Right…
Well, last week’s AFL tipping was not an unmitigated disaster, but the Blues getting their first win of the season and the Demons showing what their list has to offer certainly spoiled what many saw as an easy round.
Also, Cam Rose picked Richmond for the first time in many weeks, and for the first time in many weeks, they went down to the West Coast Eagles.
Can they upset Sydney this week? We can be almost 100% sure that Cam will be picking Sydney.
In fact, it seems like the experts are surprisingly monotone this week. Oh well.
Sean Lee, along with The Crowd, fared the best last weekend, so let’s start with him.
Sean Lee
Tips: Fremantle, Sydney, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Carlton
Fremantle to defeat Collingwood: This game will give us a good idea of where Collingwood are actually placed coming into the second half of the season. They don’t have to win, but they do have to put up a good show – otherwise the doubters will still be doubters.
Sydney to defeat Richmond: Richmond have been good in recent weeks but are now butting heads with the league’s elite teams. Unfortunately for the Tigers they are about to lose two in a row.
Hawthorn to defeat Essendon: We have all been guilty of overrating Essendon’s list, but the Bombers still aren’t as bad as the way they have been playing. They can reboot their season but it won’t be this week.
Adelaide to defeat Brisbane: The Crows need a good, solid win and it should come this week. They are clinging to the top eight by their fingertips and need to escape the log jam of teams battling for a finals position.
Western Bulldogs to defeat St. Kilda: Ditto for the Western Bulldogs. They are out of the eight by percentage only and need to rediscover their early season vibrancy if they want to make an impact in September.
Carlton to defeat Gold Coast: Who would have thought that the Blues would have been gunning for two wins in a row? Well they are, and they should do it to! If they bring the desperation and commitment that they showed last week they will win. Simple as that!
Cam Rose
Tips: Fremantle, Sydney, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Bulldogs, Carlton
Fremantle v Collingwood: The Dockers didn’t have their best three weeks coming into the bye, and should come out hard and dog-hungry after it. The Pies have been streaky within games, despite winning their last four. I think they’ll be exposed here. Fremantle by 32 points.
Sydney v Richmond: The Tigers should be stung after last weeks loss to the Eagles, given they didn’t produce their best against a quality side. They do travel well in recent times, but they’ll need to. Some might say the Swans are due for a loss, and if they come out a bit off their game after the bye, Richmond can be right in it. But don’t count on that happening, in what should be a low-scoring, defensively strong game. Sydney by 21 points.
Hawthorn v Essendon: The Hawks should move into the top four with victory here, and they showed last week that they’re taking things seriously now after a few soft losses earlier in the season. The bye came at the right time for a shot Bombers, and surely they’ll come out of it playing better footy, but it’s hard to make a case for a win here. Hawthorn by 41 points.
Brisbane v Adelaide: The Crows were pretty good against the Hawks, while the Lions once more dropped off badly last week, this time against the Dogs. This should be a case of one way traffic, but an upset isn’t out of the equation. Adelaide by 34 points.
St Kilda v Western Bulldogs: Didn’t these two play about 10 minutes ago? Certainly that amazing Saints turnaround feels like it’s from the very recent past. The Dogs should be able to get the job done properly this time. Bulldogs by 25 points.
Carlton v Gold Coast: The Blues are in a Barker-led renaissance of sorts, while the son of God has risen again to lead the Suns into battle. It won’t surprise if the visitors sprung a surprise victory here, but I’ll play it safe with the home side. Carlton by 15 points.
Ryan Buckland
Tips: Fremantle, Sydney, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Carlton
So, ummm, last week hey? Two genuine upsets, and three other home team losses, made it a difficult one to break above the 0.500 mark. I’m still approximately 39 tips behind the sagely Cam Rose, and with 96 games remaining time is running out to get in a groove.
This week, let’s make the case for the underdogs! Most of this week’s favourites on the market are quite clear, which is the perfect precondition for a bunch of upsets. Or it’s the perfect precondition for a 6/6 round. Dammit this tipping thing is hard.
Collingwood travel to Domain Stadium to take on a more mortal Dockers team than one which mushed the ‘Roos by 73 points in Round 8. Perfect time for the Pies to pounce. Or swoop, as it were. Travis Cloke will probably beat Luke McPharlin comfortably one-on-one, so the help will have to come, making the role of Collingwood’s other forwards crucial. Who am I kidding: Fyfe, Mundy and Neale will destroy the Pies midfield, so it won’t matter. Hey, I tried!
Richmond, under lights, on a Friday night? Clearly a recipe for disaster. But are they expected to beat the Swans? If you think yes, this is a loss. If you think no, tip the win. That’s what Richmond are. Never change, Richmond.
Essendon beat the Hawks in Round 2. Remember that? They can do it again. What’s that about Hawthorn’s average winning margin of 63 points versus an average losing margin of six points? Nah that doesn’t mean anything. James Hird MBA will tell you so.
Brisbane host the Crows, and you know what that means? Super fan engagement mode, activate! Brion the Lion will come out to play. More seriously though, the Crows are 1-3 in their past four, scoring just 81 points per game while conceding 95. Could the Lions do it in the twilight slot? It’s possible. Not likely, but possible.
Another cracking bye round Saturday night match up sees the Dogs and Saints face off. I’m being a bit harsh – this game pits two of the league’s rising sides against each other, under the dome, on a Saturday night. Shame we’ll have to listen to the two headed monstrosity that is BT and LD – when’s that next broadcast agreement kicking in?
This one could very well be game of the week; if the Dogs win they likely end the first half inside the eight; if the Saints win, well, they could overtake the Dons. It could be error prone, it could be scrappy, but I have a feeling it’ll be a close contest all night. There’s no underdog here.
Carlton-Suns? As the standalone Sunday game? Maybe if it were overlapping with Day 1 of the Ashes. The Blues are starting to play more modern footy, while the Suns welcome back SOG, GAJ.
If fully fit, he is probably the difference in this game. Wouldn’t it be amazing, but also an indictment on his team mates, if Ablett comes in, gathers 40 possessions, 12 clearances and kicks four goals, and gets the Suns their second win? Don’t rule it out, sports fans.
| Round 12 | Cam | Ryan | Sean | The Crowd |
| FRE v COL | FRE | FRE | FRE | FRE |
| SYD v RIC | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD |
| HAW v ESS | HAW | HAW | HAW | HAW |
| BRI v ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE | ADE |
| STK v WB | WB | WB | WB | WB |
| CAR v GC | CAR | CAR | CAR | CAR |
| LAST ROUND | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| OVERALL | 67 | 62 | 66 | 70 |
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