The Wallabies have a kicking problem, and until it’s solved their chances at the World Cup are severely curtailed.
On the weekend Christian Lealiifano missed a conversion so simple it was basically a given. Just to the left of the uprights, a right-footed kick. Simple as. He hit the post and it bounced out, costing the Brumbies a win.
It was a miss that would have made Matt Giteau blush like it was Scotland 2009 all over again.
The Brumbies didn’t deserve to win their clash against the Stormers on the weekend, they played incredibly negative rugby, highlighted by the way they smartly marched down the field to get their last try, and what should have been the go-ahead conversion.
If only they’d deigned to play rugby before the 65th minute they could have run away with the match, instead of deciding to niggle, niggle some more and then niggle on top of that. But despite their negative plan, the Brumbies could have won if their kicked had put a simple attempt through the posts.
Lealiifano is one of the better kickers going around for Australia at the moment. Marinate on that in light of his miss on the weekend.
Bernard Foley had a shaky game against the Force on the weekend too, missing a couple of kickable attempts – although not as many as the positively shaken Sias Ebersohn. It affected the Waratahs chances of winning the game late on as well. The Tahs were down by 7 and could have taken a shot at goal from just outside the 40-metre mark with about 10 minutes left. Foley’s stats for the night – two from five – played a role in the Waratahs going for the lineout option rather than taking the relatively simple points on offer.
The incumbent Wallabies fly half’s kicking reputation has been greatly overstated since he slotted the grand final-winning penalty against the Crusaders last year. But he’s actually erratic with the boot. He made it in the final, and you can’t take that away from him, but over his career he misses that kick more than he makes it.
Out of the last five Waratahs games Foley has had two games you’d class as good at Super Rugby level – he potted three from four against the Brumbies and five from seven against the Blues.
Lealiifano, who is not long removed from a seriously sketchy kicking season, has landed 74.7 per cent of his kicks in Super Rugby so far. Foley has landed 64.81 per cent of his. Ouch. That’s the kicking rate of the most likely Wallabies goal kicker heading into a World Cup? Only Ebersohn (42.86 per cent) has a lower kicking percentage than Foley of any recognised kicker with more than 20 attempts at goal this season. Lealiifano is a better kicker, but he’s not likely to be on the field enough to be the main kicker for the Wallabies unless there is injury.
Mike Harris kicks well enough for the Rebels, but he’s not going to play for the Wallabies again. And we shouldn’t even go near the Force or Reds.
The main World Cup suspects from New Zealand are mostly around or above the 75 per cent mark – a reasonable benchmark for Super Rugby level.
Dan Carter is sitting on 77.42 per cent, including a game where he kicked 50 per cent in a loss, plus there’s a small track record of goals scored. Lima Sopoaga is on 76.92 per cent, while Colin Slade’s 72.92 per cent is something he’d be expecting to improve on.
What about those South Africans? In case you haven’t been staying up late/getting up early/watching the recordings, they’re doing extremely well off the tee.
Handre Pollard has taken the most kicks of anyone in Super Rugby so far (56) and has landed 80.36. Elton Jantjies makes 81.13 per cent. Demitri Catrakilis makes an absurd 89.36 per cent of his attempts. Patrick Lambie, probably competing with Pollard for the Springbok number 10, is slotting 77.5 per cent.
Jantjies is right about the mark a good long-term Test rugby kicker should be hitting – 80 per cent. Kicking your goals in Test rugby is even more important than Super Rugby given there are fewer try-scoring opportunities, and that is amplified even more during a World Cup. The South African kickers have a few right around that mark and the New Zealand kicking crew have a history of making theirs at about that rate.
And we haven’t even considered the northern hemisphere heavyweights, all of which have reliable kickers, probably aiming to nail the 80-85 per cent range, not 75 per cent and below where the Australian kickers languish. Leigh Halfpenny can kick goals easier than I can tie my shoes, and English and Irish fly-halves rarely kick poorly.
Looking at Lealiifano and Foley in terms of percentage is one thing, their kicking style is another – and is part of why they’re prone to having very poor days. Foley’s kicking style is very much a stabling motion, rather than a traditional arching swing and follow through, whereas Lealiifano relies on a (slightly reduced) curve on the ball’s flight. Both are variables that can be accentuated under pressure or when the kicker is tired.
The likes of Carter, Sopoaga, Catrikilis, Pollard and other higher level kickers aim to kick the ball dead straight, and while they have varied run up intensity, all clear their leg right through the ball. The more consistent, metronomic kickers have fewer moving parts and make their movements long and flowing.
We have a kicking problem that needs addressing.
mark
Guest
agreed. We also need a decent scrum and impact players who are in form. Below is a team that looks formidable: 1. Slipper 2. Moore 3. Kepu 4. Skelton 5. Simmons 6. Fardy 7. Pocock 8. Higginbotham 9. Genia 10. Debracini 11. Naivalu 12. Kerevi 13. Kurandrani 14. Mitchell 15. Folau Reserves: Stirzaker Hooper Gitau Holmes Sio Polota-Nau Jones Palu
ThugbyFan
Guest
I remember once reading an article about Dan Carter practicing just kicks for hours before each team training. Would be boring as hell for the bloke who has to collect the kicks but it sure worked for Carter. M.Cheika could book in a kicking coach for a couple of lessons then, over the next week, have each of his kickers boots 1000 goals (note NOT 1000 kicks but successful goals) in their own time, ideally in front of a club kicking coach or another kicker. Then 2-3 weeks later, repeat the effort. Similar practice for general play kicking, practice, practice, practice. Maybe even aim for empty spaces instead of straight to the fb. Its hard yakka but these blokes are professionals with plenty of time. I bet those percentages would improve.
ThugbyFan
Guest
I remember that match well. All of the match officials that day should hang their heads in shame and surrender their badges. Maybe IRC?WR can allow them to officiate the Icelandic Girls Public Schools 2nd Division competition. That's all they are good for. I thought the Saffer refs took the cake (Joubert and Kaplin were excellent hair-loss products on the market) but these four clowns took out the PIA (permanent ineptitude award). The England first try was a ripper to watch, too bad the pass to the winger was 2 metres forward right in front of the linesman. The other lineman, in a fit of pique at the first one's brilliant display of Blind Freddy, then missed the England winger (Brown??) standing on the line as he took a kick from the WB. This linesman was 15m away with no-one between him and Brown, maybe the noise distracted his sight, LoL. Said winger ran the ball up while the Aus players dawdled expecting a scrum, he was tackled, then another huge forward pass allowed. Even the receiving player was in front of the halfback before he passed, I screamed "Stone the crows, can it get any worse"? Good old NH refs nodded as England were allowed a try thanks to the worst obstruction of all time on the Australian line; both the ref and the (Welsh I think) tv referee allowed the try. Final score, 20-13, take away those two joke tries and Australia likely wins the match. For the RWC match against England, I'm expecting the IRC/WR to nominate the French ref from last year's tour match or the twit from Wales. To win, Aus must play a match worthy to win by 20 to ensure they can get past the referee/linesmen "interpretations". Agree with TWAS (amazingly so) that Cooper should get a run if he plays well for the last few SXV matches. I think the RC matches should be used as trials for some positions for the RWC. That's not to mean you should pick dud teams, but would like to see Cooper get at least a run-on start in one match, perhaps Timani, Stirzaker, Sio, PAE and Lealiifano also. And if you are looking for a halfback that can pass well, kicks good goals and has international experience, then look at Nick White. Anyone know his percentages?
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
So it's not possible that him kicking 4/8 in games against minnows with no pressure wasn't him not handling pressure, but the fact he wasn't kicking regularly, and likely not practicing regularly? How did he not stand up to pressure? In the semi final against NZ he kicked off out on the full... Then proceeded to have an average, decent game. His mental capitulation has been completely overblown. The fact was that he came in to the tournament in incredible form, and struggled to maintain that level at the time. Since then he's improved his flaws and become a better traditional flyhalf. He has also focused strongly on his kicking. For example in Dunedin in 2013 he kicked 6 from 6 and kicked 80% in tests in 2013. Foley is having a long chance now as a kicker and cannot show he can sieze it at Super Rugby level. Why should he be persisted with at test level? He also makes a lot of errors despite the misconception he is safe. Can he handle the pressure? Saying that Foley, CLL and Toomua have "better attitudes" than Cooper is ludicrous. How many of them have been publicly hung out to dry by a coach, then very publicly ignored despite form, sucked it up and actually improved their game, reduced and eliminated their flaws and come back a more rounded player? If that's not a good attitude, I don't know what the f*** is.
Bakkies
Guest
Jorgensen made the decision to go to league.
Connor33
Guest
Redkev. Thank you for the stats and timing of when the players were on the pitch. With Joc's stats I scratch my head and wonder why he was our first choice goal kicker. In 3 of the bigger games - Ireland, NZ and Wales - he was 50 percent or less. Heck, Cooper had a better stat at 50 percent. Had we beaten Ireland we probably would have played NZ in the final, rather than having to take the torturous path through the SA quagmire. There was no chance in hell we were going to beat NZ in that game, and this was confirmed from the first kick off of the game.
Connor33
Guest
Twas. I think two ships may have been passing in the night. And I should have been more clear at the onset. I said. "The NZ WC v. Cooper. He had a chance." What I meant by this was: Cooper during the NZ WC and that he just didn't hold up to the pressure as a player and a kicker and when he did kick, it was with a 4/8 record. My real point is that he had a chance kicking at a World Cup and he didn't seize it. NZ fans didn't help. But do really think 100,000 English fans are going to give him minutes silence if he kicks in October? Sadly, Cooper is not worth trying again. I know it's harsh. But that's life. Off topic, I also sense that his relationship with Deans during the WC became frayed because he was reluctant to implement the game plans set by deans. Toxic comments were then made in the following years. In the heat of a WC you just can't start griping around. There has to be discipline and perhaps he's learnt that. But for mine Foley, CLL and Toomua have the better attitudes and I'd bet the 3 of them win a WC before Cooper, Joc and Beale any day of the week despite all their purported x-factor.
Red Kev
Roar Guru
It's pretty easy to check - go to ESPN Scrum and check out the match details. v Italy Cooper started against Italy and kicked 2/3 Penalties. O'Connor came on off the bench 7 minutes into the second half and took the remainder of the kicks (3/4 conversions). Barnes of course was not yet fit to play. v Ireland O'Connor started and took all the kicks (2/4 penalties) v USA Australia kicked 6/11 conversions (Beale 0/1, Cooper 2/5, Barnes 4/5) Beale took the first, Cooper the next 5, and Barnes (who replaced Beale) the last 5. Cooper did attempt one conversion while Barnes was on the field. v Russia O'Connor took all 10 kicks and hit 9 of them. Qtr (v RSA) O'Connor hit 2/3 Semi (v NZ) O'Connor hits 4/9 from the tee 3rd (v Wales) Cooper came off at the 20 minute mark with a knee injury. O'Connor hit 3/6 from the tee.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
It's as relevant as how well Foley kicked in 2013 and before when he was 2nd and 3rd choice kicker at NSW. As in, it's not relevant.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
ESPN Scrum provides information on all this. The only information it doesn't tell you is who missed shots, so I have assumed based on substitution times and attributed all penalty misses to Cooper.
Connor33
Guest
Sorry "shots at goal in two games"? And what was his percentage in those two games?
Connor33
Guest
'Twas can you please confirm that your sources are correct. Are you sure that, as you say, Cooper only "attempted two shots in two games"? And that Barnes and O'Connor did not play in those games. It'd be great if you could provide the source that you're relying upon.
Buk
Guest
Great stuff Arthur, thanks for the insights. One of my kiwi mates here had Don Clarke, a great All Black kicker from the 1950's come to his primary school. Don said 'I'll hit the right upright with this one' which he duly did. Then he said 'Just to show it was no fluke, I'll do it again' which he duly did. He was an old-fashioned toe kicker, like Mick Cronin, although always stood the ball upright rather than torpedo apparently. Not surprisingly, noted for his tremendous amount of practice.
Buk
Guest
I think the NRC stats are a little better to go by, merely on the basis that its out of a sample of 55, rather than a sample of 19. I'll be interested to see his stats at the end of the season. The other problem with long range kickers, is that they tend to attempt goals from, say, 50+ metres that are not attempted by others. So stats may have a negative skew as a result.
Buk
Guest
Spoken like a true front-rower Sheek I think we need a few more front-rowers in Parliament :)
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
It was exactly 80% in fact. But it was only 5 games so it's not a great sample size. He was 75% for all of 2013.
HiKa
Roar Rookie
We're still searching for that expression in the rulebook. Did anybody else have any luck finding it? ;)
rugby.ftw
Guest
Also that part where their FB put a foot out of touch and then they got a penalty in the middle of the field that they knocked on when they took a tap and then after that came the obstruction incident.
rugby.ftw
Guest
there was a lot of other questionable things that happened in that game that cost us.. I don't blame cooper for that game at all.
rugby.ftw
Guest
I think his kicking % in 2013 for the wallabies would have been very good. Would at least have been more than 80. And that was from a similar situation as we are in now. He came back from injury and hit some really good form on the field and with the boot. I'm backing him to do this again and be starting come work cup time