The Blues host the Magpies this week in a game which sees coach Mick Malthouse break one of the longest-standing records in the AFL.
Ok now we’re getting somewhere with these Friday night match ups.
These are two sides that are not likely to make the eight when all said and done, although I will say the Pies have started the year better than I thought they would.
First up, how did we go with last week’s forecast?
Prediction: Richmond def. Melbourne by 18 points
Actual: Richmond def. by Melbourne by 32 points
Could I have been more wrong? Perhaps, but missing the victor and the margin by more than two goals is a fairly significant miss. That’s what you get when you back Richmond on the big stage. I threw a whole bunch of caveats on my pick, but still expected the Tigers to get the job done.
Here’s this week’s Friday Night Forecast.
Collingwood Magpies @ Carlton Blues
Friday, 1 May
Bouncedown: 7:50PM (EST)
MCG, Melbourne, Victoria
A Sandilands of column inches have been written about Mick Malthouse and the significance of his breaking of Jock McHale’s games coached record of 715 games this week.
So let’s not cover that ground.
One stat I’ll throw into the mix that I haven’t seen quoted elsewhere is how Mick has fared against his old teams over the journey. Since joining West Coast in 1990 – which was the first opportunity he has had to coach against a side that he previously coached – Malthouse has won 57 per cent of games against the side he last coached, compared to 59 per cent of other games.
What does that mean? Probably nothing.
Anyway…
On the field, this one looks to be a relatively easy call for Collingwood, given the form to date of both sides.
The Pies were brutal in their assault of Essendon last weekend, applying crazy levels of pressure and cramping the Dons for space. Collingwood lost the possession count in that game by almost 100, but still managed to get over the line by a few kicks. It’s because they didn’t let Essendon do anything with the ball.
Now that’s a problem for the Blues. Carlton, under Mick, have played a very conservative, use-the-wing attacking style. And as I wrote in my column earlier this week, the Blues are doing all they can to get an extra man at the contest. This works against sides like Essendon, who would rather beat you on the outside with precision kicking and hard work.
It will not work against the Pies. Collingwood are ranked number one in the AFL for contested possessions per game (164.5), and have seen the second highest share of possessions in games they’ve played as the contested variety (42.8 per cent, behind Melbourne at 46.2 per cent). Nathan Buckley knows his side’s limitations, and is matching his strategy to suit it.
It’ll be close – high contested possession games generally are – but I predict Bucks will rain on his mentor’s parade, as Collingwood win the day by 24 points.
That’s my Friday Night Forecast. What’s yours?
Jack
Guest
Pies by 50 sti think micks getting selection time wrong . Wood and ellard just don't belong . Rowe has a huge question mark
Darren
Guest
Ryan I really don't buy this idea that you purposely lose to get a better draft pick. 1: the negative of creating a losing culture far outweighs the benefit of a higher pick and 2: in so many drafts the best players have not been the highest picks. I think Malthouse has it absolutely right the coaches job is to develop the current group and have them focused on being the best they can be. Recruiters job is to bring the right players in to build the future. Keep those two goals separate.
Darren
Guest
Spot on Macca. Blues need to stay the journey with Malthouse otherwise they have wasted another 3 years. Although the list is not currently good enough to push up to the top group; recent recruiting (I.e since Mick has been there) has at least had some logic. like a number of clubs ( may not be too far away. Also the players give every indication they are 100% behind the coach. How well they stand up tonight might tell a story.
Macca
Guest
Further to our contested footy discussionc ourtesy of Fox Footy - The Blues have been strong around the contest, recording the third-best contested possession differential of any side while Collingwood has won the contested possession by 10.8 per game — the equal fourth-best differential in the competition.
Wilson
Roar Guru
Can see you logic there
Macca
Guest
I was against Ratten being sacked, against Mick being appointed and I don't like the style of play Mick has us playing right now (which is why I didn't want him appointed) but I don't think we should change coaches again now. My logic for this is that Ratten took over a disaster in 2007 and built a list to play the style of football he wanted with some success, when he was sacked Malthouse had a different vision of the list he needed and has dramatically changed the list in his 3 years and after this draft & trade period should have a list pretty close to what he wants - to change coaches now and have them remodel the list the way they want it would see us start the whole process again without seeing if the last process could bear fruit,
Macca
Guest
Wilson - I agree it could go wither way - I would have been more confident had Menzel been playing and I like the team better with Casboult in it despite his kicking (he crashes packs and provides good support in the ruck) but I still think it should be a good game. I must also say that in the two previous Carlton televised night games this year they have played decent footy for just far enough into the second quarter to make me start thinking they are a chance before suddenly playing terrible footy - hopefully that doesn't happen tonight.
Wilson
Roar Guru
and with that 2016 Is MICK still there?
Wilson
Roar Guru
did not see that but that make it better for them. It will be a close game I think but could still go anyway. at the moment I think Blues and Pies are at the same level with the Pies having more Luck. till the pies beat 2 or 3 of the top teams eg PORT, FREO and NMFC then I don't think the pies are top 8 by the end of the season.
Macca
Guest
I think the blues have to show progress - that means getting games into young kids while being competitive and not dropping too far down the ladder - now these may sound contradictory the blues draw still has them yet to play Brisbane twice, St Kilda again and the Gold Coast in Melbourne plus the Giants & Collingwood twice, the Bulldogs & Melbourne once (none of which I see making the finals) - if the blues win 6 of those 10 they get 7 wins the same as last year - a top 10 draft pick like last year and players like Buckley, Cripps, Whiley, Jaksch & Graham in a much better position to perform in 2016 than they were in 2015.
Wilson
Roar Guru
true that is one way for them to go, but mick has stated that he will not pick because they are young and up and coming that he will pick the best 22 he can for that week. It does mean that they could still end up at the bottom of the ladder and best Draft Pick with that idea still.
Macca
Guest
Ryan - Pre-season I had Carrazzo outside of my "preferred" 22 and I still think it is the way it should be. Whilst he is probably still in our best 22 and has been a great servant of the club I can't see the logic in playing him over Whiley or Graham (who continues ot be amongst the best in the VFL). As we saw last week playing inexperienced players doesn't mean you can't be competitive.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
I don't know if they want to restart their season, Wilson. Given how crowded the middle of the table is looking, I think they would be better off rolling with the youngsters and picking towards the top of the draft come season end.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
Yeah it has the makings of a good game for sure. It sounds mean, but for the sake of the Blues its sort of a good thing that Carrazzo is the one that missed for Judd's return, even though its through injury. It means they get to keep playing one of the young guys - all of whom have started well. It may be a lost season this year, but the penny seems to have dropped at Carlton HQ.
Macca
Guest
Wilson - The Blues average contested possession rate is being dragged down by a terrible performance against the Eagles where they managed just 118 - in the other 3 rounds they have had 143, 159 & 169 for an average of 157.
Wilson
Roar Guru
Looking at the Stats there is not much difference between them on any thing other then Contested Possessions with Pies at 164.5 and Blues at 143.2 everything else is small amounts. For me hoping to see the Blues win for Mick and it could restart there season if they win but the Brain is say that Pies will win.
Macca
Guest
"both sides like to play around the contest rather than on the outside" That why I like the introduction of Buckley and Boekhorst last week - gives the blues more on the outside to capitalise on their hard work (especially with Boekhorsts kicking). I am not confident of a win but not ruling it out either - hopefully it is a great game and our young blokes take another step forward.
Ryan Buckland
Expert
Yeah Macca, both sides like to play around the contest rather than on the outside. So from that perspective it has a lot of potential to be a close game. The Blues certainly could get up, and I wouldn't be surprised if both sides win two quarters each.
Macca
Guest
Hi Ryan - your comment about Collingwood and contested footy is an interesting one - if we look at the last 2 weeks ( where both teams played the same sides) in round 4 Carlton were the best at clearances and contested possession while Collingwood were 9th and second respectively. In round 3 Carlton were 3rd for clearances and 4 th for contested possession while Collingwood were 5th and 1st respectively (Also the blues average 42.2% of their disposals as contested - not sure where this rates but it doesn't seem far behind collingwoods 42.8%). It should be a great contest around the ball this week (especially with Judd back and Malthouses occasion) but it will come down to who can capitalize the best. Interestingly Collingwood have kicked just 2 more goals than the blues so far this year 51 to 49 and just 1 more behind 52 to 51