Friday Night Forecast: Swans midfield under the microscope

Sydney get another taste of prime time on this week’s Friday night football.

Richmond make the journey north for the second leg of their Friday double header, to take on a Swans side gliding ever so elegantly under the radar.

When I made my tips yesterday I said if you think the Tigers will lose, tip the win; and vice versa. It’s a little more complicated than that, but of all the places to start…

I wish I’d taken that advice when making last week’s Friday Night Forecast.

Prediction: Richmond to defeat West Coast by six points.
Actual: Richmond defeated by West Coast by 20 points.

As ever, the astute Roar commenters nailed it: Richmond were crushed not by West Coast – although they did get slapped around a bit – but by the weight of expectation.

The Tigers were on a mini-roll, with a victory against West Coast possibly putting them in the frame for a top-four finish. And, well, primetime under lights. Yep, it was the perfect set of circumstances for a Tigers turn up.

Is it different this week? Let’s find out.

Here’s this week’s Friday Night Forecast.

Sydney Swans vs Richmond Tigers
Friday, 26 June
Bouncedown: 7:50PM (EST)
Sydney Cricket Ground

What comes next for the Swans?

The 2012 grand final victor, and 2014 loser, barely rate a mention in the list of teams headed to the promised land this season. This is despite sitting third on the ladder (with a game in hand over the second placed West Coast Eagles), and the game’s second best defence.

Is it a return to a more pedestrian offence? The Swans haven’t broken out of a jog ahead of the ball so far this season, ranking sixth in points per game (90.5). That’s despite my findings from earlier in the year that Sydney have been among the league’s most damaging scorers when key forwards Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippett share the field.

But it’s not their fault: Franklin (34) and Tippett (21) are on pace for a 110-goal season as a duo, which is down on their first year together (3.1 per game) but is still among the most potent in the league. No, it’s the midfield, which seems to have lost some of the potency the league had become accustomed to.

Sydney’s core 10 midfielders are averaging 20 per cent fewer goals per game (4.5 v 5.6) in 2015 compared to 2014, with broader scoring potency down 15 per cent. This is despite the group winning about seven per cent more possessions per game than their collective 2014 selves.

Whether this is by design or due to their opposition remains to be seen. Most other midfield KPIs have remained broadly the same – suggesting it may in fact be a conscious choice of the brains trust.

A dip in forward 50 conversion (from 45.9 per cent of inside 50 entries converted to scores to 44.8 per cent) is also suggestive it’s a scheme thing.

It’s not going to get much easier for the Swans this week, with Richmond’s Swiss Army knife defender Alex Rance looking like a strong match up on Buddy. By my count they’ve played on each other five times, with Franklin winning thrice (bags of five, five and four) and Rance twice (holding Franklin to one goal in both 2012 and 2013). It’s worth noting the match result has gone the way of the victor of this contest on all five occasions.

Franklin got the wood over Rance last season, kicking four goals despite Rance having an insane 15 spoils. It’s worth noting Tippett didn’t play in the Round 14 showdown, leaving Franklin as the lone forward threat (sorry, Sam). Franklin, Tippett and Sam Reid look set to suit up tonight, which may complicate things for the Tigers.

Despite their midfield scoring troubles, this one has Sydney written all over it. Richmond’s new found love of team defence may blunt the Swans attack, but there’s a reason why Buddy is the best key forward in the game.

What I’m saying is, Richmond aren’t expected to win. And so they’re in with an almighty chance.

I’m not a spiritual guy, so I’ll default to logic, and pick the Swans by 18 points.

That’s my Friday Night Forecast. What’s yours?