It was another fantastic week of rugby. It started with the Blues, despite being undermanned, showing how tough a nut they are to crack at Eden Park.
Next up were the Reds with their new coach.
After the first 15 minutes it looked like the Rebels by a lot but the Reds suddenly found their mojo and destroyed the Melbourne side.
Saturday started with the Hurricanes winning in controversial circumstances over a brave and undermanned Chiefs outfit. Even without the controversy at the end, their kicking let them down much like it did against the Rebels. It cost them a win yet again.
Then, the Waratahs and the referee defeated the Sharks. The end margin was extremely flattering to the Waratahs who had the run of the whistle in what was a 50-50 game otherwise.
The South African games were crackers. The Brumbies looked back to their brilliant best and their win over the Lions has put them back in the box seat for the Australian Conference. They frustrated the Lions all night with their aggressive defence.
Rounding out an awful weekend for the South Africans was the Highlanders who demolished the Cheetahs. The margin should have been 40 except for the Highlanders relaxing in the last 10 minutes of the contest and letting three cheap tries in.
So what does this mean in the grand scheme of things? Well the Hurricanes with 52 points are 13 points clear at the top with four rounds remaining.
Barring a complete self destruction by them and a brilliant finish by one of their three main rivals they will win the New Zealand conference and finish top overall.
They square off against the Blues at Eden Park. That game will not be easy and they will have to bring their best game. A loss here could give the Chiefs and Highlanders some hope of top spot.
Chiefs and Highlanders are sitting next on 39. The Chiefs are at home to the Bulls and they should have too much class, particularly in the backline, with the likes of Sonny Bill Williams returning.
The Highlanders face a tough one against an improving Force in Perth but will go into the game as favourite and have a better than even chance of winning if their backline continues to roll. Wins by both of these sides and a loss by the Waratahs could see them put a nice two game gap of the chasers with just three rounds remaining.
Sitting atop of the Australian Conference are the Brumbies on 38. The Brumbies have a bye this week so they will have a keen eye on results, particularly the Waratahs-Crusaders clash. They do look the pick of the Australian teams. They are two points clear of the Waratahs but I wonder how much they would like to have the penalty back against the Waratahs in the final minute where they went for the win instead of the draw.
A draw that night would have them five points clear with two home games to come.
The Waratahs on 36 points come next. Their form in the last month has been well off their 2014 form and they come up against a resurgent Crusaders team who are well rested, back in form and playing for the lives.
It will be a massive game for both teams. Crusaders lose its all over red rover for them. Waratahs lose and the Brumbies will be sitting in the box seat, with a nice run home.
The Bulls on 35 points come up against a Chiefs team who should have SBW back and possibly Brodie Retallick for the game. They will need to pull off the upset to maintain top spot in the South Africa conference but that will be a tough ask to a Chiefs side hungry for the fourth spot with the Highlanders.
The Stormers sit on 34 points and rested and at home to the Rebels they should get the job done. The Rebels, after looking so impressive on defence this year, were cut to shreds by the Reds.
While the Stormers won’t do that as it is not their game style, home advantage should get them the win in what will likely be a low scoring defence orientated contest.
Lions and Crusaders are next on 31 points. The Lions are away against the Cheetahs. Not much separated them last time in a free flowing open affair and it is a must win for the Lions.
They lose and they are finished. There is a slight possibility the Lions might even move to the top of the South Africa conference with a four try win, if the Bulls and Stormers lose. The Crusaders will be in Sydney in a do or die match.
They are the last team anyone wants to be playing in this scenario and the Waratahs have been well down on form. Both sides will need to bring their best because their season relies upon it. If this was played in Christchurch I would have the Crusaders as a lock but the Waratahs’ home ground factor makes it a 50-50 contest.
Rebels on 30 points are in the same scenario, needing a win on the road against the Stormers. They were expected to get full points from the Reds game but came away empty handed. I think this will be too much of a hurdle and they will be the first team to drop out the finals race, leaving just nine sides remaining fighting for the final six.
The match of the round next week will be Waratahs versus Crusaders. The Chiefs versus Bulls along with Stormers against the Rebels are the other top team clashes of note.
Only the Reds and Sharks game has no relevance to the finals, and that being said it will probably be the best spectacle, especially if both teams bring last week’s free flowing rugby.
Taylorman
Guest
I see both goldie and Borich have gone for the Blues versus the canes this weekend from the Breakdown show tonight. Eden park sure carries a lot of weight.
Alphonse
Guest
Spot on HiKa. Check this out: http://www.condenaststore.com/-sp/First-I-d-like-to-blame-the-Lord-for-causing-us-to-lose-today-New-Yorker-Cartoon-Prints_i8672941_.htm
Rugby Tragic
Guest
BBA, I think the Blues were bit stiff with injuries in the crucial 9, 10. Bryn Hall who had a great season in the ITM looked like a great prospect backed by Gibson-Taylor but due to injuires Hall has had no game time and JK relied on Cowan who, with respect has passed his use by date as far as I am concerned. When they signed Ihaia West as well I thought, 'at last'... well we all know what happened. At the beginning of the season before a game, the Blues pack looked more than competitive with the new halves signing I only saw the midfield as not quite being there, particularly after Ranger followed the money trail. Saili I thought deserved another chance but was off the pace in 2014 after a good 2013 year. Anyhow I hope some painful lessons have been learnt from 2015 (I seemed to be saying the same thing last year!) and 2016 will bring bigger and brighter results - I can live in hope
kiwi
Guest
HiKa, I am in agreement with all your points here. Couldn't have said it better myself.
Taylorman
Guest
No it doesn't, nor does it mean that the next coach will be better, especially if it's is selected by as you say, the same inept board. So it really is a case of better the devil you know. Because JK at least knows more than any incoming, yet just as inept, coach.
HiKa
Roar Rookie
I see two sides to this. I look at players waving fingers at opponents as they run in tries and I despise their conceit and contempt for their opponents, but I also enjoy seeing players who are genuinely ecstatic and enjoying what is (despite the money involved) a game that people play for fun. By the way, I am also annoyed by players thanking their God/s when they do something in a sporting contest. Any God worth following wouldn't be bothered with what happens on a sports field.
somer
Guest
JK's no scapegoat, his coaching record over 13 years or so has been decidedly poor. Because the Blues management are inept and have appointed a number of poor coaches over the years, it doesn't logically follow that Kirwin - the poorest of the lot, should be excused.
Akari
Roar Rookie
Is it because the Reds players contracts are on the line and they now realise that they must perform to remain on the payroll. It is also possible that pride contributed to bring a once proud union back from the brink this year.
Paul longman
Guest
On the rugby showboating video common sense the key to advice from commentator JD Put the ball down at try time and respect other players To be honest it's getting boring watching try celebrations in southern and northern hemisphere rugby its all the same by these so called proffesional rugby players what a carry on Taffy down under
KiwiDave
Roar Guru
Jaco Kriel has been awesome this season. Can't believe he didn't even make the wider springbok training group, given they added 17 new players. He seems to be getting the Brussow treatment
Taylorman
Guest
Yep...from what I've seen the fingerpointing amounts to a lot of guess work, pot shots at this or that. The pluses are no one has really dealt to them in the way the Reds, Sharks have been hammered and they've beaten top teams, the Eden park jinx still continuing to work its magic. Other than that, nothing's really stood out. Jk may be the scapegoat but that gives me no confidence a new coach will improve things next year.
BBA
Guest
Personally i doubt that it is JK's psychology. JK has not recruited well evidenced by how he has tried to develop his halves combination. Getting the team round the firld is the main problem with either halves too raw or unfortunately past it. Although no Blues fan there may be hope with the combinations they have now in the halves if they can stick with them. As the Blues have had problems with a number of coaches over a long period of time if I were to point fingers then i would be pointing them at the admin.
HiKa
Roar Rookie
Great summary of the state of play for the super rugby finals. Well written, KiwiDave. Thanks.
Taylorman
Guest
Good to know you have the state of the players minds well in hand Apelu. You'd think at least one of them would communicate that state of mind though? At least they're now beating conference leaders, and in style. JK has to be given sound credit for that, and the selection of Ioane, given he's routinely rounded for not picking good players. Hope he's back next year.i can't be bothered watching a new coach 'learn' about the vagaries of Auckland rugby. Been watching that for 12 years now, so it's not limited to JK.
apelu
Guest
The Blues are a good team, but the players' minds have been tortured by JK's flawed psychology. Akira Ioane is an amazing talent with a god mix of power and speed of feet and mind.
Taylorman
Guest
Blues on a hat trick to knock the third of the 3 conference leaders over this weekend? About the only thing we can look forward to them from this year. :-) From a kiwi perspective great to see players stepping up. Nonu in his best sxv form for some years, even Gear looking for work and finding it. All three Smiths humming away nicely and fringe players putting hands up in Elliot, Savea, ioane. Reds result was sure weird...why have they suddenly decided to play now? Agree the Reds Sharks game could be a real cracker...no reason for either side to be cynical and both look ready to just get on with playing the game. Bet it's the most entertaining match of the round...bar the Blues knocking the Canes over...sorry digger... :-).
Harry Jones
Expert
The players who stood out to me were Ben Smith, who ran riot in Bloemfontein and could have scored 100 points if they kept playing another half, JOC (who I have always rated, and think will be one of OZ's RWC stars), Hosea Gear, and the Reds winger, Kuridrani and AAC, Nonu, Serfontein (who I've been harsh on, this season), Nic White (not a guy I enjoy, but he was the master at Ellis Park), A Savea, Jaco Kriel, Liam Gill, Hika Elliott (bolter?)