The Roar’s AFL expert tips and predictions: Round 5

As we approach Round 5 of the 2015 AFL season, some distance is starting to emerge between our panel of expert tippers.

But with a long season ahead, and a string of games that could quite easily fall either way this week, there is plenty of opportunity for the gap to close on our current leader, Cam Rose.

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Once again, our team has shared their tips and predictions for the coming round below. Think you can out-tip the experts? Share your thoughts on the round’s games in the comments below and have your vote in The Crowd‘s tips.

Ryan Buckland
Collingwood, Richmond, Sydney, Brisbane, Hawthorn, West Coast, Fremantle, Essendon, Port Adelaide

Alright. Falling behind a little. It’s only Round 5. I’ve still got time…

I’ve still got time…

Something resembling a marquee Friday night match up is in play this week, with the Pies and Blues duelling in what could be Mick Malthouses final game (if you believe Bryce Gibbs). I don’t think it will be – which coach would willingly sign off with a loss? The Pies should win relatively comfortably here.

Geelong and Richmond were my two tips as most likely to miss the eight from last year’s class. They’re 1-3 and 2-2 respectively, and neither have looked particularly threatening thus far. The Cats have had a terrible start to the year, but I have no faith in Richmond’s ability to capitalise. I see this one as a genuine toss up, so my Richmond tip should make you all tip Geelong.

The Bulldogs have started the year in very impressive fashion. But Sydney are members of the Elite Four – if I had to pick who they most resemble it would be Bruno because Bruno bashes and crashes you until you’re knocked out – and are playing at home, and so will get the points.

Two teams enter 0-4, one leaves 1-4. The other, 0-5. That sounded better in my head. Gold Coast have been desolated by injury, and look set to be the team to fall to five losses. Brisbane are Brisbane though (don’t remind me that I had them pushing for the eight…) so buyer beware.

A real test for North Melbourne looms on Saturday night, as Hawthorn enter the dome for the first time this year. The Hawks were arguably the winners on Saturday, with a quarter time adjustment by Coach Clarkson stemming Port’s first quarter surge and almost leading to victory. The Roos were better in the second half than the first, but Geelong are no Hawthorn anymore. It’ll be the Hawks.

Another genuine toss up is the other Saturday game this week – if this were played at Spotless Stadium I’d be taking the Giants. I reckon the Eagles will get smashed in the midfield, but have the power in the forward line to capitalise on enough opportunities to kick a winning score (they’re third in forward 50 conversion and first in accuracy).

The Dockers have emerged as premiership favourites in the first four weeks of the year, but Melbourne will make it more challenging for them than they have in recent years. The Dons have all of the pieces, while the Saints are a few short of a set.

Sunday is all about the Showdown, though. Adelaide burst out of the gates – some pundits immediately threw them into the top four – but have come back to earth with a loss to the Dogs. Port Adelaide have started the year reasonably, but haven’t put together a full game yet. It’ll be match of the round, and Port have the firepower to get over the Crows. But it’ll be a close run thing.

Sean Lee
Collingwood, Geelong, Sydney, Gold Coast, Hawthorn, West Coast, Fremantle, Essendon, Port Adelaide

Collingwood to defeat Carlton: Buckley’s coaching stocks are rising as quickly as Malthouse’s are falling. Sorry Mick, there will be no joy in your record breaking game this week as all the plaudits will be going to your former apprentice.

Geelong to defeat Richmond: While Geelong may not be the side they once were, Richmond hasn’t changed at all. For that reason Richmond will lose when they probably shouldn’t. Again.

Sydney to defeat Western Bulldogs: Gotta love those Bulldogs pups eh? Gotta love those big Sydney bodies more though.

Gold Coast to defeat Brisbane: The best thing about this game is its name – The Q Clash. The winner stays off the bottom. No glamour here.

Hawthorn to defeat North Melbourne: This could be a cracker depending on which North Melbourne turns up. Hawks will be smarting after last week though and they won’t want to upset Clarko.

West Coast to defeat GWS: You have to admire what the Giants have done so far this year, but like most young developing teams, they’ll occasionally have the beanstalk cut out from under them.

Fremantle to defeat Melbourne: There was a lot to like about Melbourne last week. Unfortunately for them this is a different week and they meet an undefeated Fremantle.

Essendon to defeat St Kilda: Essendon get hold of the footy enough to be able to beat any side. Maybe this week they actually will!

Port Adelaide to defeat Adelaide: Adelaide took a hit last week while Port have been quietly building into their season. Expect them to swap places on the ladder soon.

Cam Rose
Collingwood, Geelong, Sydney, Brisbane, Hawthorn, West Coast, Fremantle, Essendon, Adelaide

Carlton vs Collingwood: The Pies are coming off the ultimate team performance, and currently seem in the zone. The Blues have worked into the season, and have come claims to an upset in Mick Malthouse’s record-breaking game as coach. Collingwood by 23 points.

Richmond vs Geelong: Saturday afternoon mockbuster at the ‘G. Both sides will come out frothing at the mouth after a season of disappointment, but who can sustain their hardness and intensity the longest? I couldn’t trust it to be the Tigers. Geelong by 15 points.

Sydney vs Western Bulldogs: Two of the form sides of the competition clash, in what will likely be rainy conditions. The Swans record in the wet leaves a bit to be desired and the Dogs are playing with hardness and ferocity, but it’s hard to tip against the home team. Sydney by 16 points.

Gold Coast vs Brisbane: Two sides at an extremely low ebb. Both have put up one decent performance and three horrific across the first four rounds. If I could have one bet in the game, it would be that both sides disposal efficiency will be less than 50%. Brisbane by 8 points.

North vs Hawthorn: The Roos are still eyeing off a top four spot, but the Hawks don’t want to get themselves behind the eight-ball with another loss, and won’t be taking North lightly. Hawthorn by 28 points.

West Coast vs GWS: Both clubs have beaten the sides they’ll finish on top of come years end, and lost to those they won’t. I doubt they’ll be far from each other on the Rd 23 ladder, and while the Giants are the value roughie of the round and will have some of my money on them, I’m just going to stick with the home side. West Coast by 11 points.

Melbourne vs Fremantle: The Dees have been spirited, and playing to the instructions of Paul Roos to collect a couple of wins, but the Dockers are flying and won’t be dropping these sorts of matches this year. I do expect a bit of mental relaxation away from home after the huge Sydney clash though. Fremantle by 33 points.

St Kilda vs Essendon: The Saints are playing well early in games, but just can’t sustain it. The Bombers will be stung after a poor ANZAC day performance, and win this comfortably. Essendon by 58 points.

Adelaide vs Port: The Crows were probably due an off day against the Dogs, but to produce such a poor performance was a concern. Everyone keeps saying the Power is back. If the Crows can withstand one of Port’s famous blitzkrieg’s, they can win this showdown. Adelaide by 9 points.

The Crowd’s tips correct as of 9:30am (AEST) Friday, May 1 (192 votes).