With only three rounds of the 2015 Super Rugby rugby Season to be completed and ten teams still in the running for a semi-finals spot, this weekend’s matches are crucial.
The Hurricanes are clear New Zealand conference and overall Super Rugby competition leaders on 57 points. They come against the Crusaders who only just fell short to the Waratahs last week, and are in a must win situation. For this reason, the Crusaders might just sneak away with a win.
While 27 competition points separate the Hurricanes from the tenth-placed Rebels, there is only 11 points that separate the Rebels from the second-placed Waratahs.
I think we can safely say that the Rebels’ loss last week has sealed their fate, although it is still mathematically possible for them to make the top six, depending on other teams losing. However, they have the Sharks in South Africa, which is a far different proposition to playing them at AAMI Park in Melbourne, followed by the Bulls and the Force at home.
The Crusaders’ game against the Hurricanes will be a cracker. A loss tonight will certainly see the Crusaders out the back door, with the Blues in Auckland and the Brumbies in Canberra.
The Brumbies versus Bulls game at GIO stadium in Canberra is also a very important one for both sides. If the Waratahs fall against the Lions in South Africa, which could happen, a win tonight could see the Brumbies regain a slender lead as the Australian conference leaders, with the Force in Perth followed by the Crusaders at home.
The Waratahs are without Will Skelton who just keeps getting better and better, and would be extremely valuable against the physical Lions side. Until the two-week suspension of Skelton and the four-week suspension of hooker Latu, I would have been inclined to favour the Waratahs for this match, after their game against the Crusaders last week.
The Lions are desperate as they sit outside the top six by one point and are playing the Waratahs at home, which is a huge advantage in South Africa. This is a must-win game for the Lions for they have a bye in Round 18 so in effect only have two games left compared to the other serious contenders who have three
The Lions will seek to exploit Waratahs scrum and the lineout, the strength of which has been weakened by the suspensions.
The Stormers currently lead the South African conference on 38 points but are fighting it out with the Lions (36) and the Bulls (35) to maintain that leadership. The Stormers should win their match against the Cheetahs in Newland stadium in Cape Town this weekend.
The Highlanders and the Chiefs will be another absorbing spectacle this weekend in Invercargill, once famously described in 1965 by rock singer Keith Richards of the Rolling Stones as the “arsehole of the world”.
Whether or not one agrees with that not too flattering description, there is no doubt that Invercargill will come alive with this match. The Chiefs are still a dark horse for the title this year and I believe they will start firing on all cylinders as they come into the business end of the season.
The Highlanders will put up one hell of a fight as they only sit one point behind the Chiefs, but may just lack the firepower to get home.
A loss to either side is not fatal to their semi-final chances but make it that little bit harder, should the teams below them pull off some wins.
The Force play the Reds in a dead rubber, although I would expect the Reds to win this match.
Excluding bonus points, on my predictions, this is how the table may look after Round 16
1 Hurricanes 57
2 Brumbies 42
3 Stormers 42
4 Chiefs 48
5 Highlanders43
6 Waratahs 41
7 Lions 40
8 Bulls 35
9 Crusaders 35
10 Rebels 30
11 Sharks 29
12 Cheetahs 20
13 Blues 20
14 Reds 21
15 Force 15
Alex L
Roar Rookie
Do the Stormers still have players they need to rest? Wouldn't think they'd want to be resting anyone they could avoid resting, given they need two wins and will miss the Qualifying Final week if they do that. Could foul up their continuity if there's a rest week, then the Sharks, then another rest week.
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Mate, I will try and stay up for that match... live is infinitely better than watching a replay ... that 's like kissing your sister..
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Chris ... Invercargill might be the “arsehole of the world” (according to your article) but I bet that Tay and Lay Streets would have been humming.... then of course down that far south, one is very close to Stewart Island, home of the dredge "Bluff Oysters", one that challenges the French "Belon" ... All I can say is that Keith Richards probably did not like oysters!
Harry Jones
Expert
Yes, mathematically, the Stormers will take 2nd place if they get 9 points from the last two rounds. No matter what the 2 OZ teams do. Because of superior win total. So, the plan against the Lions has to be to win and score 4 tries. The goal is to be able to rest a couple of guys in the last round. Looking forward to Jaco Kriel vs Schalk Burger.
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Well good luck ... not going to be easy, I think next week Tah's could get 5 (they've lost a few through suspension and play at altitude so maybe a chance for an upset?), their last game might be interesting though against a resurgent Reds. Brumbies will get 5 against Force but their last match against Crusaders is a toss of a coin even at home. To finish 2nd I think your Stormers will need to beat Lions and Sharks and as long as Tah's (most likely) do not win with 2 BPs, your guys will secure that home semi. Will be interesting last couple rounds.
Harry Jones
Expert
Exactly. The Stormers will have plenty to do, in these two derbies. Look for the Sharks game to be a real slugfest. The Tahs can score 40+ in Bloem. Brumbies have tougher task. Right now, I predict the Stormers take 2nd, by the skin of their underpants.
Rugby Tragic
Guest
If that was how it ended up after round 18 - the QF would be between Brumbies v Waratahs (in Sydney) and 'Landers v Chiefs under the roof in Dunedin. Then Hurricanes would play lowest qualifier in Hamilton and Stormers would play highest qualifier in SA
Rugby Tragic
Guest
yep that is because of the conference system
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Mind you Stomers banana skin might be Sharks at Kings Park as well as the challenge from the Lion, huh?
Rugby Tragic
Guest
Congratulations Harry... big, big win. To qualify for home semi, your guys need now to hold off the challenge from the Tahs and Brumbies for the all important No 2 spot (No 1 is out of sight!) in your own game!... I suppose you will be barracking for Cheetahs against Waratahs and Crusaders against Brumbies in the fortnight! ..
The Mountain
Guest
Highlanders lacking firepower??? what??
WEST
Roar Guru
I gave up trying to figure it out... Currently it sits like this???? Hurricanes57 Stormers43 Waratahs 42 Highlanders 48 Chiefs44 Brumbies42
Harry Jones
Expert
42-12 Stormers! So it's a big Lions match
Graeme
Guest
Keith stoned. Never
Graeme
Guest
I'm a bit late replying to this, since the game is over. But I would have predicted a 20 point victory to the Reds before the game. It was a match between a very well coached team of nobodies and a very badly coached team of stars. But JC's "mentoring" has meant that the Reds have had a game plan for the last 3 weeks and appear to be playing less far away from their potential.
Harry Jones
Expert
Barn burner! 16-7! Keep scoring, guys! I want a 50-40 score line
Harry Jones
Expert
16-0 Stormers after 18:00 Need Three More Tries
Harry Jones
Expert
Traveling, so I couldn't attend or blog the WP-FS game at Newlands. Stormers already up 10-0, I notice, from Twitter. 6 minutes, 10 points. Keep that up and it'll get interesting re that home semi final (Go Lions)
tim
Guest
"Excluding bonus points, on my predictions, this is how the table may look after Round 16"
Loopi&Hardie
Guest
Love & peace?