Where State of Origin 2 will be won and lost

Melbourne, Victoria. The second match of the 2015 State of Origin series will be won or lost in Melbourne, Victoria.

Boom-tish.

Now that we have that silliness out of the way, it’s time to seriously analyse Origin 2.

STATE OF ORIGIN LIVE SCORES – GAME 2

Both teams face adversity heading into this game, with Queensland without their general, Cooper Cronk, who will miss the game due to a knee injury he suffered playing against the Penrith Panthers.

Meanwhile, a number of NSW players will be under pressure, knowing they may effectively be playing for their Origin careers.

More:
» State of Origin Game 2 Preview
» State of Origin Game 2 Teams
» State of Origin Fixture
» State of Origin

Just a solitary point separated the states in the opening game in Sydney, and this match is sure to be another tight affair as the Blues try to square the series, while the Maroons seek to win it.

So where will the match be won or lost?

Queensland will win if…
They back their ability, and play up to it.

It’s hard to fault Mal Meninga’s gameplan in the opening match, considering Queensland won, but I will anyway: the Maroons played a little too conservatively, considering the weapons they have in their arsenal.

Queensland adopted a strategy that was very simple, and in response to the team NSW had picked; in terms of the Blues being forward-heavy. The Maroons decided they were going to match NSW in the forwards, hold their own up front, and then let field position and patience win them the game.

Solid thinking. Great execution.

However, if I have Ferraris and Rolls Royces parked in the garage, I’m not taking the bulldozer out for a spin. Mal should unleash the talent that is Billy Slater, Greg Inglis, Johnathan Thurston, Will Chambers, etc.

I’m not suggesting Queensland should suddenly start throwing the ball around irresponsibly and being totally cavalier. This is Origin after all, and it will be a tough, hard-fought battle. However the Maroons could play with just a little more freedom in attack.

Perhaps more second-phase play. Some shallower attacking kicks. Occasionally playing Inglis at fullback for a couple of kick returns. Running the ball on the fifth tackle.

Anything slightly unpredictable, while utilising some of the unique talents the team has at its disposal.

If they do, Queensland will be pleasantly surprised by just how few points NSW have in them.

Queensland will lose if…
They relax mentally.

The Maroons can’t approach this game with anything less than a ‘go for the kill’ attitude. If they drop just one per cent in intensity, focus or desire, the Blues will win. Origin encounters are just far too close to even be a touch off your game.

Yet there have already been a few little excuses creeping out of Queensland mouths explaining why they may lose this game.

“Cooper Cronk is injured. We’ve still got Game 3 at Suncorp. The powerbrokers won’t want a dead rubber in Brisbane, considering how expensive tickets are – so they’ll make sure NSW win this game.”

To be fair, these comments have not emanated out of the Maroons camp, but rather from some of their supporters. Yet it still highlights a slightly defeatist attitude, and if the players themselves approach Origin 2 with any semblance of similar thoughts, the Blues will win.

Mind you, this is State of Origin and Queensland we’re talking about, so that’s a pretty big ‘if’.

NSW will win if…
Their bench shows up.

The Blues forwards were pretty good in the first 30 minutes of Game 1, but once Aaron Woods and James Tamou had a rest – and Robbie Farah was injured – the Blues lost momentum, along with control of the middle of the park.

The importance of a strong platform established by your forward pack does not need to be emphasised to any rugby league fan, and said platform withered away for NSW when their starting props had a rest.

NSW’s bench was much vaunted heading into the game – particularly by me – yet they were disappointing in Sydney. They lacked any real impact, and wasted the good work that had been done before them.

I expect Woods and Tamou to once again be strong early on, and with the return of Paul Gallen to the starting side, the Blues pack should dominate early.

If NSW’s bench – and Laurie Daley’s use of it – can ensure there is little let-up when the starters have a breather, the Blues will be in a very good position to win the game.

One suggestion would be to ensure the interchange forwards actually run onto the ball. Standing flat-footed with no depth, and then trying to out-muscle defenders with your strength may work in the juniors or against weaker opposition at club level, but it’s not going to work in Origin. You’ll get monstered, no matter how big and athletic you may be.

NSW will lose if…
Thurston is allowed to take control of proceedings.

Though many Queenslanders like to rightfully point out how important Cronk is to the Maroons – and are therefore nervous about his absence – the flipside of him not being available to play is that it may force Thurston to lift his involvement.

JT was a little quiet in Game 1, and although New South Welshmen would like to believe that it was due to Beau Scott’s defence, Thurston’s post-match interview suggested that it may have instead been a concerted effort from the Cowboy playmaker to not overplay his hand and ‘keep it simple, stupid’.

With Cronk not playing, and Daly Cherry-Evans yet to fully find his feet at Origin level, Thurston may take it upon himself to take charge of the Maroons and really leave his imprint on the game.

With his ability and the form he’s in, that’s actually a major concern for NSW.

Cronk’s injury may end up being a blessing in disguise, should it see the best player in the game decide that it’s on his shoulders to lead Queensland to victory.