Well everyone, we’ve made it. The A-League season has come to a close after an incredible 27 weeks of football.
We now look excitedly towards the next chapter of our season, the much anticipated finals series which will have intensity and atmospheres as we’ve never seen before.
The Victory may have lifted the Premier’s Plate last weekend, but nothing is for certain as to who will be lifting the championship in season 2014-15. The first phase of finals are the two elimination final matches which are ultimately do or die games for the players and clubs.
So here are the previews for this week’s action.
Adelaide United versus Brisbane Roar
After snapping themselves back into form by ending a two-game losing streak, Adelaide United conveyed last week to their rivals that they mean business heading into the finals. The Reds demolished Melbourne City in a match that has surely marked the return of the dominance that saw Adelaide win the FFA Cup and terrorise the league earlier in the season.
However, Friday will see the tempo increased to a whole new level, as the Reds host bogey side Brisbane Roar at the Adelaide Oval. The Roar have not lost to the Reds in Adelaide in seven meetings there, defeating Adelaide most recently two weeks ago, claiming the South Australian city as a home away from home.
As part of the early mind game battles, Adelaide coach Josep Gombau claimed that the Adelaide Oval is a neutral venue and that he would prefer his team play in front of their beloved fans at Hindmarsh.
Brisbane may not have had the flashiest of seasons, but if there’s one thing that the Roar know a thing or two about is how to win a championship. They will not be looking to let anyone get in their way this year. The Roar defeated the Jets 2-1 last week, their second victory of the week after defeating Beijing Guoan away.
Where the match will be won
This match will be won in an area that has proven to be a strong point for both these sides, the midfield. With great midfield battles left, right and centre, it will be crucial for both team’s midfielders to get on top of their opposition and feed the men up front.
In a match that will see the likes of Thomas Broich, Luke Brattan and Steve Lustica go head to head with Marcelo Carrusca, Isaias and Pablo Sanchez, this is a classic contest not to be missed.
This match in particular will be a battle for possession, as both teams can lay claim to being the two best possession-based sides in the league this season. Adelaide and Brisbane have mastered the art of keeping the ball, respectively averaging 59.02 per cent and 54.20 per cent.
Who to keep an eye on
Adelaide will be greatly buoyed by the much anticipated return of Carrusca who will be very eager to step onto the park and make his return in midfield. The return of Carrusca, however, will also mean that Sergio Cirio will most likely be moved back into his favoured position on the wing after having to cover for Carrusca in midfield during his been absent.
Cirio has proved to be a dominant force up front scoring seven goals and providing eight assists, establishing himself as one of the most dangerous wingers in the league.
The Argentine will have eyes on the prize when he steps out onto the field as he will be determined to do whatever he can to get his side over the line.
Who’s going to win?
In what should be a tight and thrilling contest with both teams having attacking mindsets, I believe Adelaide will get over the line, continuing on their impressive result last week.
Stopping Adelaide’s run down the wings will be a difficult task for the Roar, one that the Reds will hope will get them over the line. The winner of this match will face Sydney FC.
Prediction: Adelaide 2-0
Wellington Phoenix versus Melbourne City
We now shift our focus to Sunday’s clash, where the surprise package of the season, the Wellington Phoenix, host Melbourne City in the fourth versus fifth elimination final.
Two sides that missed the finals last season go head to head in New Zealand with both teams determined to book a semi-finals birth. The Phoenix has risen in 2014-15, after finishing ninth last season, Ernie Merrick turning things around for the Yellow Army.
It took a while for Melbourne City to get their season rolling in season ten of the A-League, being winless in their first four matches. However revival periods in December and in March saw the Melbournians back on track as they headed towards the finals. Despite coming off a two-match losing streak, City will not let that phase them as they travel to Wellington.
City have only ever beaten the Phoenix once in 11 meetings at Westpac Stadium, dating back to last season where City humiliated the Phoenix 0-5.
Where the match will be won
In a contest that will surely be tight, it will be vital that both teams make the most out of their opportunities going forward. Melbourne City on average has 15 shots per game – the most in the league. However, this is with poor conversion having only scored 36 goals this season, the lowest in the top six.
In what will be another attacking match, both teams will look to utilise their central players in Aaron Mooy and Roly Bonevacia. If given too much space playing behind the strikers, these two players will be determined to make the most of their opportunities and must be shut down to prevent them from making any chances.
Both these players led the assists charge at their clubs, so their teammates will be relying on these two stars to provide the killer ball to the strikers.
Who to look out for
The spotlight on Sunday’s match will be heavily focused upon Nathan Burns. The Socceroos utility scooped up three awards at the Phoenix awards night, winning the club’s Golden Boot, Players’ Player of the Year and overall Player of the Year. Burns will no doubt be heavily marked, which will allow players like Roy Krishna to have a bit more freedom up front.
Krishna has enjoyed a breakout season scoring nine goals and providing three assists. The Fijian took home the prize for Goal of the Year for season 2014-15 and will be determined to show off his goalscoring abilities further, when he plays in his first ever A-League final.
Who’s going to win?
This match will surely be a thrilling contest, with two out of the three meetings between the two sides this season being 0-0 draws. However, there can only be one winner and on this Sunday afternoon clash the Phoenix will come out on top, but only just as City will push them right to the death. The winner of this match will face the Victory.
Prediction: Phoenix 2-1
Well, there you have it folks, only time will tell of what will become of the first week of the finals. The winners of these matches will go off to the semi-finals where the Victory and Sydney FC will be waiting for them.
Batou
Guest
Thanks Jeff. That is what I thought
Bfc
Guest
Don't have an strong opinion one way or the other...but sometimes the top team(s) accumulate wins/points as a consequence of the gap in performances...ie the top team(s) are playing well while the bottom teams struggle, yielding points regularly. That seemed to happen quite a bit this season... MVFC deserved Premiers, but SFC/Nix could also have won the 'plate'. Now the Finals are a slightly different matter...in knockout footy, one only has to win 'that' game...
Waz
Guest
Fuss - that just plane wrong! If a side were to get 51 points in a season by winning their first 17 games and losing the remaining ten would not be consistent over the season - you could describe Perths season as inconsistent winning all but 4 of their first 14 then not winning for 8 games.
Ian
Guest
Ok, Fussball, so you have decided one win less is not the difference between consistent and inconsistent (not disagreeing) - at some point the difference in points is the difference between consistent and inconsistent. because there is always a line somewhere and that gets back to opinion. The facts say MV had less losses in comparison to last season - as did a couple of other teams, but they had a lot more draws and less wins than Brisbane last year. So you are only counting the losses as the comparison. In some opinions the larger amount of draws - in comparison to Brisbane last year may be considered being inconsistent as a draw is 'not winning'. Brisbane had 4 draws whilst MV, Perth and SFC all had 8 draws. Opinion does come into how people read data. Statistics can be used this way. it is also a fact as I've mentioned the bottom 3 teams acquired many less points than the teams last year. They were consistently not winning (not having a dig at those teams as Brisbane is a bit better along with City). Your MV fellow fan Paul referred to again Brisbane being head and shoulders above - this is because Brisbane finished 10 points clear and is a reference to the table position of leading for 25 weeks. MV were consistent this season - Brisbane was inconsistent. The only difference is the combination of wins draws and losses to get there - and the comparison with other teams on the table.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
One approach might be to split the season into 9 segments of 3 matches. To consistently win 70% of the points on offer, you'd expect teams to be averaging 6.3 points per block of 3 games. You can then do a standard deviation calculation with 6.3 per block of three being treated as the mean. You could then conclude that a team with a lower standard deviation would be more consistent than a team with a greater standard deviation. My gut feel is that that roar team sitting at the top of your ladder would have had a lower standard deviation than the Victory team from 2007 (that's just a guess, I'm far too lazy to actually work it out).
Waz
Guest
My point was simply going in to the finals not many of the six have consistency! The bottom 4 need to be consistent (or lucky) over three games the top two over the two games. The form over the season is relevant and tells us something (the table position basically) but form in the first ten rounds is less relevant than the form carried into knockout finals football. Do City have consistency - yes or no? roar? nix? Adelaide? I'd say not; Sydney? Yes away from home, no at home! MV??
AZ_RBB
Guest
My definition of dominant is occupying a commanding position. In sports a commanding position is defined by having a significant distance between you and your opponent or closest opponent. Brisbane's points lead during parts of last season most certainly meets that criteria. Consistency is exactly as you have described it. It is defined by the number of wins and points you accumulate. Particularly consecutive wins or undefeated streaks.
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
@MF So, what is a suitable metric to use to rate a team's season as "consistent"? We need a robust definition that can be applied objectively across any sporting league. Not some subjective "gut feeling" that varies from person to person. Provide me with an alternative to the Points during the season & I'll happily evaluate your hypothesis. PS: Using 26 match season: a) Team A: wins every home game & loses every away game = 39 pts b) Team B: wins 20 matches to start the season & loses final 6 matches = 60 pts ... Is it your premise that Team A is more "consistent" because they won every 2nd week at home & consistently lost every away match?
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
If Brisbane were so dominant last season why did they not accumulate more points than MVFC this season? Having watched all the Aleague seasons, subjectively I'd rate 3 teams stood out as dominant: BRI 2011, MVFC 2007 & WSW 2013. And, interestingly, those 3 teams all acquired 70% or more points in the season. I'd be willing to use 70% as the benchmark to mark a team as being "dominant". What's a suitable benchmark points for "consistent"? Well that's up for debate.
Mister Football
Roar Guru
Is consistency best measured by the quantum of points as at the end of the season? One could argue that is only the case if the points are earned throughout the season, ahem, consistently. What do I mean? Well, the Victory in 2006-07 is an excellent example of what I mean. Let us remind ourselves that it was a 21 game season back then. The victory jumped everyone by winning the first 7 games of the season, thereafter, they cam back to the pack a bit and had a mixture of wins, draws and losses. Towards the end of the season, they appeared to lose a bit of form, actually suffering a 4-0 loss away to the Jets. They struggled to a nil-all draw in the first week of the finals away to Adelaide, and in the return leg , struggled to get past Adelaide, saved at the death knell by an unlikely hero in James Robinson, scoring his one and only goal in what would be his very last game for the Victory. Was that the epitome of consistency? Many would argue otherwise.
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
@Paul "last season Brisbane were head and shoulders above the pack" Yes they were. Yet, despite being head & shoulders above the pack, Brisbane acquired 1 less point last season than MVFC this season. This is not my opinion. It is a fact. Now if you think Brisbane with 52 points in a season = consistent, then common sense requires us to conclude ANY team with 49 points or above is as consistent as Brisbane were last season (49pts is just 1 less win than Brisbane & I don't think 1 less win is significant to move a team from “consistent” to “inconsistent”). Again, the points are the only factual data we have about 'consistency'. Everything else is subjective. Using FACTS, the Brisbane team of 2011 & WSW team of 2013 were significantly more consistent than MV in 2015 or BRI in 2014.
Paul
Guest
Fuss, I'm a Victory supporter but last season Brisbane were head and shoulders above the pack - something that cannot be claimed by MV this season. I felt that we were quite inconsistent, coughing up matches whenever top spot was on the line (a la Wellington, Perth and Newcastle at AAMI Park), and at times failed to shut the gate on inferior opposition.
Waz
Guest
Fair point on comparison and like some of the stats youve produced by the way; my comparison was not to each season, as that would be a different discussion, but comparing teams to each other. If I do extend that comparison to last season clearly Roar were more consistent than the chasing pack last year but even then we only just squeezed through to win the GF; this season I don't see anything that suggests consistency in any side with the best being MV - Sydney are second and their best chance of being crowned champions is not to play a home GF and their biggest barrier to reaching the final is having to play at home in the semi. I think you're reading too much into my inconsistency statement to be honest
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
Bob & Waz Consistency is a term that requires comparison. I've provided my methodology for forming the opinion that MV this season were as consistent, or as inconsistent, as Brisbane last season. Why Brisbane? Because they won the Premiership last season & I didn't recall anyone saying "Brisbane weren't consistent". If Brisbane achieved less points than MV this season, but they were not considered "inconsistent" then there is serious flaws (or bias) in any analysis that suggest MV were inconsistent this season. You can't have it both ways. If MV were "inconsistent" this season, the FACTS tell us BRI last season achieved 1 point less than MV this season.
Waz
Guest
I didn't think I was comparing previous seasons, if I inferred that I didn't mean to make it the central point. What I meant on inconsistency was Perth running away with it then going ten games with one win, Sydney couldn't buy a goal at one point and then you couldn't stop them scoring (and how long has it been since Janko scored now), Nix Adelaide all had chances to go top and extend leads but fluffed it up; at one point no one wanted top spot it seemed, Victory didn't lose much but they were drawing plenty at one stage - this may be normal it just seems to me going into the finals no one, with perhaps the exception of your MV, can truly be happy with their form therefore it makes it less predictable eg the consensus is no one out of the top two wins the GF but form going into the finals suggests MV will make it through but then could face anyone if the other 5 sides
Jeff Williamson
Roar Pro
The draw for the semi-finals on the follwing week are: Melbourne Victory v Lowest Ranked Week 1 Winner Sydney FC v Highest Ranked Week 1 Winner
Bob
Guest
Fuss - I didn't see Was making a comparison to last season that's something you introduced to the arguement, but why when this was about the top 6 this season surely? And the opinion expressed by Was mirrors the Fox sports pundits as well so his is not unique! If there is a comparison to last year then use all the stats eg Roar won more games last season than anyone did this year and Victory drew the same amount of games in this one season as Roar have in the previous two seasons - go figure what that means? I read the statement and agreed with it to be honest - the inconsistency this season may be due to tougher competition within the top five but it still is inconsistent. And the point being made was surely if that inconsistency continues could it be anyone's game this year??? That point seems relevant to who might be crowned 2015 champions where as a comparison to last season hardly seems relevant to figuring out who will win this weekend and ultimately the Grand Final don't you think? (Just my opinion, don't hate me too !!!!!)
Fussball ist unser leben
Roar Guru
I have not insulted you once; the martyr syndrome doesn't suit you. Let's approach this from a different angle. What criteria are you using to decide whether a team was "consistent" or "inconsistent" this season & previous seasons. If you provide your criteria, you will convince me that what you say is accurate. My criteria for consistency is simple: How many points did the top teams achieve as a % of the total points available. Using this OBJECTIVE methodology this is how consistency has ranked for Aleague Premiers. 1 BRI (2011): 72% 2 MVC (2007): 71% 3 WSW (2013): 70% 4 ADL (2006): 68% 5 MVC (2015): 65% 6 BRI (2014); 64% 7 CCM (2012): 63% 8 MVC (2009): 60% 9 SYD (2010): 59% 10 CCM (2008): 54%
Batou
Guest
Athos, when you say that the winner of game 1 goes on to play Sydney fc and game 2 to play victree, that is only correct of the results go the way you predict right? My understanding is that if Brisbane were to win then as the lowest finishing team left they would play mv with the winner of the other game playing Sydney. Let me know if I've got that wrong though. Having said that, I do agree with your predictions. It's hard to see city winning and Brisbane may have been a decent chance if it wasn't for their severely depleted line up but as it is it's hard to see them getting past Adelaide.
Waz
Guest
It's my opinion and feel free to disagree (but keep personal insults in Melbourne mate) - it is also a view shared by independent media commentators not just "disgruntled WSW/Roar fans" as you suggest - no one side had the consistency to take the premiers plate and it was described as a "curse" at one point as no one would get to the top and stay there. If it helps MVFC had their wobble moments but deservedly ended up top but I challenge you to tell me Perth, Nix, Adelaide, and the Smurfs were consistent!!