Stats interesting: Stuff from the numbers from Round 15

Once again, I’ve taken a look into the numbers coming out of Round 15, and this week, the motivations have come from discussions and observations over the last week.

And as mentioned last week, please feel free to share any observations you’ve made yourself from the numbers.

Much like tomorrow’s expert tipping panel, think of this as an opportunity to share your own views and discuss the stats that matter, or indeed, the stats that are completely useless but still interesting.

Big Willy style
I mentioned on Tuesday that while it’s felt like Will Skelton’s defensive ability has really lifted in recent rounds, his attacking contribution in that same time seems to have suffered.

Specifically, I wrote that Skelton had “managed only one offload in total for the Crusaders and Sharks games, while he got seven away against the Force and Brumbies. His run metres in those four games have barely broken 20 each match, as well.”

I mentioned that it will be interesting to keep an eye on these figures over the remainder of the season, but then wondered if there might be some patterns emerging in Skelton’s attacking and defensive involvements.

So I went back over his numbers for the season, and looked specifically at his minutes played, the number of runs or carries, offloads, and tackles made in each game to date. This is how it looks in a pretty graph:

Admittedly, there doesn’t look to be too much in the numbers when plotted this way. It’s certainly clear he had big ball-carrying games against the Blues and Stormers, and made the most metres against the Blues and Hurricanes.

Otherwise, things look reasonably consistent all season. On average, he plays 74 minutes, makes nine runs for 17.5 metres with not quite two offloads, and makes just over six tackles per game.

So, like all good stats, you have to look a bit further.

You might recall that the Waratahs beat the Hurricanes 29-24 in a cracking Round 10 game in Wellington. It was the Canes first loss of the season, and since that win, the Tahs have dropped only one game to resume the Australian conference lead.

So if we recognise that game as a turning point for the Waratahs, it’s appropriate to split Skelton’s season along the same line. And it’s here that the numbers start backing up the perception.

For one thing, where he played 80 minutes in only two of the first seven games, Skelton’s gone the distance in four of the six games since.

Up to and including the Stormers game, Skelton carried 10.9 times for 18.3 metres, and got away two offloads per match. But he was only making 4.6 tackles a game.

Since the Hurricanes game, in attack he drops to 7.2 runs for 16.7 metres and 1.7 offloads, but his defence increases to 7.8 tackles per match.

In that same time, we’ve started talking about the Waratahs playing slightly more pragmatically, and that they’ve had to grind wins rather than blow teams away as they could last year. The Crusaders game was the first bonus-point win since that Hurricanes game. They’re still winning, but it hasn’t felt like they’ve put together the proper 80-minute performance.

That certainly isn’t to say that if Skelton lifts in attack the Waratahs will just click into gear. The Crusaders game was Skelton’s best of the year in the eyes of many, so it will be interesting to if he is able to duplicate some of his defensive mongrel into attack, whenever he gets on the field next.

When ball carrying just isn’t enough
Last week’s stats piece drew some interesting discussion around the type of rugby stats available publicly, and what we’d really like to see. I’ll certainly reiterate my personal request to be able to see the advantage-line gain percentages alongside possession and ball-carry counts.

As I’ve said in this very series, what you do with the ball when you have it is far more important than how much you actually have it.

That said, you can still make something out of the info we do get. One comparison I wrote down last week after some suggestions was the amount a team carries, the number of clean breaks they make, and the number of carries required to produce a clean break.

So here it is, again with pretty graphics, and graphics that tell an obvious story.

Clearly, we can see that, in order, the Rebels, Waratahs, Hurricanes, and Force carry the ball most in Super Rugby this season. The Chiefs aren’t too far behind the Force, either.

Additionally, we can see that the Crusaders, Chiefs, Waratahs, and Hurricanes make the most clean breaks on average. And this makes some sense; respectively, they’re ranked second, fourth, equal fifth, and first on the try-scoring tallies for the season.

And perhaps not so surprisingly, they’re also the most effective teams with the ball. They require the least number of carries to make a clean break. The Crusaders make a break every 10 carries, while the Chiefs, Waratahs, and Hurricanes are all either side of a break every 11 carries.

On the other side of the coin, you can see for a number of sides the large gap between the average number of clean breaks, and the ratio of clean breaks to ball carries.

It shouldn’t surprise anyone that the Blues, Brumbies, Bulls, Reds, Sharks, and particularly the Western Force require the most carries before making a break.

All six teams have had varying backline related issues in 2015, including but not limited to injuries, lack of direction, no consistency of combinations, and a reliance on the maul.