No South African side can win Super Rugby, but that's good news for the Springboks

This year’s edition of Super Rugby hasn’t been without its surprises, and none more so than the South African conference.

Earlier this year I wrote a five-article preview series of all the respective teams in the conference and at the conclusion of all of them I made a few predictions.

Suffice to say I couldn’t have been more wrong.

When the season started the two firm favourites for the conference were the Bulls and more directly the Sharks, and with good reason. Both teams have an inordinate amount of Springboks in their ranks and both had recent successes to validate their status as favourites.

The Bulls are always a force in the competition, or at least since their first title back in 2007, and the Sharks have historically been the second strongest South African team in the competition, coupled with the fact that they looked so impressive last year.

No one really gave the Lions, Cheetahs or Stormers a chance, myself included. There really wasn’t much to get excited about.

The Cheetahs were perennial punching bags in 2014 and the Lions faded away in the second half of the season. The Stormers were very poor in 2013 and 2014, and despite winning the Currie Cup for the record 33rd time as Western Province they just didn’t look the part.

Currently the Bulls and the Stormers lead the conference, the Lions have been hot and cold, but enjoyed the best Australasian tour since the Stormers’ outing in 2012, the Cheetahs started well, but have fallen back into that same old same old state, and the Sharks… Well, the Sharks are in a pickle despite being relatively close to the front runners of the lot.

On paper most Roarers would summise that the South African conference is OK-ish, meaning not particularly bad or particularly good, just in between, or at most, leaning towards a strong overall conference.

What is interesting to me is how the local derbies have gone so far. The Sharks have now lost five games against South African opposition, twice against the Bulls, once against the Lions, once against the Stormers and once against the Cheetahs. That is something that they will not be happy about.

The Bulls have lost against the Lions and the Stormers while the Lions lost against the Sharks, Bulls and Stormers. The Cheetahs have that golden victory against the Sharks in the first round. The Stormers are currently unbeaten in the conference.

So, when you look at it that way, the Stormers are currently the best side out of the lot. They’re a few points behind the Bulls, but they’ve completed their Australasian tour. They have the majority of their remaining games at home and they are yet to fall against South African opposition.

This weekend they will face the Bulls in what should be another fantastic battle in the greatest rivalry in all domestic South African sport. History and statistics are good signs for the Capetonians.

They have faced the Bulls 25 times in Super Rugby and they have won 13, lost 11 and have only drawn once. Couple that with the fact that the Bulls haven’t beaten the Stormers in Cape Town since 2010 and that the Stormers hold close to a 90 per cent win rate at Newlands since Allister Coetzee took over, and things look bright for the Cape team.

You can’t discard the Bulls, though. They are, historically, the undisputed champions of all the South African teams in the competition. Nevertheless I believe that this weekend’s victor will be the conference winner.

Now bearing in mind the fact that the South African derbies have been a bit of a mixed bag, to truly understand the strength of the conference, I looked into the overall record against both Kiwi and Aussie sides.

It would seem that the Saffers have the Aussies right where they want them. Many believe the Waratahs to be the top dog in the Australian conference and the Stormers whacked them on their home turf. If the Stormers aren’t even going to be the winners of their group then that still makes a fairly good stat. If the Brumbies retain their top spot then their fixture against the Stormers at Newlands will be a good indication of where they’re at.

The performance against the Kiwi conference isn’t that flash, let no one tell you otherwise, but it also isn’t a complete train smash either.

So as a whole I have come to four conclusions. The first is that the South Africans are much better than they were last year as they’ve already doubled their wins abroad from last year and the Bulls are yet to tour.

The second is that, as a conference, the South Africans are better than the Australians. The third is that, as a conference, the South Africans are weaker than the Kiwis.

The fourth is that no South African team will win the competition this year. In my view there are four contenders, two from Australia (Brumbies and Waratahs) and two from New Zealand (Hurricanes and Chiefs).

So in a nutshell, what I’m saying is that as a conference the South Africans are strong. They’re not colossal, but they’re in a really good place. Most of our teams seem pretty evenly matched, but that can change in the next few weeks.

The reason I’m saying that no South African team will win the trophy this year is simply because I have yet to see a chain of truly inspiring performances by our teams.

The two best wins in my view were the Bulls taking the Crusaders to the cleaners and the Stormers stunning the Waratahs. Of the two games I pick the Bulls game to be more impressive.

Don’t get me wrong, as a Stormers supporter I was on cloud nine when we beat the defending champions with four tries, but it was a tad familiar to me.

The game was won by exceptional defence, something the Stormers are revered for. I’ve seen games just like it in the past. In 2012, the Stormers arrived in New Zealand to take on the Highlanders, who at that point were leading the overall log. They smashed them convincingly 21-10. The key statistics were that the Highlanders made two linebreaks the whole game and the Stormers missed just eight tackles. After that they lost to the Crusaders, but bounced back by beating the Reds equally as convincing and the Force after that.

In 2013, the Stormers beat all the qualifying sides except the Crusaders. After losing their two opening games against the Bulls and Sharks respectively, they were confronted by that season’s finalists – the Chiefs and the Brumbies. The Stormers went on to beat both those sides, putting almost 40 points on both of them.

It’s hard to argue that the Stormers class of 2012 was one of the most impressive in the competition’s history. They won 14 games out of 16 before losing out to the Sharks at Newlands in the semi-final and they did it with almost perfect defence. It was a hallmark of theirs. They drove players back in almost every single tackle.

So the win against the Waratahs was exceptional, but it doesn’t convince me because they’ve done it before and it has failed them in no less than three consecutive play-off games (2010 final, and the 2011 and 2012 semi-finals).

The Bulls maybe could have convinced me had they not lost so easily against the Stormers in Round 1 and against the Lions recently.

The sad fact is that although South African teams continuously produce some of the most comprehensive wins, more often than not they fail to emulate these efforts in the play-offs and especially away from home.

The only way I see a South African team winning the trophy is if one of them is at first place at the end of the league phase, something that looks highly unlikely seeing as the Kiwis are choke-holding that position.

I hope I’m wrong though (go Stormers!).

So, if I’m right then why would there be any reason to get excited for South African fans? Simple, our teams aren’t falling apart and as a collective we’re having some success.

I agree, it’s not something you jump up and down about, but there are some good signs popping up for the Springboks this year.

It might be flawed reasoning, but I see the relatively evenly matched situation of our conference to be a good thing because it begs a question that has only one of two possible answers. Why are the local derbies so close?

It can either be because the teams filled with Springboks aren’t performing that well because the younger players are pushing hard for that World Cup spot, or because the Springbok players simply aren’t on form. I lean more towards the first possibility.

I don’t think the Bok players are performing particularly poorly, though a few exceptions can always be found. But what really excites me is that there are numerous players in their respective teams that are actually picking up some huge form.

Here are just a few of them.

Jesse Kriel
Kriel’s rise to stardom is a blessing from the rugby gods because it means a smaller possibility for Zane Kirchner to return. Willie le Roux will play for the Boks and it’s good to see that we’ve actually found an able replacement for him.

Kobus van Wyk
A future Springbok winger in the making. Kobus has impressed since last year, but this year he’s taken his game to the next level. His aerial capabilities are almost equal to that of Bjorn Basson, just check the first minute of last week’s game, his try against the Tahs before that and owning Julian Savea in the air the week before that. He is also a good player with ball in hand.

Elton Jantjies
Jantjies returned from Japan a new player. He still misses tackles, which is a worry, but his attacking play has helped the Lions cross the line on numerous ocassions.

Handre Pollard
Pollard’s just picking up where he left off last year and it’s amazing to see what he’s capable of with a fast, nippy scrummie like Rudy Paige on his inside.

Willem Alberts
His first game back from injury left a poor Lions player unconscious on the ground. Still early days, but he looks abrasive.

Damian de Allende
A possibility for the best midfielder in the comp so far. Damian does what no other Saffa centre does – run with the ball in two hands. He can bulldoze, he can tackle and he can offload.

Schalk Burger
He is the Incredible ScHULK.

So overall it’s a bit of both in my view. I genuinely don’t see a title coming our way this year, but for the first time in forever I can actually say that I’m pretty pleased with our conference as a whole.

To end this rabble I’ve decided to pick my personal favourite Springbok 23 for the World Cup as it stands, and of course taking Meyer’s tendencies into account.

1. Tendai Mtawarira (186cm, 116kg)
2. Bismarck du Plessis (189cm, 114kg)
3. Francois Malherbe (191cm, 124kg)
4. Eben Etzebeth (204cm, 117kg)
5. Flip van der Merwe (198cm, 126kg)
6. Francois Louw (191cm, 114kg)
7. Schalk Burger (193cm, 114kg)
8. Duane Vermeulen (193cm, 116kg)

9. Cobus Reinach (175cm, 80kg)
10. Handre Pollard (189cm, 97kg)
11. Bryan Habana (180cm, 94kg)
12. Damian de Allende (189cm, 101kg)
13. Jan Serfontein (187cm, 98kg)
14. Willie le Roux (185cm, 90kg)
15. Jesse Kriel (188cm, 95kg)

16. Coenie Oosthuizen (187cm, 129kg)
17. Marcell van der Merwe (186cm, 126kg)
18. Adriaan Strauss (185cm, 111kg)
19. Ruan Botha (206cm, 120kg)
20. Marcell Coetzee (191cm, 110kg)
21. Francois Hougaard (180cm, 90kg)
22. Patrick Lambie (177cm, 87kg)
23. Francois Steyn (191cm, 106kg)