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After yet another incredible (and highly confusing) round of AFL, The Roar‘s expert tipsters are back once again to help you make sense of Round 7 with their tips and predictions.
The upsets just continue to rain down, round after round, making many level-headed AFL tippers question some of, what would otherwise appear to be, the most obvious of fixtures.
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As Ryan pointed out in his article on Tuesday, even the betting agencies are struggling, correctly picking just 35 of the season’s 54 games so far.
Let’s take a look at who the experts have tipped to snag the four points in Round 7.
Sean Lee
North Melbourne, Adelaide, Hawthorn, GWS, Sydney, West Coast, Fremantle, Collingwood, Port Adelaide
North Melbourne to defeat Essendon: North have only been winning every second week, so on that basis they are due to lose. But how will the Bombers, who have been flat anyway, handle the reopening of the supplement scandal from hell? Will it flatten them further? Or will it spur them on? Who knows, but current form would indicate that they are not good enough. Plus North seem to have the wood on them anyway.
Adelaide to defeat St Kilda: All credit to the Saints for that 55-point comeback last week. Can’t see Adelaide stopping to a walk like the Bulldogs though.
Hawthorn to defeat Melbourne: The ladder says that the Hawks are only one game better off than Melbourne so far this season. In reality though, the two are still poles apart despite the Demons’ obvious improvement and Hawthorn’s shaky start.
GWS to defeat Carlton: Quite simply, GWS are fulfilling their potential while Carlton are showing that any potential they thought they had was just a fantasy.
Sydney to defeat Geelong: Geelong were quick to remind us last week that we should never write off a wounded Cat. The reinvigoration will suffer a set back this week though with the Swans set to put the Cats back in their sand box.
West Coast to defeat Gold Coast: To the surprise of many the Eagles are flying high at the moment. Much higher than the Gold Coast anyway. Nothing will have changed by the conclusion of this game on Saturday night.
Fremantle to defeat Western Bulldogs: The Doggies have been crowd favourites this year. But just what type of Dogs are they? We suspect they may be sleek greyhounds, but by full time last week they were nothing more than silly sausage dogs. Unfortunately there could be a few more silly sausages running around come Sunday.
Collingwood to defeat Richmond: Could we have overrated the Magpies? Possibly, but I’m not going to make the mistake of overrating the Tigers.
Port Adelaide to defeat Brisbane: Port suffered an unexpected loss last week. They won’t this week.
The Dockers are the last undefeated side after six rounds. (Photo: Daniel Carson/AFL Media)
Ryan Buckland
Essendon, Adelaide, Hawthorn, GWS, Sydney, West Coast, Fremantle, Collingwood, Port Adelaide
After last week’s carnage, here’s hoping for a more settled round of footy, so I can start climbing back up the ladder.
Who am I kidding. I’m gone already. Bring on the upsets!
A word of warning, after I did my little write up I noticed I ended up picking based purely on ladder position. It’s very rare for this strategy to pay off, so take a risk on one of the Saturday games.
Friday night footy finally delivers a top eight match up, with the Dons taking on the ‘Roos. The World Police are on to Essendon now, and it would have to be playing on their minds. Meanwhile the ‘Roos are quietly building to something, having assembled a top four offence. I think it’ll be there’s to lose – but come back tomorrow for my Friday Night Forecast!
Saturday looks reasonably clear cut. We did say that last week, though. So if we had to pick the game most likely to end in tears for the favourite, which would it be?
Adelaide vs St Kilda (7/1 St Kilda upset). The Crows are firing, and have the best tall-small forward combo in the league. The Saints are making a habit of running teams down. Adelaide haven’t been the best fourth quarter side in the league, so the question is can the Saints get close enough at three quarter time? I think not.
Hawthorn vs Melbourne (12/1 Melbourne upset). What’s up with the Hawks? Not much – they have the league’s top ranked offence, and are sixth defensively. Sounds familiar doesn’t it? Meanwhile, what’s up with Melbourne? The league’s second-worst offence. Nah, no upset here.
Carlton vs Greater Western Sydney (9,745/1 Carlton upset). Does this one need explanation? No? Ok good.
Sydney vs Geelong (3/1 Geelong upset). This one is a little more complicated. Sydney would have to be counting the number of games they have remaining at Olympic Park like a six year old counting the days ’til Christmas. Buddy didn’t kick a goal last week. Since 2006 he’s only been held goal-less in consecutive rounds once; every other time (and he’s only been goal-less 10 times in 189 games), he has kicked at least three, and up to six, against his next opponent. The Cats beat a rising ‘Pies side last week, to confound and confuse everyone that’s in this prediction caper. It’s got major potential, this game, which means it’s the one most likely to end in an upset.
West Coast vs Gold Coast (7/1 upset). The Eagles are almost living up to their 2015 moniker “The West is Ours”, despite currently sitting second on the ladder with the league’s second best offence. I’ve been copping it all week on West Coast, because I think chasing a top eight spot this season is a dumb idea. They’ll go one step closer to being dumb this week. Gold Coast are yet to win a game at Subiaco, but have gotten mighty close in the past. Look, it could happen, but it’s not likely.
Fremantle play the Dogs early on Sunday, in what will be a good test of where everyone’s second favourite team (don’t fight it Pete!) is at. I called them as a likely top eight candidate earlier this week, and keeping the game within ten goals against the Meat Grinder otherwise known as Fremantle circa 2015 would suggest they’re well on the way.
Now here’s a game with major wonky potential. The Tigers are doing their best impersonation of a bottom four side, and aren’t quite succeeding; while the ‘Pies are doing their best impersonation of a top eight side, and until last week were making a good show of it. Can T Cloke kick straight? Will T Cotchin silence his critics? This one’s shaping up nicely. I’ll back Collingwood, but I could see this as the game Richmond get back on track – even if this season is rapidly slipping away for them.
Port Adelaide travel to Brisbane, but for some reason can’t escape the Sunday twilight timeslot. I make it three straight weeks of bookending the round, and they’re currently 1-1. They’ll make it 2-1, and improve to… wait, nope, they’ll probably still be outside the eight after the round. Hmmmm.
Cam Rose
North Melbourne, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Carlton, Sydney, West Coast, Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, Port Adelaide
Essendon vs North Melbourne: Is the hammer drop from WADA going to cause an emotional let-down on the Bomber players? Will it galvanise them once more? Will it have little material impact? We can’t confidently answer any of these questions, just as we can’t confidently know what sort of form the ‘Roos are really in. Essendon are a value bet, but it’s hard to tip them based on the evidence of the last few weeks. North, with their 3-1 record over the Bombers in the last two years, by 11 points.
Adelaide vs St Kilda: The Crows are losing a few soliders, while the Saints have started getting theirs back and are playing in great heart, but I don’t see Phil Walsh’s men dropping this sort of match this season. Adelaide by 37 points.
Hawthorn vs Melbourne: The Hawks have surprisingly dropped three matches they were expected to win in the six matches so far this season, but will still prove too strong against a Melbourne that can’t play four quarters of solid football. Hawthorn by 34 points.
Carlton vs GWS: The Blues coming off a season low, the Giants coming off a season high. I wonder how often sides have met coming off these circumstances, and the outsider has won? I get the feeling it might be more than we’d think. Carlton by 7 points.
Sydney vs Geelong: The Cats looked like a side that could play finals when dismantling Collingwood last Friday night, while the Swans have been swinging between highs and lows all season, both in games and across rounds. Sydney by 23 points.
West Coast vs Gold Coast: The Eagles have been the surprise packet of the season so far, but I’m yet to be fully convinced despite last week’s stunning win. It’s doubtful that this match against the Suns will do much to sway any skeptics either, but Gold Coast are improving. West Coast by 45 points.
Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle: The Dockers are going to drop one sooner or later, and this is probably one of only two likely chances before their Round 12 bye. They’re doing everything well. The Dogs dropped what they shouldn’t have last week, and will come out snarling. It’s going to be a fascinating contest between the masters of pressure against the apprentice. Fremantle by 17 points.
Richmond vs Collingwood: The Tigers are in God-awful form, trying hard some of the time, but devoid of confidence for all of it. You get the sense from Nathan Buckley that the Magpies will respond well to poor performances this season. Collingwood by 28 points.
Brisbane vs Port: The Lions got the monkey off the back last week, and that will have to do for now. The Power can’t be dropping this sort of game, but if they do… Port by 55 points.
| Round 7 | Cam | Ryan | Sean | The Crowd |
| ESS v NM | NM | ESS | NM | NM |
| ADL v STK | ADL | ADL | ADL | ADL |
| HAW v MEL | HAW | HAW | HAW | HAW |
| CAR v GWS | CAR | GWS | GWS | GWS |
| SYD v GEE | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD |
| WC v GC | WC | WC | WC | WC |
| WB v FRE | FRE | FRE | FRE | FRE |
| RIC v COL | COL | COL | COL | COL |
| BL v PA | PA | PA | PA | PA |
| LAST ROUND | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| OVERALL | 36 | 32 | 35 | 36 |
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