The Run Home: South African Conference

By KiwiDave / Roar Guru

The South African conference has been dominated by three teams this season but it has not been the usual Bulls, Stormers and Sharks.

The Sharks have fallen away this year and the Lions, on the back of five wins in a row, have surged into prominence. The Cheetahs have been woeful and should battle out last spot with the equally disappointing Sharks.

Leading the South African conference are the Stormers with 30 points. They are back to their best, winning games with their brutal defence and discipline. They are not the flashiest team to watch but they know how to ground out a win.

With the Rebels, Brumbies, Cheetahs and Lions at home and the Cheetahs and Sharks away they have a nice run home and should notch at least four wins, which will be good enough to wrap up the South African conference. On form they will probably start favourite in every game and could potentially win them all and challenge for top spot.

Keeping them honest on 29 points are the Bulls, but they have yet to leave South Africa. They have a couple of home games against the Lions and Cheetahs which they would like their chances in, but with away games to the Blues, Chiefs, Brumbies and Rebels they will probably need to win two or three of them to win the South African conference or secure a top six spot.

They have looked better of recent times after an erratic start to the season but they will need to keep things rolling.

The Lions, on 26 points, sit just one win off top spot in the conference. A win over the Bulls and a loss to the Stormers could even see them top the conference this week, which would be remarkable given where they were six weeks ago. They are a team with form and self belief, which are a potent combination. They have a very tough run home and will definitely shape the top six.

At home they play the Highlanders, Brumbies and Waratahs while away they play the Bulls, Cheetahs and Stormers. They will probably need to win four of these to make the finals but given every game is in South Africa and they are on a five-game winning streak, they cannot be ruled out.

Sitting in fourth spot is the Sharks on 21 points. They have looked very ordinary this season, copping a few beltings and scrapping home with some lucky wins. They are seven points outside the top six and with their tour just beginning and games against the Highlanders, Hurricanes, Waratahs and Reds their season should be done and dusted in three weeks’ time.

They finish the season with home games to the Rebels and Stormers but by that stage they will only be playing for pride.

In last spot in the South African conference on 16 points are the Cheetahs. They have looked OK on attack but they have woeful defence which has seen them concede 30 points a game.

They finish off their season in South Africa with home games to the Stormers, Highlanders, Lions and Waratahs with the Bulls and Stormers away which is a positive for them. With a few upsets in their home games, they could shape the top six but they look too far off the pack to be in contention of a top six spot.

This conference looks like it’s the Stormers’ to lose. They already have the top spot and they have finished their tour matches. They look the pick of the South African teams. Should the Bulls have a strong tour they could threaten and the Lions have been finding a way to win and can’t be ruled out of contention.

It’s definitely the most open of the conferences, but the Sharks and Cheetahs are not going well enough to threaten.

The Crowd Says:

2015-04-29T18:43:54+00:00

Harry Jones

Expert


Good point. I'm not a fan of Morne Steyn getting anywhere near a Bok jersey again, but jeez, there was a man who understood his limits and was incredibly non-injury-prone.

2015-04-29T15:44:33+00:00

RobC

Roar Guru


Foley is like a '2nd scrum half' Works perfectly for Cheik-ball's up-tempo. Beale is his creator. QC is a backline general. Also sets expectations with his pack. Good vision and read of situation. Excellent team articulator. But injure prone. Seems he doesnt have a balanced understanding of his physical capability

2015-04-29T15:38:16+00:00

RobC

Roar Guru


thought it was a brave call :lol:

2015-04-29T15:16:34+00:00

Harry Jones

Expert


I'm a big fan of QC (his rugby, that is). I think he got rid of some of his flaws pre-2013. I'd go with him over Foley in QF and SF, at least. Foley hasn't really taken a game against NZ or SA by the scruff of the neck and dominated at 10. QC can do that at times (he can also throw passes that nobody wants or needs!)

2015-04-29T15:00:53+00:00

Rugby Tragic

Guest


Fence sitter!

2015-04-28T22:35:09+00:00

Lostintokyo

Guest


Harry, THP such a critical position, particularly in England. Wish Wallabies had as much depth as the Boks. Legends of Matfield, de Villiers and du Preez, will the old knees hold out? I like the look of Pollard, 5/8 another key position this World Cup. Blacks and Wallabies have to get this position right too. Cruden injury a headache for the Kiwis. Is Folley up to it? Will Cooper come back from the dead? And what role will injuries play to all sides from here? Things may look different in five months.

2015-04-28T22:29:27+00:00

Michael

Guest


He's certainly a man of many talents! He can also cover at 13 where the Springboks seem to be lacking.

2015-04-28T20:16:05+00:00

Harry Jones

Expert


I like it. He can play wing or centre, too. More like a NZ back--versatile.

2015-04-28T20:15:08+00:00

Harry Jones

Expert


Stormers are going to rest Kitshoff and Etzebeth this week. Eben has played 5 straight and has been doing the full 80:00. Kebble and Vermaak to be LHPs.

2015-04-28T15:42:33+00:00

Michael

Guest


With Jesse Kriel coming off the bench to add some more X-factor late in the game.

2015-04-28T13:15:28+00:00

Harry Jones

Expert


Lostintokyo, the guru behind the Stormers defence was hired by Meyer (in fact, his loss was one of the reasons for the Stormer's defensive struggles for a bit). I agree that if Meyer gets his selection right, particularly on the bench eight, we should be hard to knock out of the World Cup. Of particular interest is our props: much better depth now that Oosthuizen has learned to be a THP, Malherbe, Koch, and Marcel vd Merwe look good at THP, too. No need for Jannie to miss 5 tackles in 50 minutes, just to earn one or two scrum penalties. Malherbe can win you those same penalties, but also tackle; and Oosthuizen is a very good ball carrier. On the LHP side, Beast-Nyakane-Kitshoff a very good depth chart. All of them tackle and carry, too. Loose forwards are abundant. Our big question marks are at 5 and 13. Matfield is penciled in at 5, but his knees are fragile. Damian de Allende is the best 12 we have in SA, so I suppose Jean de Villiers, if he returns, will go to 13. Personally, I can't see him playing test rugby this year; so I'd have an all-Stormer midfield (de Allende and de Jongh) playing outside a Bull halfback combo (Pollard and du Preez), with a lethal back three of le Roux-Habana-Hougaard.

2015-04-28T12:59:51+00:00

Lostintokyo

Guest


If the Boks can replicate the Stormers defensive line they will be hard to beat this year. With key Boks being rested, young forwards with potential to be greats and flair out wide, looks like a good international season ahead. Life at the top of rugby is not getting any easier. Which team has the cream to rise to the top end October? World Cup will be a ripper!

2015-04-28T10:27:26+00:00

RobC

Roar Guru


Thanks for the article KiwiDave. TImely. Not sure Stormers is likely to lose to the Cheetahs this weekend though.

2015-04-28T10:18:15+00:00

RobC

Roar Guru


A draw

AUTHOR

2015-04-28T00:38:46+00:00

KiwiDave

Roar Guru


Lions roll the Bulls this week and the Stormers lose they are one point from leading the conference and they have done their Aus/NZ tour as well. Draw wise the Stormers should win out but have seen a few leaders in this conference capitulate in the final rounds before.

2015-04-28T00:24:29+00:00

Tim Reynolds

Roar Pro


Not sure about "the most open conference". The Stormers have got it all but wrapped up, with their only realistic opposition the Bulls looking pretty ordinary and yet to tour Australasia. Whereas in NZ the Hurricanes and the Chiefs have a monumental battle on their hands, including playing each other twice, and the Highlanders and Crusaders yapping at their heels. Even the Aussies have two teams which could realistically win the conference.

AUTHOR

2015-04-27T23:29:00+00:00

KiwiDave

Roar Guru


I think the venue will decide this. Bulls at home but I am not overly impressed by them. Its the predictable kick and chase crap they are playing again. When they open up they actually look very good but a poorly coached side lacking imagination. Fortunately they have Pollard who can whack them over from almost 60 out with great accuracy

AUTHOR

2015-04-27T23:26:25+00:00

KiwiDave

Roar Guru


That trio are beasts. Vermeullen was fantastic against the Bulls.

2015-04-27T22:00:41+00:00

Digby

Roar Guru


Have to back the Bulls I think, would love to see the Lions do it though.

2015-04-27T18:49:42+00:00

Harry Jones

Expert


Bulls by 3.

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