Given the cannibalistic nature of the conference system in Super Rugby, one country getting three sides into the finals is seen as a great feat.
However this year, such is the strength on the New Zealand conference and the emergence of the Lions and Rebels as third powers in their respective conferences, the unthinkable scenario of four sides from one country in the final six looms as a distinct possibility.
It is highly unlikely, and some things need to happen like the Lions and Rebels maintaining their great form. I am also banking on the Hurricanes taking it easy the last few rounds against the Crusaders, Highlanders and Chiefs and resting their star players.
It would be good for an All Black point of view as well. If they beat the Chiefs this week then the Canes should have top spot as good as locked up.
For Week 14 I have the Hurricanes (home) to beat the Chiefs, the Blues (h) to beat the Bulls, the Rebels (away) to beat the Reds, the Waratahs (h) to thump the Sharks, the Lions (h) to beat the Brumbies, and the Highlanders (a) to beat the Cheetahs.
That would leave Hurricanes 52, Chiefs 39, Highlanders 38, Waratahs 37, Bulls and Lions 35, Stormers and Brumbies 34, Rebels 33 and Crusaders 31.
For Week 15 I have the Chiefs (h) to beat the Bulls, the Hurricanes (a) to beat the Blues, the Crusaders (a) to beat the Waratahs, the Highlanders (a) to beat the Force, the Lions (a) to beat the Cheetahs, and the Stormers (h) to beat the Rebels.
That would leave Hurricanes 56, Chiefs 43, Highlanders 42, Lions 40, Stormers and Waratahs 38, Bulls 36, Crusaders 35, Rebel and Brumbies 34
Week 16 becomes interesting because I have the Hurricanes a virtual lock for top spot by then, which could see them rest some of their better players. This week I have the Crusaders (h) beating the Hurricanes, the Brumbies (h) beating the Bulls, the Sharks (h) to beat the Rebels, the Highlanders (h) to beat the Chiefs, the Stormers (h) to beat the Cheetahs and the Lions (h) to beat the Waratahs.
That would leave Hurricanes 57, Highlanders 46, Chiefs 44 and Lions 44, Stormers 42, Crusaders and Waratahs 39, Brumbies 38, Bulls 37 and Rebels 35.
Week 17 I’m expecting a half strength Hurricane team on the basis they can’t lose top spot. The Highlanders (a) over the Hurricanes, the Brumbies (a) over the Force, the Rebels (h) to beat the Bulls, the Crusaders (a) to beat the Blues, the Chiefs (a) to beat the Reds, the Waratahs (a) to beat the Cheetahs, and the Stormers (h) to beat the Lions.
That would leave Hurricanes 58, Highlanders 50, Chiefs 48, Stormers 46, Lions 45, Crusaders and Waratahs 43, Brumbies 42, Rebels 39 and Bulls 38.
Week 18 so many things will be up for grabs. Only sure thing will be the Hurricanes finishing top. I have the Blues (h) beating the Highlanders, the Rebels (h) beating the Force, the Crusaders (a) beating the Brumbies, the Chiefs (h) beating the Hurricanes, the Waratahs (h) smashing the Reds, the Bulls (h) over the Cheetahs, and the Sharks (h) beating the Stormers.
That would leave Hurricanes 59, Chiefs 52, Highlanders 51, Waratahs 48, Crusaders and Stormers 47, Lions 45, Rebels, Bulls and Brumbies 43.
These results would see four New Zealand sides make the finals. That would be a statement and a half.
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
So after round 14 it's Hurricanes 52, Chiefs 39, Highlanders 39, Brumbies 39, Waratahs 36, Bulls 35, Stormers 34, Lions and Crusaders 31, Rebels 30. Brumbies big winners, Lions and Rebels big losers in the overall scheme. The possibility of 4 NZ sides looks a little shaky as the Brumbies win has propelled themselves into the box seat for the Aussie conference. Should the Crusaders get the job done against the Waratahs in Sydney this week then the Brumbies will be in the box seats leading with points and having done the SA leg.
Lara
Guest
The Reds and the Force have at less won 4 games and lost only 19.The Blues and the Crusaders have lost 16 and won 8 ...oops something doesn't compute. Terry can you help me out ,it's beyond me !!!!
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
But you get to play the REDS and FORCE twice. I doubt there is a team in NZ or SA who wouldn't like two cracks at the reds this season.
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
Hurricanes play Chiefs twice, Crusaders and Highlanders. Chiefs have Hurricanes twice and Highlanders. Highlanders play Chiefs and Hurricanes Crusaders play Hurricanes The Chiefs and Hurricanes will suffer the most from cannibalizing, but they have the wins on the board already to be excellent top six chances. If the Highlanders and Crusaders can get the job done against all the teams they are not fighting against within their conference, they will go a long way to making it 4 NZ sides.
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
Might not be as wishful as you think. The Waratahs are a shadow of the side they were last year and the Brumbies haven't set the world on fire.
TERRY
Guest
But those 4 kiwi teams get to play the BLUES twice with a guaranteed 10 points to their total.. It`s not fair!!.. Wish my Rebels could play the kiwi teams more often as we have beaten the chiefs crusaders and blues.We`d love a crack at the Highlanders but we dont play them this year...RIGGED DRAW.
Lara
Guest
Home advantage is a big advantage and you should get it if you deserve it ,not because you just top your conference especially when it is weak.If you top your conference ,but have less points overall do you really deserve home game advantage.It is not the issue of just getting to the playoffs, its a case of being rewarded for consistency during the comp.
Harry Jones
Expert
Total wins per conference: NZ 33 SA 30 OZ 23 Hard to predict the SA final tallies. Probably a duel to the final week between the Stormers and Bulls; with the Lions capable of sneaking in. There is no unique cannibalizing; all the conferences face it.
Taylorman
Guest
Forgot about the ITM for this year. That will be going during the World Cup I suppose. It's needed to fill all those leaving!
Not Bothered
Guest
Id back the Saders against the Tahs and Brumbies. Imo they will make the finals, earning 14 from a possible 20. Putting them on 45.
Not Bothered
Guest
Basically the NZ teams are so well placed that the fact they play each INCREASES the chances of all 4 making it. The reason being that other teams are also facing the same issue on less points. I think its probably not going to happen but it is quite likely.
woodart
Guest
YES!!!! best idea Ive heard of for a long time. the sooner the ITM starts , the better.
Tinfoil Hat
Guest
The question has to be asked. In this time of professional rugby, how is it that such a tiny country can dominate the sport in such a manner. The expectation is that the AB's will win every time they run out and generally they do. It boggles the mind.
Cadfael
Roar Guru
The three home finals will be Hurricanes, Stormers and Tahs followed by the Chiefs, Highlanders and the Rebels.
Owen McCaffrey
Roar Guru
How can there be any problem with the conference system if NZ teams have a shot at having 5 out of 6 in a 6 team finals series? A NZ team didn't even win last year. Lowest possible projection at this stage is 3 NZ teams and likely is 4 NZ teams out of 5 in the finals. That is a conference system that's working.
Digby
Roar Guru
No, I would not like that much at all.
Zero Gain
Guest
Why don't NZ teams just play against each other and then select the most worthy opponent from the rest of the world to challenge your champion franchise?
Suzy Poison
Guest
By my calculations, it will be 4 New Zealand teams in the top six. 1. Canes 2. Stormers (SA conf leaders) 3. Brumbers (Aus conf leaders) 4. Chiefs 5. Crusaders 6. Highlanders I think the Tahs, Bulls, Lions and Rebels will all just miss out. And it looks it's the Canes title to lose.
Lindsay Amner
Roar Guru
I don't think the Hurricanes will rest their players more than they have to. The Waratahs showed a few years ago the folly of losing momentum by resting players once qualification was assured. They got thumped resoundingly a couple of times before the finals and weren't able to recreate the winning mentality in the finals.
Jerry
Guest
I had a look at the Crusaders record this season. Of the teams currently ranked above them, they've only won 2 games (vs the Lions & Highlanders) and lost 5 (Chiefs twice, Hurricanes, Bulls & Highlanders). I'd still back them to be able to win one of those - the most likely being against the Canes at home. But they could win any of the three.