Super Rugby Expert tipping: Round 11

There’s no nice way of putting this: we were rubbish last week – again! I’m beginning to think there are performance-prohibiting substances in play. It can’t possibly be anything else.

Unless your name is Patrick Effeney, of course, who after a healthy dose of luck took to gloating via text message since late Saturday afternoon.

Fair enough, I suppose…

The big Round 11 questions: Can a leader hold top spot for more than a week? Could Dave Rennie himself play 10 for the Chiefs and they’d still win? Have the Highlanders tempted fate resting their All Blacks? Surely the Crusaders couldn’t lose a third straight home game?

Could the weather play into the Rebels’ hands again a second time? Who wins out of the Lions’ lack of attack and the Cheetahs’ lack of defence?

And what of the Reds – has the run to the finals started in earnest?

Paddy Effeney
Tips: Chiefs (powerplay), Highlanders, Crusaders, Waratahs, Lions, Stormers, Hurricanes

“I will confess that I sent a gloating text message to Brett on Saturday afternoon after the ‘Tahs trumped the ‘Canes. Who wouldn’t? It’s bloody Brett after all.

“Back on top now where I belong, and it’s time for a solid round of tipping.

“The Chiefs have the Force well covered in Hamilton, so much so that they get my powerplay. I’m not confident at all about the Brumbies with their key personnel still missing; the Highlanders will win.

“The Crusaders and Waratahs pick themselves, as do the Lions. The Stormers vs Bulls should be the game of the round, so I’ll flip a coin. Stormers!

“The Canes will be salty after losing at home to the Waratahs, and I expect them to put the Reds to the sword, as sad as that is to say.

“Enjoy the dust, Brett.”

(Brett’s note: Enjoy the away teams when your tips disappear next week, Captain Over-Aggressive!)

Elisha Pearce
Tips: Chiefs, Brumbies, Crusaders, Waratahs (PP), Lions, Stormers, Hurricanes

“The Chiefs will handle the Force in Hamilton, but it might be closer than people think. The Force are due an ‘underdog stands up’ type game. The Highlanders deciding to rest three All Blacks against the injury-riddled Brumbies makes this pick tougher: I’ll stick with the home side.

“Take the Crusaders to bounce back against the Blues, who will run them close. The Waratahs to handle the Rebels while hopefully taking good care of my powerplay. They should be able to score a few too many for the Rebels to chase.

“The Lions haven’t lost since March 14! Take them against the Cheetahs. The Reds come back from South Africa to play the Hurricanes at home, but it should be a Canes win.

“Bulls v Stormers could be the game of the week. I’m going to go with my intuition that the Stormers are actually the best South Africa conference side.”

Spiro Zavos
Tips: Chiefs (PP), Highlanders, Crusaders, Waratahs, Lions, Stormers, Hurricanes

“Except for Patrick, it seems that picking winners has got harder and harder where form and history seems to be irrelevant in some matches. I think we discovered, though, that the idea that any team can beat any other team, on their day, is very relevant.

“We also discovered, with the Waratahs winning away against the Hurricanes, that the Waratahs, on their day, are a potential trophy-winning side for a second time. That ‘potential’ qualifier marks a certain discretion after all the upsets this year.”

Diggercane
Tips: Chiefs (PP), Highlanders, Crusaders, Waratahs, Lions, Stormers, Hurricanes

“A particularly disappointing round, especially after embarking on a touch of sledging with the ‘Effeney Storm’ left me a little worse for wear. Mental note: leave the sledging to the Aussies. *Ducks for cover*

“However, the forecast is for bright blues skies and I am sure the ‘Effeney Storm’ will run out of puff soon enough.

“To start with, the Aaron Cruden-less Chiefs to continue their run over the Force and can have my powerplay. And due to the Brumbies giving my powerplay away last week, I have to pick the Highlanders out of pure spite for their carelessness.

“I am still going to pick the Crusaders to pick their socks up (this will be the week I am sure!) over the Blues, while I expect the Waratahs to continue their momentum over the Rebels.

“I just love the way the Lions play and have to back them against the injury hit Cheetahs, while I cannot back against the Stormers at Newlands, Handre Pollard or no.

“And I expect, no, damn it, I demand the Hurricanes consign their ‘surprise’ defeat to the Waratahs firmly in the rear view mirror and leave the Reds with one in a row.”

Brett McKay
Tips: Chiefs, Brumbies, Blues, Waratahs, Lions, Stormers, Hurricanes (PP)

This tipping business is really beginning to suck. And that was before the Effeney text barrage began (the ‘Effening’ barrage, even!) on Saturday afternoon.

Two big gambles this week: the Highlanders with their All Blacks would’ve been a must-tip, but without them, the Brumbies with Tevita Kuridrani and Jesse Mogg returning even this one up again. And home teams win more 50-50 games than they lose.

The other is that I’ve not been able to shake this nagging feeling about another Crusaders loss, only fuelled by the retention of Dan Carter at 12 and Tom Taylor at 15. They didn’t look particularly convincing last weekend, and the Blues have nothing to lose.

And while I don’t particularly like leaving the powerplay to the end, I do like making Digger sweat…

The summary

Bye: Sharks