With the Ashes a couple of weeks away the Australian cricket selectors have some tough questions to answer, not least the make-up and balance of the bowling attack.
Australia will likely go into the frist Test with three quicks and Nathan Lyon as the spinner, with help from the part-timers.
Looking at the quicks one thing is for sure, barring multiple injuries to other bowlers Peter Siddle will not play in the first Test. His last six Tests have netted just 12 wickets at 52 a pop. He is making up the numbers.
Two of the quicks should be a lock.
Ryan Harris has been set for these Ashes a long way out and when fit is an automatic selection. With his pace and aggression mixed with a nagging line and length, he is the first chosen.
Although his last 12 months have not been his best, his overall record speaks for itself: 27 matches for 113 wickets at 23.52 with an economy rate of 2.78. You have yourself a complete bowling package there.
Even if Harris is not taking wickets, his frugality wears at a batsman’s patience, softening them up for others.
Josh Hazlewood is the other automatic selection. The sky is the limit for him. Although it’s early days in his career, he is already building an imposing record: five Tests for a return of 24 wickets at 19 with an economy rate of 2.5. Some are calling him Glen McGrath mark II. That may be a big call but his first-class record of 119 wickets at under 24 point towards it.
With his metronomic style and imposing 196 cm frame, the English wickets will only suit him further. I’m predicting bowler of the series if Australia win.
The third spot is where the selection dilemma lies.
Mitchell Johnson is the obvious choice. In the last series against England he terrorised the batsmen and put in a performance reminiscent of Dennis Lillee at his best. Sending down blistering 150kph thunderbolts, the English had no answers as he took 37 wickets at under 14 apiece for the series.
He single-handedly dismantled the English to send them home with their tails between their legs. Johnson’s record against the English in Australia is fantastic. 57 wickets at 20.
Surely he would be the first picked?
However when you dig a little deeper some cracks start to appear. When in England his performance goes from chocolates to boiled lollies: 20 wickets at 32 and an economy rate of above four runs an over. Not only does he struggle to take wickets but his economy rate goes through the roof. Australia’s success over the last 25 years has largely been down to bowling in partnerships and creating pressure. In England he simply doesn’t do that.
Also, where has his pace gone? From regularly hitting 150kph and being a match winner in the previous Ashes, his pace has significantly dropped to averaging in the low 140s, making him a toothless tiger. Sure the English may be psychologically damaged from the last series but at his current pace I’m not sure how long that will remain a factor.
With his lack of penetration due to his loss of pace and his high economy rate, this Ashes could be a disaster for Johnson if he doesn’t turn it around. And at 33 time is not his friend.
The other Mitch, the Starc variety, has had an inauspicious start to his Test career and has been dropped more times than not, rarely playing consecutive Tests. His overall stats are not all that impressive either: 17 matches for 60 wickets at 32. But the selectors have seen something in him and the Australian public are starting to see it too.
His recent form has been phenomenal. He took 22 wickets at 10 in his eight matches in the World Cup and took multiple wickets in every game. In the West Indies he took 10 wickets at 16 apiece.
Perhaps the Mitch Starc we have all been waiting for has finally arrived. His wicket balls have always been there but it is his consistency that is improving. Utilising the extra swing of the Duke ball at pace will very much suit his game. At 25 he is in the prime of his career and looks set to explode.
The conservative approach is to pick Johnson. But being conservative is not part of the make-up of Australian cricket.
Starc should play in the first Test and we should leave the conservative decisions to the Poms.
Terry Kidd
Guest
Its an easy selection because Harris is not fit, rued out of the Essex game and therefore cannot prove he can play a full test match. He should not have bee selected for the tour.
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
You reckon it will be like last Ashes where Starc got the fun chance to play on all the roads and then got dropped for the matches where there might be something in it for the fast bowlers?
Chris Kettlewell
Roar Guru
Actually, Shane Warne has well and truly changed his tune on Starc. He's now basically saying he should be a guaranteed selection and is the most destructive fast bowler on the planet. Johnson had a bad tour of England once on the back of some really tough off-field issues. Those are long-gone. Sounds like someone desperately hoping the Aussie bowlers can flop because they want England to win but secretly know they are going to get pulverised by the Australian battery of quicks.
Timothy Schuster
Guest
Cardiff is a road. There is no way in a million years Harris will be picked. Johnno, Hazelwood, Starc, Lyon. Harris will come in at Lords.
Don Freo
Guest
Clickbait?
Tom from Perth
Roar Rookie
Do I recall that you were against rotation, Bear?
Tom from Perth
Roar Rookie
What a bloody downer you are... You can pick holes in any bowler in test cricket. Why not look at the positives?
Broken-hearted Toy
Guest
The Kent commentators were talking about how frightening it looked from the comm box late in the afternoon, so he must have been bowling bloody fast on a slow wicket.
Tom from Perth
Roar Rookie
Haha nice. I think Harris is a Formula One...
deccas
Guest
from the reports i've read it sound like Mitch was bowling serious heat. The Kent batsman that made a score said "I'm not paid enough to face that guy, and I do alright". Mitch was obviously bowling well within himself against both the windies and india over the summer. Mitch bowling fast is clearly a horrible prospect to face, so its a matter of Harris getting himself into form.
Howzat
Guest
Johnson is the canary in the coalmine of Australian cricket.
Jameswm
Guest
Starc gets good reverse. He swings it for a lot more than 10 overs.
Jo M
Guest
The old Johnson that had off field issues may have been mentally fragile in England, the new one is far from mentally fragile.
Sideline Comm.
Guest
At least we have talent on paper. More than England can say.
CW
Guest
Mitch Johnson showed last nite in southern England that he does not intend giving up his spot in the test site without a battle. The fact he had the Kent batsmen ducking and weaving on a docile pitch must have pleased CA heirarchy no end. Johnson took full advantage at being given first bite of the cherry to impress Rod and Boof, over fellow candidate Mitchell Starc. After a moderate tour of the West indies. Johnson looks back to his fearsome best. But will it be enough to sway selectors views over the make up of the first test. In my view, Hazlewood and Starc remain the two most favorable bowlers for Cardiff. Johnson, though has made up some ground. A big haul in this match may change things.
Sideline Comm.
Guest
Well if the current match is anything to go by, I'd say Johnson is a lock now, and Harris is struggling. He didn't get any wickets yesterday, and not many in the other match he played in either. We might see the same attack we say in the Caribbean. Watson also struggled, but then Marsh didn't do much better. But hopefully they take a punt on the latter.
sheek
Roar Guru
Tom, I thought awhile about whether I ought to respond to this post, which unintentionally or otherwise, smacks of click-bait. Anyway, I've bitten. Fortunately, Darren Lehmann is a smart man & he will go with the recent form trio - Mitchell Johnson, Mitchell Starc & Josh Hazlewood. Johnson is the senior man, & his form hasn't fallen so dramatically that his place as the senior man, & the respect that goes with it, ought to be questioned. Ryan Harris faces the challenge of all aging fastmen, trying to get tired & busted limbs quickly working again in good order. A bit of historical background. The tremendously respected Windies fastman Andy Roberts carried the Caribbean attack for the first few years of his career, circa 1974-77, being gradually joined by Mike Holding (75/76), Colin Croft & Joel Garner (both 77). Each addition appeared marginally better than the original. By 1983, Roberts' place in the team had come under severe pressure, at the age of only 32. Malcolm Marshall, at 25, had been banging on the door for a number of years, having made his test debut during the WSC days back in 1979. Marshall would go on to prove he was the best of the five fastmen mentioned. Croft accepted South African rebel money, while Roberts made way often for lesser quality pacemen & the odd spinner. But he was nevertheless, revered by his fellow players, especially his fellow pacemen. Mitch Johnson is getting on, & will eventually have to yield. But in this day & age, a 34 year old test player still has some years in his pocket. Johnson has earned the respect as the elder statesman of the pace attack. His time is not yet done. For Ryan Harris, a few years older, father time & the ravages of the body, are calling loudly.
Bearfax
Guest
We've got four top shelf fast bowlers. We know they get injured easily. Best option is to spread the load for the first two or three tests and then play your best on tour for the final two. Give each a test off, play two spinners in a test best suited for it,. Spread the load. There are no turkeys amongst this group of bowlers, fast and spin, so the risks are reduced. And the risk of injury is reduced a little. Five tests is a long haul.
Michael
Roar Rookie
It wouldn't be conservative to pick Johnson, it would be stupid not to.
Pat Malone
Guest
Hazel wood is going to miss out