiveni Sivivatu all very good players in their own right.. Following the RWC, Hansen had to to rebuild. Ben Smith, the Dunedin boy was always a good player but it was his 2012 Super 15 rugby form that bought him to the fore again. He had to earn his stripes and I don’t know if too many thought the he would become the player that he did, particularly in 2013. It was is in that context that I was suggesting “he snuck up on everyone” after being a fringe player to become a 1st choice AB. I was responding to a poster who was suggesting Nehe Milner-Skudder in his first year at S 15 level was a “once a generation player’ comparing him to be in the same mould as Ben Smith, even before any selection to be in any All Black squad, Milner-Skudder is a very good player but like Ben Smith, he needs to serve his apprenticeship first...
sesenta y cuatro
Roar Pro
Dear Rugby Tragic. As early as 2009 Ben Smith was tried by Graham Henry on the right wing for the All Blacks. I think it was the game against Italy in the end of year tour. It was a bit too early. 2010 and 2011 he kept on improving and helping the Highlanders to punch above their weight. He was often used to cover 14 or 12 whenever the injuries required a Mr Fix it. In 2012 his form was difficult to sidestep and he got a call up in the ABs... I would hardly say 'he snuck up on everyone'. I would rather say that his form for the Highlanders in 2010 and 2011 probably made him unlucky of not making the All Blacks those years.
sesenta y cuatro
Roar Pro
Dear Liam, If we are talking about stats that matter, please try to average over an extended period of time (where extended is greater than 10). When not properly averaged, stats are not reliable. Also, please try to avoid mixing objective data (meters run, tries scored...) with subjective appreciations (X better than Y).
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Nice post Suzy, with reference to Folau's best position is Winger.. I agree but also have some reservations as to being absolutely top shelf in that position due to his lack of genuine pace, I recall Savea running him down twice in 2013 (at the Cake Tin if I am not mistaken). Izzy Folau is a big man but opposition players are also huge. No longer can wingers get away purely by being fleet of foot, they need to be defuse bombs (Izzy does that very well), be able to attack, break tackles and finish and they need to be able to defend. As a winger his defence is OK but I think in the custodian's position he has has been caught out of position on more occasions than I would feel comfortable with.
Harry Jones
Expert
Rugby Tragic, he's probably our RWC bolter. Unless Meyer is going to stick with Lambie/Hougaard as backup 15
Harry Jones
Expert
Yeah, I have to always establish a "rate" for the stats. I like your "offer" stat. For me, the efficiency on attack is key.
Harry Jones
Expert
Folau has kicked about 5 times all season
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Yep but how does that help Folau his exit kicks when necessary?
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Thanks ... but I will pay closer attention to Jesse Kriel.. just like to see where the future threats are coming from
Harry Jones
Expert
He is on sabbatical