The Australian conference is once again dominated by two sides, the Brumbies and the Waratahs, while the Rebels have shown improvement and the Force have taken a huge step backwards.
The Reds remain a woeful shadow of the Ewen McKenzie coached sides of a few years back and would be arguably the worst side in the Super Rugby.
Leading the way are the Brumbies on 31 points. They are a side that have run hot and cold at times this season. They hold a slender lead over the Waratahs, who have a game in hand, and also they have yet to venture to South Africa. Close losses to the Chiefs and Blues in New Zealand mean they are zero from two abroad this year and they have the Stormers and Lions away which should provide a decent challenge.
Before that they have to overcome the Waratahs at home. A win there will give them a nice little buffer but a loss will likely see the Waratahs leapfrog them. It could well be the game that decides the conference winner this far out.
With the Waratahs, Crusaders and Bulls at home and the Force, Lions and Stormers away they have a tough run home and none of them look easy. The key game though should be the Waratahs and a loss there could see them struggle to stay in the top six.
Camped just outside the top six on 27 points are the Waratahs. They have had an up and down season with shock losses to the Force and Stormers at home and they were belted by the Highlanders away. A win over the Hurricanes seemed to get them back on track but with their run home they will need to get their consistency back.
They play a crucial game against the Brumbies this week in Canberra which could well decide the Australian conference. A loss will see them slip seven or eight points behind the Brumbies, although they do have a game in hand over them.
They play the Sharks, Reds and Crusaders at home and the Lions, Cheetahs, Force and Brumbies away. Only one of those sides are in the top six and it is an easier run home than the Brumbies. They should make the top six but if they throw in a few shockers like they have this season then life could get harder.
Having their best season yet sits the Rebels on 20 points. They are a real rough prospect for a top six spot and they are a much improved outfit, especially on the defensive front and in their brilliant scrimmage work.
Like the Waratahs they also have seven matches left. They have the Chiefs, Blues, Force and Bulls at home and the Reds, Stormers and Sharks away. Aside from the Chiefs and Stormers, it’s a nice run home and if they could sneak a win over the Chiefs this week and the Waratahs get up then they will be right in the mix for taking the Australian conference.
The Reds are next on 11 points. They have looked woeful this year, conceding the second most points and scoring the least. They average 13 points a game while conceding 26. They only escaped last spot due to a missed kick in the final minute by the Cheetahs.
They play the Rebels, Sharks and Chiefs at home and the Waratahs, Crusaders and Force away. They will be lucky to pick up a win in any of these contests, with the Sharks at home or Force away their best chance. They are looking a strong prospect for the wooden spoon.
The Force sit last on the table. After the opening round and their demolition of the Waratahs in Sydney I doubt even the biggest sceptic would have foreseen them being in last spot but that shock Round 1 victory remains their only win of a very ordinary campaign.
They have been showing a lot more spirit of late, pushing the Chiefs and Stormers close, and a win looks like it’s just around the corner. They have the Brumbies, Reds, Highlanders and Waratahs at home and the Rebels and Blues away. At the very least they should roll the Reds but they might snag an upset or two at home still.
The usual prospects dominate this conference and provided the Brumbies and Waratahs can go through their South Africa tours without too much damage they look like top six prospects. The conference winner is too close to call, although a much clearer picture should emerge after this week. The Rebels are a rough chance should these two falter given the relatively easier draw they have.
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Die Hard, I don't think if the Tahs top their conference that their QF will be between Cane's or the Chiefs, who I think will finish 1 and 4. They will play 6th qualifier, likely to be Highlanders or Bulls. 4 and 5 will play the other QF in the 1st week of playoffs.
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Hey, hey, no making fun of the Blues..... that is taboo! LOL
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Hey Taylorman .. I was discussing goal kicking with a couple of mates a few days ago and for the life of me, we could not remember the name of the burly Prop who used to be the teams goal kicker .. used to play for Otahuhu and Auckland and was a toe kicker,, do you recall? Not talking about the Matt Dunnings, this guy was the first choice goal kicker and a prop like, as I understand it Okey Geffin for the Boks (before my time of following rugby). There wre 3 of us discussing goal kickers in NZ and we all remember the guy but we couldn't come up with his name... can you help?
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Yep unfortunately I will miss it. Just arrived in Singapore tonight and returning Friday night. Hang on they might ... just might, have it on in the Qantas Club! .. I will check so if it is I will check in early and watch it there with a cold one! ... You'd love it there Harry, especially Singapore where apart from buffet, they actually have chefs cooking from a menu as well (restricted of course) - but fair enough its free as is the booze.
Harry Jones
Expert
And they get the Blues.
Not Bothered
Guest
Yeah, ditch the Reds for the ultra successfull Force. Theyve won how many games this year? The Reds have 2 starting Wallabies, 1 being Simmons who has pretty limited comp for the 4 jumper. So exactly what amazing line up are you talking about? Maybe JOC will make it back into the starting line up but he might want to start playing better. The Brumbies have a much stronger team, the Tahs have a much stronger team. I think that might be your problem, you cant see that other teams are better. Sure the Reds should be doing better but I doubt its all down to Graham.
Not Bothered
Guest
The run home? Everytime the Ausies and Saffers play a Kiwi team and get smashed they 'run home' afterwards.
Brisbane boys
Guest
Yogi it is hard to argue with your logic I was at the canes game and the lack of clear vision on how to play to the canes weak points was the most disappointing
jameswm
Guest
Yeah I saw the Highlanders game. The Tahs nearly scored at the end to tie it up. The Tahs were also on top early then lost concentration. The same applied to that game. Perfect example.
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
The way the finals are structured it could well be Hurricanes Chiefs in one semi and Waratahs Stormers in other
Jake
Guest
They weren't too flash against the Stormers. We will disregard last weeks game against the Rebels because it was raining It all depends if Cheika has dropped some angry pills into their water bottles before the game.
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
You obviously didn't catch the Highlanders game. Scoreboard flattered them that day. Highlanders were a 20 point better side that day
jameswm
Guest
Nah I don't think the Tahs have looked average at any stage, apart from possibly their first game. They've looked messy and out of sync at times, but their physicality, breakdown work, scrumming etc have been consistent. It is possible that the Tahs forwards will belt the Brums out of the game.
Die hard
Roar Rookie
Even if the Tahs lose this weekend I favor them to win the Aussie conference. Their run home is just that much easier. Their last game against the poor old Reds. But what will it really mean? A semi at home against the Chiefs Canes or Highlanders or Crusaders most likely. And I don't really think they are looking up for it this year. Even if they win that somehow then they will definitely have to travel to the final because the points the end up with won't put them near first or second.
Joe
Guest
Have to agree Paul. Both teams have looked pretty average at times this year and home ground advantage may give the Brumbies the edge.
Yogi
Guest
2006-2015 hasn't been all good weather.
PeterK
Roar Guru
good weather fan
PeterK
Roar Guru
and when they smashed the brumbies in sydney
dsat24
Guest
Agreed, thats quality right there HJ, TM and RB
Yogi
Guest
KiwiDave your opinion of the reds comes across pretty strongly. But my only disagreement with you is where in the bottom 5 of the table they deserve to be. With regard to the Wayne Smith story-this is really upsetting. In 2013 the QRU hired a coach with a poor track record who was well connected in Qld rugby circles but not respected by players and coaches that he has worked with in the past. 2014 and 2015 - can anyone remember a team achieving so little with such a quality list of players (ok excepting Auckland). If the QRU resign Graham for 2 years that will be it for me. After being a member since the dark days when the reds came bottom 3 every year and were only worth watching to see Chris Latham, I will not sign up next year unless we have a new coach. I will have to make choice between supporting the Force or the Rebels.