Michael Cheika’s Waratahs are making heavy weather in clinching a Super Rugby play-offs berth, thanks to lowly bonus points.
There’s only one sure way to defend the title they won so handsomely last season – and that’s to top the Australian Conference.
As it sits with four rounds to go, the Waratahs trail the Brumbies by two points, even though the Canberra-based franchise has won 7 of 13 games, while the Waratahs have won 8 of 12.
The difference are bonus points – the Brumbies have 10, the Waratahs 4.
There’s no way the Waratahs can match last season where they chalked up 10 bonus points in the 16 rounds to not only top the Australian Conference with 58 points, but the overall tournament.
It’s hard to reason why the Waratahs have been so hot and cold this season when they virtually have the Wallabies’ starting line-up.
But far too many of their roster have played in spurts, making elementary mistakes week after week.
Last Saturday night the Waratahs had turned over possession 21 times, and made 15 handing errors, yet beat the Sharks 33-18.
If they repeat those stats next week against the always hard to beat Crusaders at ANZ Stadium, they will be severely punished, when a win is a must to take over the Australian Conference lead while the Brumbies have a bye.
Then the Waratahs face the Lions and Cheetahs away, finishing the regulation rounds at home against the old enemy, the Reds.
After the bye, the Brumbies meet the Bulls at home, the Force away, and the Cheetahs at home.
The equation is simple.
Both the Waratahs and Brumbies must finish the rest of the season unbeaten, any hiccup could prove to be disastrous.
The ladder looks like this, kicking off with the three Conference leaders.
The Hurricanes are tearaway leaders, having lost just one game all season to the Waratahs. Included in their 52 points are eight bonus points.
Brumbies are on 38, with 10 bonus points.
Bulls are on 35, with seven bonus points.
The next three are equal on points: Chiefs 39, with seven, Highlanders 39, with seven and the Waratahs 36, with four.
Only four of the other nine teams can make the play-offs: the Stormers 34, with two bonus points, the Lions 31, with three, Crusaders 31, with seven and the Rebels 30, with six.
The ball is entirely in the Waratahs’ court. On their day they can’t be beaten.
The problem has been that those days are too far apart.
The Crusaders clash will be the Waratahs’ season litmus test.
Mike
Guest
One of the few sensible posts about Hoffman's refereeing. He gave plenty of assistance to both sides. Sharks were no more robbed than Tahs were under Hoffman the previous week when they lost to the Force.
Mike
Guest
While you are at it, can you sort out the other three Mikes? Ta.
Harry Jones
Expert
Guys, some teams play a penalty-wracking style. The Chiefs, for instance. The Stormers try to minimise penalties, and "win" a lot of penalties. The Chiefs have conceded 50 more penalties than the Stormers this season. A lot of different refs. Come on. The Brumbies are upping their abrasion. They're second in penalties conceded. The Lions also seek to avoid penalties. So the penalty counts will tend to be lopsided. But the Chiefs are great, and the Brumbies lead the OZ log. A clash of styles.
Anthony Hird
Roar Guru
Genia isn't the form 9 at the moment. QC, will he be fit enough, will he his form come back - too many uncertainties.
Lindommer
Guest
Two LHPs, Anthony? Que? I'd wager 98% of Australian rugby supporters'd plump for Kepu to wear the 3 jumper.
Johnny Boy Jnr
Guest
Jerry, I seldom agree with you but your comment couldn't have been said better!
Johnny Boy Jnr
Guest
1. Slipper 2. Moore 3. Kepu 4. Simmons 5. Fardy 6. Higginbotham 7. Pocock 8. Va'ia 9. Genia 10. Cooper 11. Tomane / O'Connor 12. Kerevi 13. Kuridrani 14. Horne 15. Folau 16. ? 17. Sio 18. Holmes 19. Skelton 20. Palu 21. Stirzacker 22. Foley 23. AAC
Johnny Boy Jnr
Guest
No one is doubting Hoffman had such a shocker he changed the outcome of the game but please, if there was a ref more biased against Aussie sides than Kaplan I haven't seen him. He must have made millions through Hansie's bookie
MH01
Guest
Valid point, Hooper and Dennis have very poor ref management . They are more likely to mismanage the ref to award penalties against them.
MH01
Guest
In my opionon Hoff had a bad game, comparing it to the SA games does not justify it. Brumbies v lions was very well refed.
MH01
Guest
A fair comment. Spiro needs to be critical of refs equally, and on sat Hoff had a bad game. interesting there have always been refs that had bias against certain teams, I used to cringe everything Watson refed a Brumbies game, I'm sure gregan had a little to do with that tough love :)
MH01
Guest
I know what you are referring to. In recent years the Brumbies have not looked like beating the saders.
DMac
Guest
There's something going on with Cheika in my opinion, I think he's playing games. Example: last year the tahs used a short kickoff with Folau or AAC winning it back as often as not. This year, I can't recall then even trying it. They just kick deep and wait for the lineout. A working tactic has been canned. Could he be saving it for later in the season, or even the rwc? I don't know, but it's odd....
Pinetree
Guest
If the Chiefs finish 2nd in points, they will almost certainly play the Canes in the SF. If the Chiefs managed to win that SF, they will have to play an away final. Unfair in 2 ways. A NZ team has to miss out on the final, and if the Chiefs win, they deserved to have a home final with 2nd most points, but are forced to play away. Not really fair is it T'man.
DMac
Guest
They're the bizarro-tahs, who only ever win with the referee's help.
DMac
Guest
Perhaps so, and we'll be happy to let it go just as soon as the haters stop diminishing our achievement last year :-)
dsat24
Guest
Tana Umaga.
DMac
Guest
You cherry pick one example. Go for the ones with Genia and Cooper instead. Only tah in the backs is Folau. In the forwards, Kepu usually gets the nod, and Skelton is becoming more common. That's it. 3 tahs. You don't have to look hard to find that team around here.
DMac
Guest
What was their record under him? Like 2-19 or something.
Worlds Biggest
Guest
All good points Will, the Tahs lack an edge to there game this season which they had in spades last year. The physicality isn't as prominent, JackPots not having the same impact IMO and I think they miss the big rig in Kane Douglas. The Tahs have come back to the pack, add to the fact other teams such as the Highlanders, Canes and Stormers have lifted several notches this season. It's the Canes Title to lose this season.