In 11 of the past 12 AFL seasons, at least six of the teams in the top eight after Round 4 made the finals.
While I don’t believe that GWS and Collingwood will be playing off in a qualifying final this year, as would be the case if the season ended today, this suggests that four weeks is a solid albeit hardly definitive sample size.
So let’s see where every team stands in the AFL hierarchy after the first month.
You might want to give this article a miss, Queenslanders.
Northern Nothingness
18. Gold Coast
17. Brisbane
The real tragedy of Round 5 is that one of these teams will emerge from it with premiership points (a 37-37 draw in Saturday’s Q-Clash seems the fairest, most fitting result).
Brisbane has a terrible list and has dealt with injuries that have unmasked a frightening lack of depth. Their awfulness is explainable. Gold Coast’s is not.
The Suns are the worst team in the competition right now. None of their players can hit a stationary target 20 metres away and Nick Malceski, a premiership player, would start on the bench for most VFL teams on his current form.
Gold Coast ranks last in the league for effective disposal percentage and tops the competition in ‘acts of cowardly indifference’.
At least it’s warm up there.
Planned ineptitude
16. St Kilda
After a competitive loss to GWS in Round 1 and the startling annihilation of the Gold Coast in Round 2, for a moment there it looked like St Kilda might be feisty this year.
Then reality set in, with two blowout losses to a pair of teams that aren’t exactly world beaters. And that’s fine. The Saints are exactly where they need to be, bottoming out and blooding youngsters. See you in 2018 St. Kilda.
Purgatory
15. Carlton
14. Richmond
13. West Coast
Carlton’s woes are well documented but Richmond’s only really came to the surface in the post-mortem of their shock loss to the Demons. The average Tiger on the weekend had played 66.5 games, a number lower than GWS, and a good 14 games less than their opponents Melbourne.
Richmond, whether they know it or not, are rebuilding. Which is unfortunate, because they never built to anything in the first place. They’re rebuilding a pile of dirt.
Speaking of which, how about those West Coast Eagles? Don’t be fooled by the competition’s flat track bullies – the Eagles might look like a million bucks when they’re dominating Carlton or Brisbane, but let’s not forget they did concede the first 11 goals of a match just a fortnight ago.
West Coast’s record against finals teams in 2013 and 2014: 0 wins, 20 losses. Talk to me when they beat one good team, just one.
We’re ecstatic to be 12th
12. Melbourne
Paul Roos, in typical light-hearted fashion, made an excellent point on AFL 360 – every time a team loses to Melbourne it’s automatically that team’s worst performance of all time.
What if the Demons are just good this year? And by good, I mean not abominable. The Dees butcher the ball (17th in the competition for effective disposal percentage) and can’t get it forward (last in inside 50s) but they’re perfectly respectable in contested ball (8th in contested possession differential) and clearances (7th).
What they lack in skill they compensate for in desire. Start taking notes Gold Coast. And I’ll take Jesse Hogan over any player on the lists of Carlton, Richmond and West Coast.
The fallen champs
11. Geelong
The 2015 Cats just aren’t any good. We’ve been predicting the end ever since the Cats got pumped by Collingwood in the 2010 preliminary final and now it’s finally here.
Geelong ranks last in contested possession differential and last in clearances. Outside of Selwood their midfield has been a catastrophe. They’re a young, rebuilding side now.
Against North on the weekend they had more unproven players than proven players in their team. The Cats’ run had to end sometime. It was marvellous while it lasted.
One of us is making the finals
10. GWS
9. Collingwood
8. Western Bulldogs
GWS has the most talent, Collingwood is the most proven and the Bulldogs are playing the best right now.
The Dogs have been the best, most inexplicable story in football this year. How are they doing it? They’re second in the league in tackles and fifth in effective disposal percentage.
Intense pressure without the ball and composure with it in hand has proven a winning combination thus far. If they can maintain even a semblance of that balance they’re every chance to make finals because they have the softest draw in the league from here on in.
Seriously, look at it. The Dogs still have two games against Brisbane, two against St Kilda, two against Melbourne, games at home against GWS and Carlton, and a vacation to the Gold Coast.
If they’re good enough they’ll make it.
If things break right, we can finish top four
7. North Melbourne
6. Adelaide
5. Essendon
Each of these teams is a deeply talented, professional, well-structured outfit, and each of them has one inexplicable shock loss on their resume after four weeks.
Essendon’s is the most explainable – as their coach stated and has been commented on ad nauseam, they tried to play dry weather football in slippery and then lagoon-like conditions and were accordingly punished by a Collingwood side that leads the competition in contested ball.
The Dons, as I’ve written about before, will be fine.
While Adelaide’s loss to the Bulldogs this weekend was bizarre, we’ll give them a mulligan considering their first three weeks.
North’s implosion at the Adelaide Oval in Round 1 was more troubling.
For all the lovely aesthetics of their attacking ball movement (and it is lovely, especially with Brent Harvey creating off the back flank, an inspired move), the Kangaroos are still defensively fragile.
In Round 1 and 3 North were powerless to stop their South Australians opponents from scoring, conceding a ridiculous 63 scoring shots in the two games combined. Brad Scott’s boys are also allowing a mammoth 14.2 marks inside 50 per game, third worst in the competition.
The contenders
4. Port Adelaide
3. Sydney
2. Fremantle
Last Saturday night was football at its finest for the viewing audience and football at its most frightening for the rest of the competition. Aesthetically, the gap between Saturday night’s participants and everyone else seems significant.
While a quality team like Essendon or North Melbourne can play with anyone on their day, one gets the sense already that the second last week of September will be featuring the Power, the Swans, the Dockers and the Hawks.
Of that group Fremantle has been the most impressive so far, and it’s not just because we may have to re-write the Bible with Nat Fyfe as its central character.
The Dockers are leading the league in contested possession differential and effective disposal percentage. They’re the hardest team in the competition and the most skilled.
That should be a universal impossibility, or at least really unfair. And yet, as magnificent as the Purple Haze has been…
The favourite
1. Hawthorn
If you had to bet your life on one team to win the flag, who would it be?
I thought so.
jax
Guest
Far too simplistic appraisal of WC Jay. They've had massive injuries for the 3 year period you quoted. They were close to knocking off Port and Freo last year. They didn't turn up to play against Freo. Let's see how they go this week against Port, I hope Kennedy is fit and plays. Mark my words, their list is far deeper and better than most believe it to be but it will take some time for people like you to see it. I'm not saying they will beat Port but they should put in a solid performance against the team many tipped to make or win the GF.
Jay Croucher
Expert
*West Coast have the 8th youngest list in the competition Jax, middle of the pack. I agree Jax, your words and evidence have turned me, I will now back down and defer to your superior judgment and gleefully await West Coast's impending domination of the competition.
jax
Guest
Last week I read posts wherein people were calling Kennedy a FTB. Phil Smart beat Buddy, N Riwewoldt, Lynch and Hogan in the 4 preceding games and Josh kicked 6 goals on him last night. Four of them with one arm. It's the people with the least knowledge of WC that is leading the charge with these ridiculous comments. I'm going to keep laughing at them all year as they slowly but surely begin to eat their words. Go WC!
jax
Guest
"and they’re hardly a young team" They have the 5th youngest list in the comp right alongside Port. You should give up now mate as you are showing how little you really know about WC.
jax
Guest
You are showing your lack of knowledge and insight into WC Jay. Some people can see what's going on at WC but others need to be hit in the face with a stat before they can see what I and some others cansee clearly.
jax
Guest
No they haven't had a full side since 2011-2012 Daws. Practically every week of the last 3 years they have had 6-11 of their best 22 out injured and most of them long term. Rosa was close to best on ground the last 2 weeks and now he is out yet again. He has had a terrible run with injuries for many years. If WC had a full list to chose from they would pushing for the 8 for sure. They had lots of injuries last year and missed the 8 by one game and today they sit 5th on the ladder. There are a lot of blind observers still
Don Freo
Guest
Not much of a defense at Hawthorn.
Doctor Rotcod
Guest
So when Kennedy kicked five goals against the Hawks (twice)he was a flat track bully ?
Brewin
Roar Rookie
Quite liked this article. Listening to Triple M tonight, the Pies and Blues game and when the Pies were putting in the boot the boys kept talking about how important the percentage is. In fact a quote from Garry Lyon was "they have them by the throat and are squeezing, sign of a good side." Isn't that exactly what the Eagles do to sides that are below them? It amazes me the FTB name calling, they loose to sides clearly better than them hence they make the eight and the Eagles don't and then beat sides that are below them.
Natalie SwansFan
Guest
But isn't the truth that West Coast haven't beaten a side that played finals in 2013 and 2014? What would you rather measure yourself against. A side that played finals or one that didn't? (That is currently winless)
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
Very entertaining, we could use more articles of this calibre.
JT
Guest
West Coast's 0-20 record is against sides that *finished* in the 8 that season. It's a different story when you factor in position at the time of the game. For instance we beat a GCS side in Round 13 last year when they were three games clear of us and firmly in the eight with Gary Ablett firing. They were in the 8 for a number of weeks after that until Ablett did his shoulder. We also beat the Pies when they were in the eight, but I'll discount our Saints win because that was so early in the season. But to say we never beat teams above us is a factual error. Not trying to make us into world beaters, but there's the cute stats, and then there's the truth.
JT
Guest
Here they go - labelling Kennedy as the flat-track bully when if you actually watched the games instead of reading the scoresheets, you'd know that Kennedy gets to kick bags when our sub-par midfield actually has a good game. Kennedy can only kick goals when the ball's delivered to him decently, and unfortunately our midfield aren't good enough to do that consistently. Funnily enough, the games where he gets big bags are the games where, shock horror, our midfield are winners.
Don Freo
Guest
That would probably be the case. Over the last 3 seasons there have been massive long term injuries.. And retirements. Waters, Butler, Rosa, LeCras, Kennedy, Darling, Shuey, Selwood, Brown, Wellingham...for big slabs of time. It sounds implausible but it is true. The only problem is, Freo has had the same...but we are just really, really good.
Daws
Guest
Have they not had a full side at any stage in the last 49 games? 0 wins 20 losses against finalists is a damning statistic.
John F
Guest
Jay, I wouldn't put a cent on the hawks flag chances right now. Freo are top 2 CERTAINTIES !! my 6 groups A)Freo,Haw,Syd B)Port,Ess,Adel C)WB,Coll,North D)GWS,WCE,Rich E)Melb,Carl,Geel F)Gcs,Stk,Bris geelong will be lucky to finish 11th !! certainties: TOP 4:Freo/Syd TOP 6: add Hawks TOP 8:add Port,Adel
Peter Baudinette
Roar Guru
Good read Jay. A couple of things. Norths inconsistencies will forever keep them outside the top 4. I'm loathe to write off the Hawks after the way they punished Sydney in last years GF, but I can't see them steadying the ship in the same fashion as 2014, in terms of injuries. I'd be more inclined to bring Hawks back to the field and throw a blanket over them and Sydney, Port and Freo (in that order) for premiership favouritism. Your comments on West Coast are spot on. 0-20 against top sides tells a big story, no matter when it happened. They obviously couldn't break the hoodoo against Freo......Hoodoo's and curses do come to an end but footy psychology intrigues me. I wonder how mentally prepared they are when coming into the big games. There was obviously a disconnect for 11 goals to be kicked on them.
13th Man
Guest
yep, they are the flat track bullies of the AFL and Kennedy is the biggest flat track bully of them all, kicks 10 against the poor teams, goes missing against the top 8 sides, good player but never performs against the best. That is the Eagles problem.
Don Freo
Guest
I'm sure we took the foot off the gas against Sydney, illustrated by how readily we moved away again when we needed to...a bit like the Port game. Always under control...just stretched the neck at the end.
Don Freo
Guest
Well, they have Yeo, Butler, Schofield, Le Cras, Wellingham, Rosa back from injury...soon to be re-joined by Darling and Selwood. That's a massive adjustment to the midfield and some great stiffening of the defense. Young uns like Sheed, Nelson and Duggan are adding class and sharpness which spreads the load for Priddis, Masten and Shuey. This is a different West Coast side.