Mid-morning Thursday, Australian Eastern Standard Time. That will be when we find out the Wallabies’ 23-man squad to take on South Africa at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane on Saturday night, the first match of The Rugby Championship.
It will also mark the first steps on the road to the Rugby World Cup in England later this year.
It will be a significant moment not just for where the Wallabies are heading in 2015. Thursday’s team announcement will mark the first time Wallabies coach Michael Cheika has been able to name a team from a squad he selected.
When Cheika took on the Wallabies gig late last year, he had to run with Ewen McKenzie’s European Tour squad and try and fashion a ‘Cheika team’ from the deck of cards he’d been handed.
On Thursday, he finally gets the chance to deal the cards in the order he wants them, from a deck he assembled himself, and on home turf. Nine months into the Wallabies job, Cheika finally gets to lay his own cards out on the table.
After so much speculation, and will he or won’t he pick this guy or that guy murmurs, we’ll get an idea of the way Cheika wants to shape the Wallabies.
Of course, in trimming the initial 40-man squad back to 31 on Friday afternoon we have been able to narrow things down somewhat, even if we’re no closer to curtailing the ‘Pocock or Hooper?’ debate that’s ruminated since February.
I’m far from convinced that Michael Hooper being named as one of Stephen Moore’s deputies locks him into the starting side. If the previous coach had no issue with a vice-captain playing on the wing, then it’s really not that big a leap to having a vice-captain off the bench.
Though we may never know if it was seriously on the cards, the omission of Queensland centre Samu Kerevi means we can almost certainly rule out the big-carrying power-runner at 12. With Matt Giteau and Matt Toomua left in the squad, and Kurtley Beale, too, it appears safe to assume Cheika is going to continue with the expansive, wide-running game that his teams have tended to play.
Physical up front and at the breakdown, quick recycle, and spin it wide. If the ‘Australian way’ of playing the game is real and not as mythical as it sometimes feels, then this methodology – this ‘identity’, as Cheika likes to call it – is probably catering to that desire.
It’s fair to say that a Cheika team won’t play 10-man rugby. Not yet, anyway.
That said, there is still the option of playing Tevita Kuridrani and Adam Ashley-Cooper as a centre-pairing, but that really isn’t the Cheika way, and nor does it really fit with how attack coach Stephen Larkham prefers to play the game.
Before he was forced into retirement, it wasn’t often Pat McCabe started games for the Brumbies in the No.12 jersey. If he played in the centres, he was almost always an outside ball-playing 12.
And certainly, all the talk coming from the Sunshine Coast last week was of Matt Giteau running at No.12 outside a Will Genia-Quade Cooper halves pairing. I have to admit, that wouldn’t be the worst – but it’s been a while since we have seen those men all line up together.
You have to go all the way back to the end of 2010 to find the last time they started as the Wallabies’ 9-10-12. Australia beat New Zealand in Hong Kong, then went to Cardiff and thumped Wales, before Toby Flood’s seven penalties saw England home at Twickenham.
Giteau was benched the following week as Australia beat France 59-16 in Paris.
Interestingly, those sides all featured Drew Mitchell on the left wing, Ashley-Cooper at outside centre, and Beale at fullback. Sub Israel Folau onto the right wing for the unselected James O’Connor, and Cheika could really get the band back, if he so desired.
Regardless, if Cheika’s inside centre selection flows on to whom he picks in the halves – and I do think Giteau or Matt Toomua would work better with Cooper than with Bernard Foley – then there is no doubt his answer to the openside flanker question has a major flow-on for the backrow, and even the entire back five of the pack.
Simply, he can go hard at the breakdown or he can go mobile.
So if Hooper is the preference at No. 7, for the sake of starting somewhere, then that would nearly ensure that Scott Fardy and Ben McCalman – two workrate backrowers to complement Hooper’s running game – are picked at blindside and No.8.
But if Pocock is the answer, then a decent case for Scott Higginbotham at No.8 exists, to utilise his running and ball-carrying game teamed with Pocock over the ball. And you could nearly toss a coin between Fardy and McCalman at blindside. Though if Will Skelton starts at lock, then I think you’d have to go with Fardy for extra cover and a slight lineout edge over McCalman.
And if Skelton does start, then it almost certainly means Rory Arnold won’t. It’s hard to see two rookie locks starting a Test against the Springboks. Rob Simmons would almost certainly get the nod. James Horwill and Dean Mumm are in the frame, too, but I’m just not sure where at the moment. That said, I have this sneaking suspicion Cheika wants to start Arnold and Skelton at some point before the Rugby World Cup.
Up front, I’m really happy to see Greg Holmes still in the mix. And so is he, obviously; I don’t think I’ve seen a picture of him without a massive grin on his face in the last week. Whether he starts or not, I’ve just got a lot more confidence about the scrum. Sio and Holmes, Slipper and Kepu, Sio and Kepu, or Slipper and Holmes; it feels solid whichever way Cheika goes.
Certainly, all the hallmarks of Cheika the selector are there to see in the 31 left. On Thursday, we’ll get to finally see the evolution in the thinking of Cheika the Wallabies coach.
Browny
Roar Rookie
He was definitely a good pickup for the Rebels this season. I'm not sure what his final points tally was but I did have a chuckle about half way through the season when he'd scored more points than the Reds. Did anyone catch the Boks vs Robbies Deans' 'World XV' and catch how he went? His kicking is definitely his strongest attribute, its miles ahead of his running and passing game. Cool head on his shoulders though, tends to make the right decision most of the time. Speaking of Reds acquisitions made by the Rebels, how's them landing Adam Thomson? Wants to play at a club in the up with his old mate Tamati Ellison.
Robo
Guest
Hi everyone,I am not why the coaching staff and ARU have to dump one off the world’s best goal kicker in Mike Harris for consideration into the wallabies or training squad for world cup.We have seen OVER and OVER again wallabies loosing games to the AB,British lions,England when easy kicks at goals are missed.In Rugbu league those kicks would been slotted in by the kickers blinded.Why is ARU going with this mentality that only way to gain fans is to score tries at the expanse off winning games.People naturally dont dont support loosing teams as always people want to be associated with winners hence why NZ the pressure to win is a driving force for the AB.If we score tries and loose a game when kickers cant put the ball between the up rights ,no one would remeber the tries we scored but only we lost the game.Memorable games in which John Eales and Mike Harris have won it for wallabies shows that the kicking department is crucial as the the try scoring department in rugby. Quade copper was never a natural kicker his life but got forced into when he started playing at 10.Mike Harris has been kicking since he was 10 and thats why he is more and accurate at goal shooting to date has still got the longest consecutive strikes at goal without a miss..Wallabies could have been 9 points ahead if those goals penatly kicks were converted.I mean look at the AB ,the have always had good kickers and some times Dan Carter has won the game for single handedly like what Grant Fox usedto do in the past. Can we all campaing to get Mike Harris back at the Wallabies .Cooper is only good enough to be sub substitute full back and not at 10 and may be not even in the team as the tries he creates for oppostion from silly passing cancels any good he creates from his fancy passing .
Crash Ball2
Guest
Great post SC. I'll have a go at covering a few of those themes: George Smith - if you haven't had the opportunity to track his progress in Europe and have little visibility of Smith's current form, you are right to want further evidence. I can assure you the video I provided was the tip of the rugby iceberg for a backrower in rare form (and I have bored a number of posters with my forensic GS diatribe recently) but ultimately, I espouse only that which you suggest yourself: run him in the RC. If Smith doesn't create the required impact: no harm / no foul - we have options. But I'd bet a dollar he does. Halfback - unfortunately, my wish to test viable alternatives is a reaction to what is on the table. I agree that if there are no other options blooded during the RC, halfback comes down to Genia, Phipps and White. The foremost requirement of my 9 is a strong, consistent pass. In the absence of this key skill, I find it difficult to entertain any mitigating positivity towards complimentary attributes (even test caps). Every ruck clearance is a coin toss for Phipps; and too often we lose the coin. As stated, Genia is my clear preference with White (despite some questionable decision-making and on-field emotional imbalance / small dog anger) as my backup. But I would have loved to see Stirzaker (or as a wild card even someone like Ryan Louwrens), get a run in this tournament to test their mettle. We are where we are, and I hope Phipps proves me wrong. Kerevi - yes, a shame to miss the opportunity to test him out. Perhaps Cheika has him in mind for a different RC match / game plan. It will be interesting to see how Cheika uses the Rugby Championship. Beale - "cutting the oranges" in my usage was a reference to playing no part in the match-day squad rather than warming the pine. I am a huge admirer of Beale's rugby skills but simply don't think his current form warrants selection. In years gone by his dynamism on the flanks was eye-watering but - given his re-invention as a 12 - can't see Falou being shifted from 15; particularly given the relative wealth of strong specialist options on the wings.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Not really. Unlike mug punters, test selectors were actually watching the matches. The fact that Cheika dropped Jones and Dennis out of the squad and retained him indicates that he saw something over the 13 matches he played that you didn't see in the 1 or 2 you watched.
Train Without A Station
Roar Guru
Matfield actually made the highest tackles per 80 minutes of any of the regular starters from last test season for the SANZAR natuions with 12.4. Retallick was NZ's best with 12.2 and Hooper Australia's best with 11.2. The only Australian player that appears to better that is Matt Hadgson with 15.7.
etienne marais
Guest
And he is, without doubt, the man for the job. Viva Victor!
etienne marais
Guest
"You only see him at a breakdown if the tackle was made within 3 metres of where he was resting" A really funny comment...picturing it now. (But, of course, like all hyperboles it is not quite true; the actual distance is 5 metres) ;-)
ThugbyFan
Guest
On the money for picking a lock based on his line-out ability, Harry. I see Simmons as a poor man's V.Matfield. I have always been amazed that SA continuously pick the pensioner at lock solely on his line out and weight in the scrum and mauls. You only see him at a breakdown if the tackle was made within 3 metres of where he was resting. That said, Matfield still plays a pretty good game, has the smarts to play to his abilities and is still king of the line-outs. Mind you having Eben Etzebeth as lock partner and the killer back three helps also.
ThugbyFan
Guest
Kane Douglas's partner is preggers so they likely want a more settled life near parents and kin than a rugby "holiday" in the UK. Johnny J-Dawg, the Reds are losing some serious talent and experience for next year and I can think of worse players to get as a replacement than Kane Douglas. He is very close in talent to a WB jersey, certainly a top line Super XVII (dunno what the number is for 2016) and will improve the Red's pack after the 2015 disaster. Sometimes a player's worth is seen when he isn't there, look how NSW Tahs went this year sans one K.Douglas.
ThugbyFan
Guest
Good comments SPS et al. I've always thought, start with the king of steals, steel man Pocock at 7, then sub in the tackling terrier Hooper for the last 15-20 minutes when the other mob are either tired or putting on their 2nd choices. Putting Hooper up as a 7 starter against the monster back-rowers in the Saffer team would be a waste of his talents. The bonus with Hooper on the bench is he covers 12 and 13 as a sub if there is an injury as well as his 7 role. I seem to remember Hooper coming on as a sub 13 in a match, possibly on the 2012 or 2013 EOYT. Maybe in the game against USA, M.Cheika might give Hooper a run at 13 to give him some experience in that position.
ThugbyFan
Guest
I'll second Matthew and welcome the biltongbek back to the Roar. Lets face it, how could he resist not commenting about the SA team. I agree with Harry, Pollard is the real deal. Any way we can entice him over here to be a pretend aussie like Pocock, Jackpot and Clyde Rathbone? :) Prior to the game, it looks a really interesting match up, Cheika's new band of Wallaby Warriors vs the rejigged Saffer Men of Steel but now with some really good backs. I wish both teams luck, no referee balls-up and a nice 8 point win to the Wally bees. I don't want a 50-6 thrashing by either side, that's disrespectful to two damn good teams. Sunday morning we will either be saying "Hallelujah to the new messiah Cheika" or spend another year spewing over the coach, team, Hooper the 7 pretender, Beale's studs and our girly-girly scrums. Harry and Biltong, enjoy the match and may the Pollard be with you.
Dannyray
Guest
Regarding back row selections, ENG are talking about the possibility of Sam Burgess being selected... Now he's obviously a great athlete etc, but how would you guys handle to prospect of Paul Gallen or Corey Parker being selected at #6 ? I'll take our "problems" thanks.
Sofa Coach
Roar Rookie
Crash, your arguments are well presented and extremely difficult to fault and certainly make for far better reading than several of the comments by others in this trail that destroy their own merit when they resort to insult and offence to push their views. (A shame for them, because there are some valid opinions buried under the muck.) I reckon we'd be in bloody good hands if you were a wallaby selector- with one caveat and one exception and one mix of both. George Smith is the caveat. He is without question a great of the game, he offers great bench versatility since he can play every position in the backrow (and even 12 too) and he may be in great form, but I can't comment on that as I haven't seen him play for years and I'd need more evidence than a 30 second YouTube snippet of one hit in a Baa-Baas match to assess this. His only wallaby appearance for many years (Lions 2013) was sadly only memorable for the disgraceful decision by the wallaby medical staff to allow him to play on when the whole world could clearly see that he was out on his feet. So while I agree with you in principle that George is the perfect bench option for that final salvo in the trenches, he needs wallaby game time right now to get re-acclimatised to the set up and to show that he can still compete at the highest level. Stirzaker is the exception. I agree with you on Phipps, but you can't make such a valid argument for tried and tested combatants to be selected for the bench and then in the same breath suggest a bloke who couldn't even provide that same kind of robust certainty for his lower mid table super franchise. Aaron Smith is unquestionably the benchmark scrum half in world rugby and Genia is the only wallaby option with a snowflake's chance in hell of rising to that level. Genia clearly dominated Smith in the Reds vs highlanders rubber last season, but since then no other 9 has come close to the AB star. Genia admittedly has a lot of ground to make up, but he is the only option who could and so he must start for the wallabies for the rest of the year. And with Cooper and Higgers likely to be back either side of him and Skeleton offering a similar target to the one Radike Samo used to provide, I reckon we're a good chance to see the best of Genia since 2011. But if he is going to be covered off the bench in the final 10, it has to be Phipps. Wales and England will have no fear of Phipps, but he is a tireless trier and far better suited to the trench warfare of the final 10 minutes of a must win RWC pool match that you have just described. This is most certainly not the timeand place for testing untried potential. And if Stirzaker is no chance of making the RWC squad- which he isn't- then there is no point wasting extremely valuable RC opportunities looking at him. That can wait until next year. Arnold on the other hand is definitely worth a look at during the RC because there is no such certainty about the wallaby lock selections and he may well prove to be a bolter. And like many other roarers I was disappointed Kerevi didn't get a look in for the same reasons. I can't wait to see how Gits handles his long prayed for homecoming. I was at the millennium stadium last year when Toulon won the Heineken Cup final to farewell Johnny Wilkinson, and he was distinctly one of the best on the field. But he was behind a pack of international superstars and with international superstar backs either side of him and the opposition were most certainly not England, Wales, the ABs or the Boks. He didn't have their relative giants Nonu, SBW, Roberts, JdV, Frans Steyne, Barrett, Burgess, etc charging at him. There is no questioning Giteau's ability, and that Kerevi is not yet of his class, but the arguments against Hooper may also apply here, and so I would agree with the many who feel that it is very worthwhile giving kerevi a run during the RC. Let's hope he gets a shot during the bledisloe. As for Beale and the oranges, that's my mix caveat exception, he's also like hooper for mine- he's either starting or out altogether because he's the wrong option on the bench to bring on for calmness and security and resilience in the final 15min bloodbath. I'll ask you the question- is he better than the two best wingers in the squad? If the answer is yes, then get the best 15 out on the paddock and pick him at fullback and play Folau on the wing. KB's best position is 15 and he has a great boot and provides a long range kicking option (crucial in a very tight RWC pool) and an additional playmaking option (especially valuable if Kerevi were to play 12). Folau can't kick and isn't a playmaker, yes he is great under the high ball but KB is pretty strong there too. If versatility, experience, stoutness and calmness under pressure are what you are looking for on the bench, then if they don't make the starting XV, Gits, AAC and Horne are the best options next to Phipps for the remaining back slots in a 5/3 bench. If the bench is 6/2, Phipps goes with Gits to provide emergency cover if Genia is injured. If AAC doesn't start, as VC it's hard not to see him on the bench at least, most especially if you reckon Hooper is wearing a tie instead of a jersey!
Dannyray
Guest
TWAS: "Many people have not seen Horwill play any good games this year. It’s hard to see something when you’re not watching".... That does't bode well for Horwill then does it. Like I said - I'd love to see him strike some form, but he's got to smarten up to encourage people to actually watch him.
Dannyray
Guest
I think I ruffled his feathers a bit when I told him I thought Kearnsey had his measure... Apparently that was all it took to put him off. Just jokes, he's great fella and despite being a hardnosed Kiwi, pretty fair in his assessment of the game.
Dannyray
Guest
Messa - I went to Millennium as well & recall just feeling confident - until we were buried by ENG. I have the image of A. Serridan in Matt Dunnings face looking like he is about to eat him alive. I didn't have a ticket for the QF because I was certain I needed one for the SF in Paris..... We all got that one very wrong I think. As I've said previously, RWCs ALWAYS offer up a surprise or two.
Machooka
Roar Guru
No wuckers buddy... and as I'm married to a fine Yorkshire girl that 'great credit' hasn't gone un-noticed :)
Birdy
Guest
'.. had we played with ball in hand we’d have run up a score…' I'm fairly sure Knuckles didn't say to the players beforehand. 'Look guys, let's kick good ball away, if we get it, because we don't want to score tries.' What I remember is that the WBs were getting monstered in the set-piece and the breakdown, and didn't have much good ball, and when they tried to run what they did have they were getting knocked back on the advantage line. The idea that the WBs didn't run in a load of tries because they decided on a whim to kick instead of run doesn't strike me as very persuasive.
Birdy
Guest
Thanks, Machooka. Your kindness and sensitivity towards poms is well known up North, and does you great credit.
Birdy
Guest
Absolutely, Hika, can't wait for this one. England will definitely play the WBs and might play the Boks in the QF if they finish 2nd in the group; or might even play the Boks in the fi...No, I'm not even going to say it