Friday Night Forecast: Is a top-four spot on the line tonight?

The Roos and Dons do battle under the dome in this week’s Friday Night Football. What madness is this? A Friday night game without Collingwood or Carlton? What have we done to deserve this poor piece of fixturing?

**checks notebook**

Ahem. Yeah, OK, so this is much better than what we’ve been served up so far in 2015. Before we get stuck in, how did we go with last week’s forecast?

Prediction: Collingwood def. Geelong by 12 points
Actual: Collingwood def. by Geelong by 41 points

I wrote about both these teams earlier in the week, so let’s not rehash a lot of the arguments here. The match effectively boiled down to battle of two contrasting game styles, and that’s how things ended up – Geelong got the ascendency early, and never really let up. There’s life in these old Cats yet it seems.

But we’ll have to wait an extra day to see if they can back it up. Tonight’s game is so much more interesting, so without further delay, here’s this week’s Friday Night Forecast.

North Melbourne Kangaroos @ Essendon Bombers
Friday, 15 May
Bouncedown: 7:50pm (AEST)
Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
These two teams are my picks for fifth and six come the end of the season, so the four points on offer tonight are double meaningful. Let’s add an additional wrinkle: which of the pre-season top-four fancies (if you include Fremantle, as the most astute of AFL watchers did) would you consider locks at this point in the year? Probably the Dockers, and maybe Sydney.

That should whet your appetite right there – a possible shot at the top four is on the line tonight.

But if we’re being honest, both the Roos and Dons have been in a little bit of a funk in recent weeks.

Essendon have gone 2-2 since knocking over the reigning premiers in Round 2, with unconvincing wins against Carlton and St Kilda broken up by losses to the Pies and Dockers. After the win over Carlton, I anointed the Dons as this season’s challengers for the top four. Talk about putting the mozz on.

Everyone’s talking about them, but I’m still yet to hear a convincing argument on what the team’s issues are beyond attacks on people’s personalities. My read is that the Bombers have a forward line problem.

So far this season, Jake Carlise, Joe Daniher and co. have scored on just 38.8 per cent of their inside 50 entries. It’s not only the worst mark of any side this season, if maintained it’ll mean the Dons will be as effective inside the stripe as GWS were in their debut season. Wow.

But it’s somewhat excusable (cue the ‘the dog ate my spreadsheet’ joke). How’s this for a line up of defences to have played so far this year:

Sydney: #2
Hawthorn: #6
Collingwood: #3
Carlton: #17
St Kilda: #15
Fremantle: #1

Essendon are currently ranked fifth, meaning the Dons have played four of the top six defensive sides that aren’t themselves in their first six games. All of a sudden, having a historically terrible conversion rate looks a little less… historically terrible.

Fortunately for Bombers fans, North Melbourne are not a top six defensive side. In fact, they aren’t a top eight defence. Or a top 10. Or a top 12. They are a top-14 defence. Their score stopping skills are better than St Kilda, Gold Coast, Carlton and Brisbane, though, so that’s something.

But that doesn’t matter so much when you’ve got a great forward set up that looks amongst the silkiest in the league. Drew Petrie, Jarrad Waite, Ben Brown and Lindsay Thomas are proof that sums can be greater than individual parts.

I’ve lost count of the number of times the three talls seamlessly rotate through the three key position posts (full forward, centre half forward, and half forward flank/wing), while Thomas has learned to roam a little further from goal. It’s beautiful to watch.

North are also 2-2 in their past four, with losses against top four hopefuls Hawthorn and Port Adelaide, and victories over Geelong and Richmond.

This one has shootout written all over it. A tip for Essendon has to be banking on a little bit of mean reversion in their conversion rate, and that’s what I’ll be hanging my hat on this week, with Essendon to get home by 18 points. (Not that you should be trusting my tipping.)

I’m feeling a bonus forecast coming on! This game will see both teams crack triple digits on the scoreboard. If it happens, it’ll be for just the second time this season.

The other time? North Melbourne hosted Port Adelaide in Round Two. At Etihad Stadium. What do Port Adelaide and Essendon have in common? They’ve both played the top defensive sides in the league, and both have terrible conversion rates. A double ton is coming tonight.

That’s my Friday Night Forecast. What’s yours?