Less than a month ago I suggested that while Port Adelaide were many rungs off the top teams on the ladder, they still had the potential to make the top four. But alas, two more weeks for two more losses, and the Power will be hoping for September football of any type at this stage.
So who will step in and fill the void they leave. And are they good enough to trouble the big three of Sydney, Hawthorn and Fremantle?
The three likely candidates are the West Coast Eagles, somehow still getting under the radars of many despite sitting second on the ladder, the Richmond Tigers, who notched wins over the Swans and Dockers in successive rounds, and we can’t forget Collingwood.
Yes, Collingwood. There are plenty of arguments as to why they aren’t a serious contender: notably the fact their eight wins have all come against teams below them on the ladder and ones they are expected to beat.
But their two losses in the past two weeks told me that while they aren’t quite there yet, the Pies are getting very close to being one of the elite teams.
Collingwood sit just one game out of the top four, and while they don’t have an easy run home (they meet Sydney and the West Coast), they have plenty of winnable matches.
The Pies are doing all the little things right at the moment, all the effort things, it’s just execution in some areas which is costing them, and that could snap into place at any time.
To get within 10 points of the defending premiers, a week after running Fremantle to a seven points in Perth, says a lot about the Magpies, and while that 2015 big scalp still awaits, if I was the Eagles or Swans fans, I’d be a little concerned.
What about the Eagles? I know they only beat Melbourne on the weekend but the Dees have improved, and considering the extreme emotional side of the situation, for West Coast to produce was impressive.
The Eagles have been rolling along, winning both away and at home, but their litmus test is to come. In a five-week stretch they meet Collingwood away, then Sydney, Hawthorn, and Fremantle in Perth. Survive that and stay in the top four and we’ll be taking about the Eagles as legitimate too.
Then there’s the Tigers.
Oh the Tigers. Getting up and beating the big guns is one thing, as they did against Freo and Sydney, but getting the job done in tough conditions, and winning “ugly” as coach Damien Hardwick put it, is another.
It keeps the Tigers moving in the right direction, and shows they might be a bit stronger mentally now in not switching off and dropping games they shouldn’t as sometimes they did in the past.
They have Fremantle, Hawthorn and Collingwood to come, but only leave Victoria once in their final nine games.
At the moment you can get around $8.50 about the Eagles, and $17 about the other pair, and while I’m not for one minute saying the trio are as good as the ‘other’ trio, funny things happen in football, and there’s a lot of footy to be played before September arrives.
Macca
Guest
Yeah Don he meant Freo, Richmond & North -despite the fact that the conversation explicitly states "their midfield is in the same class as Sydney, Freo or Hawthorns" and the odds of both North and Richmond making the top 4 from here are ridiculously high. HOw do you see North getting above Sydney given they have to make up 4 wins and 37% in just 9 rounds.
New York Hawk
Guest
Corretc DC, I am in the BS trade.
Don Freo
Guest
It is well and truly better than Sydney's and a lot deeper than Hawthorn's. If by , "the other 3", you mean Freo, NM and Richmond, yeah, not as good as Freo's mids but way better than Richmond and North.
Don Freo
Guest
WC will finish second.
Dalgety Carrington
Roar Guru
I'm guessing you're in the finance trade NYH?
New York Hawk
Guest
Ok Don, we agree. My suspicion is that the amazing accuracy of Gunston and Bruest, combined with the all-field presence and goal kicking of Roughie meant we kicked bigger scores than we would on average and got home in closer games. Either we are down this year from our average and will mean-revert, or we are currently mean-reverting. It doesn't take much to drop off the pace and goal kicking accuracy is crucial. Collingwood was the first game we had less scoring shots than the opposition but we won, whereas we lost four games where we had more. Interesting items ahead starting on Sunday and I'm not convinced we are a lock for the top four just yet.
Macca
Guest
Apparently they think Gibbs had a "skip step" that meant he mad his takcle in 2 motions, although when you look at Schulz's you clearly see him tackle take both feet off the ground then plant them and sling Richards into the ground - the only difference is that Gray had more momentum up when tackled so he carrid gibbs a little further in the tackle before Gibbs put him down - that and Gray could have actually come back on. David King has apparently backed the decision becuase there was no sling and Schultz almost ended up beneath Richards - the only explanation for that opinion is that he is looking at the wrong footage.
Don Freo
Guest
You are over reading. I have made no claim that Freo will win the flag. There is more than one team in the comp and it only takes a loss...that's how it works. There is only one thing I have suggested here. Hawthorn is not that good this year.
New York Hawk
Guest
'Tis true, I struggle to understand your logic. The only reasons I read are the weak ones you put up to justify why Freo has already won the 2015 flag. Your team needs to kick a score at some point and to date they seem incapable of doing so. Good luck with that. Correct me if I am wrong, but i think Hawthorn has won as many (or more) finals in the last two years as Freo has in its existence. To translate for you - Hawks know how to win finals, Freo doesn't.
Don Freo
Guest
Well, I expect you read those reasons before you wrote your response. I won't repost it. The Australian Embassy in New York can translate if you're struggling.
New York Hawk
Guest
Well, when Frawley wasn't injured he kept Buddy scoreless, but you probably think Buddy is a poor-man's Pav and so don't rate that. I presume you mean Gunston should have won the Norm Smith in 2013 as you surely can't mean a Freo player? I think Gunston will mean-revert to the great player he is before year end. But I do want to make sure ou aren't referring to Pav as the player who should have won the Norm Smith? As for defending Ballantyne, I think it is a must during the regular season and a complete waste of time in big games. Loved his performance in 2013 GF and last year's finals. As for Walters, he is a genuine threat but he is your only genuine threat in that forward line. We will be able to contain that. Not sure you have ever seen Burgoyne play, but if you watch a Hawks game, get back to me on how many times he gets beaten one-on-one. Oh, you might watch a Hawks game this week... Whether McPharlin has ever been beaten in his career is irrelevant as I can only assume he was beaten by someone at Hawthorn all those times we have kicked 20 goals on you and won by 10 goals. And if he wasn't, then all the more power to him and all the more shame on the rest of your backline and midfield. If we win on the weekend, when we are in the worst form we have been in since Round 7 2010, then Freo has no chance in September. And yes, I get it is being played in Tassie. But I look forward to hearing all the reasons why I am wrong...
Don Freo
Guest
There's only one old bloke in the whole Freo defense and he has not been beaten all year...or at all in his whole career. He will be an AA key defender this year with Talia the only one who comes close. (Rance has conceded more than 3 goals 4 or 5 times this year.).
Don Freo
Guest
Well, Frawley is perennially injured and just average anyway and Gibson is geriatric and slow. 2013 was quite some time ago and Lake played only one good quarter for that medal. The bloke who should have won it is having quite a poor year. All in all, you really would be justified in being concerned...but you don't have to be. If Hodge and Burgoyne are going to try to defend Walters and Ballantyne...bring it on. Both are unaccountable defensively.
jax
Guest
yes it wasn't WC's best day but that's understandable under the circumstances. 18 of the 22 that played on Saturday knew Phil Walsh as their strategy coach. He was at WC for 5 years so it's safe to say that he knew those players (and they knew him) as well anyone. Don't under-estimate the impact that his passing the day before this game had on WC. Port, WC and the Crows are cut pretty deep atm I'm sure.
New York Hawk
Guest
I'm not sure we are getting warmed up, but hope we are. I worry that our hunger and even that 1% skill level difference we have had in the last couple of years is not there. As for the "geriatric defense" Don, I wouldn't be so quick to judge given he (assume you mean Lake) won a Norm Smith against your boys in 2013. And why include Shoenmakers and Suckling in your line-up and leave out Gibson and Frawley? And you should include Hodge and Burgoyne in that list before S & S, and they know a thing or two about performing in big games. Now that is a defense any team would beg for. And while I'm at it, it is incredibly rich for someone who barracks for Freo to call someone else's defense geriatric.
Malahka
Guest
Saw the WC game live and from ground level there were some very basic mistakes. Melb weren't good enough to capitalise and made even more basic mistakes( like kicking directly to an opponent). Melb faded very badly in the last q which WC then took full advantage of. Still think WC are a lock for top 4 tho
John Fedec
Guest
Michael, has it ever occurred to you that Hawthorn might not finish TOP 4 ???? They may well lose this Sunday and that will be put them at a 9-5 with NO chance for TOP 2 and an outside chance for the 4 ! So, this Sunday, they really can't afford to lose !
Macca
Guest
Mattyb- Don brought it up mate not me. And congrats on yet another completely irrelevant contribution.
Jesse
Guest
Agreed, freo are playing at about 60% atm.
mattyb
Guest
Lol Macca you sound like a six year old school girl."ew Don,you've been banned,your such a naughty boy" Big deal Macca,it is now irrelevant,it's done,it's ancient history,let it go.