So, we took that well. The general reaction to Australia losing the first Ashes Test was shock and rage. It shouldn’t have been.
The Aussie batting line-up has long lacked grit, discipline and respect for match circumstances or conditions. They are front-runners of the highest order, particularly away from home.
If we look at the home series against India last summer, the fourth highest score in each Australian innings averaged out at 50 runs. You can call it a team effort when that’s the case. Things were looking up, everything was in order, with a winning World Cup to come.
Little attention was paid to the fact that India playing Test cricket on Australian shores is about as threatening as a basket full of kittens.
Looking at the the average fourth highest score in an innings across our away series Test matches in 2014-15, from South Africa last year to the Cardiff Test last week, it’s 24.4. This is a team that falls away badly away from home. It lacks resilience.
Chris Rogers is a scrapper and grinder, whose middle name is resilience. We know what we’re going to get from him, he has mastered the art of playing within himself, particularly notable with his neatly contained clips and drives when facing the new ball.
David Warner didn’t have a great World Cup, and has struggled at Test level since, not looking the player he has proven himself to be. He looked a man completely at odds with his game early in his second innings last week, but looked to regain fluency as he went on before a lapse in concentration brought about his downfall on the lunch break.
Warner was playing like a man who didn’t want to be accused of giving his wicket away recklessly, rather than one whose attacking instincts matched with astute shot selection make him one of the most dangerous batsmen in the world. His mental state needs mending if Australia is to get back into the contest.
Steven Smith will make his presence felt throughout the series, but it’s not clear that Michael Clarke will have any significant say.
Clarke played 14 Test innings in 2014, falling for 10 or less in eight of them. In fact, he only made three scores higher than 23 last year. In five Test innings this year he is barely averaging 30. The writing is on the wall – this Michael Clarke is not the all-conquering batsman of 2011-13. He may well be fading fast.
The maturity of Adam Voges was seen as a virtue pre-series, but it wasn’t on display with bat in hand at Cardiff. If he continues to struggle while Australia lose, the ‘Dad’s Army’ jibes will haunt both player and team to the extent that there will be no coming back for either.
Next up is Shane Watson. Poor old Watto.
Selected as a batting all-rounder because of his importance with the ball, he neither makes runs nor takes wickets. His last 13 Tests have seen an average of 32 with the bat, and less than one wicket a Test, 11 in total during that time. Mitch Marsh will surely come in for the second Test.
Even though the first Test dressing room was overflowing with walking frames and Viagra, Darren Lehmann has been known to trust youth or inexperience in his time. We can recall Ashton Agar, Phillip Hughes, Usman Khawaja, James Pattinson and, oh yes, Steve Smith, from his first Ashes series in charge.
He’s not afraid to make the hard calls, and to turn to younger talents when required.
Peter Nevill is 30, so not exactly a teenager, but he is still 15 or 20 years younger than Brad Haddin. So it appeared at times in Cardiff, given the creaky movement of the latter.
The news broke last night that Haddin will not be playing in the second Test, for personal reasons. All thoughts are with his family, and we hope that all is OK on the home front.
The question of Mitch Johnson and Mitch Starc intrigues.
The Australian bowling attack can’t build sustained pressure with both of them in the side, but can it take 20 wickets if they’re not?
In Peter Siddle’s last 12 Test matches, he has taken 26 wickets at an expensive 45 runs per. But if he has rediscovered his zest, he can both contain and be a weapon. The reports from England are promising, so could it be a blessing in disguise if Starc doesn’t come up?
Of course, the other factor that has barely been mentioned across the many articles written post the first Test is arguably the most important of all – the toss.
Australia’s fallibility on slow pitches is more easily exposed when they are chasing from the get-go, and thus forced to also bat last on a wearing pitch. The effects are many and varied, where the opposition can prey on the vulnerabilities and weaknesses already discussed.
Of course, this is tough titties for them, and they get what’s coming to them in that regard. But if Michael Clarke can win the toss at Lord’s, that alone could be enough to suit Australia’s propensity for front-running, and allow them to dictate terms throughout the match.
It’s wrong that any sport should be dictated to as often as cricket is by the random nature of a toss, but so it is.
This Ashes series was never going to be as easy as the betting markets and general consensus had it. Australia is also not doomed to fail like the decisive English victory at Cardiff suggets.
These are two evenly matched teams, and it will be a winning toss here, a dropped catch there, and the ability to capitalise on periods of momentum that will be crucial.
Nothing was won pre-series. And all is not lost now.
Don Freo
Guest
Perhaps watching Nevill play a whole Test will familiarize people with the spelling of his name.
ChrisB
Guest
Neville is an experienced first class player. If he's good enough, he should be able to handle it, regardless of where he makes his debut. Either way, he probably should have played in the Windies. It is time to move on. As for Warmer? He does look confused. Too much over analysis, should stick to his natural game (maybe he reads some of the dafter vments on this site?)
Don Freo
Guest
Bring him back...if he can give certain assurances.
Zim Zam
Roar Rookie
Watto got a 5-fer at Lord's. Just saying.
Andrew
Guest
Even if he fails at attacking some of the time, he will succeed the other times. He is already under the microscope from the media about performance so why not attack and blast some runs.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Some great points in there Art. It does feel that this Ashes series almost like a footy player going on for one season too many, wearied by too many battles. Sometimes setting an end point can give a player energy and focus, for others it can take it away. We might be seeing too much of the latter.
Cameron Rose
Expert
It's a concern Zim Zam, especially if they get after Lyon. Marsh will be used sparingly if he starts to stray too much.
Cameron Rose
Expert
It doesn't say over Rock, so I'm safe! I ended the sentence with "runs per" meaning wickets, which I'd referenced earlier in the sentence. Made sense to me anyway! I'm sure he'll find a way to make a big score or two, but I don't feel safe with him in the way I used to, where you knew more than likely he'd be there for a long time.
Zim Zam
Roar Rookie
Is anyone else scared by the idea of all three Mitches in the same bowling attack? It's not exactly an outfit you'd associate with patience, consistency and control.
Cameron Rose
Expert
Good points. Perhaps he needs to adopt a "shoot first, ask questions later" approach. The problem is, if he fails doing that, the Aussie public won't be very forgiving. Balancing patience and attack is not an easy task for this Australian batting line-up.
rock
Roar Rookie
Cam, I can't believe Siddle has been going for 45 an over - no wonder he was dropped....haha Good article, however I do reckon Clarke has another good spell in him.
CT
Guest
I think Warner is in two minds at present. I have noticed over his past three/four tests that he is far more patient than in the past. He is better to watch actually showing the full face of the bat in defense. Something we had not seen much of since coming into the national side. Warner struggles a bit on Pommie tracks that offer pronounced movement with seam and swing. He must have played and missed a dozen times in the first hour at Cardiff. So he was trying to get on top of the bowling. I would like to see him revert to his old format of attacking the bowling. Not easy against someone like James Anderson or Stuart Broad admittedly. McCullum took on Anderson with some success. Davey should take a few overs to get his eye in and then go big. I think Broad, in particular, will wilt under pressure.
Cameron Rose
Expert
It's almost trite to say it, but Dad's Army did look like they needed an injection of youthful vigour in the first test. Nevill and Marsh will give them that.
CT
Guest
Yes Mr Mediocre has gone. His lives have run out. No more credits Watto. It is sayonara mate. Will he announce his retirement now? I say he will. Mitch Marsh's time has come. A tough baptism of fire for the talented West Aussie coming in after a morale- hurting loss at the home of cricket. against a rampant and confident England.
Cameron Rose
Expert
I thought he struggled badly early in the second innings, but when Cook brought Ali on, it freed him up a little. His 30-40 minutes was much more fluent.
Cameron Rose
Expert
That's a fair call Zim Zam. A tricky situation to debut in anyway, given Haddin's family issues, and trickier still is the place.
art pagonis
Guest
6 Australian Test team members from the losing first Test at Cardiff are over 30 years of age. Ryan Harris broke down and retired prior to Cardiff in a shock revelation about his knee injury. Chris Rogers’ scored a gallant 95 in the first innings there, but mysteriously lost the plot and threw away a hundred….most unlike a player who values his career with the Australian team….and he failed in the 2nd dig with 10. Michael Clarke threw away both innings at Cardiff as if he was playing a T20 or ODI International. Shane Watson just looks like a player with a noose around his neck….and he and his wife have a new born child. And tonight Brad Haddin resigns from the Australian team “for personal reasons”….again. Michael Clarke’s wife is pregnant with their first child. Dave Warner has a little one in the fold and a new wife. All these players have given a huge amount to Australian cricket…which has been returned many times over. Their careers and financial security has been guaranteed and embellished with Big Bash, IPL and multi year contracts with CA. Jumping ship at this point in time would seem very uncharacteristic. There is no more important tour than an Ashes Tour……yet the circumstances are such that the Windies/ Ashes Tour is turning into a case of “who goes next?” In interviews I have seen and heard, Harris, Rogers, Clarke, Watson, Haddin and Warner have not been at all convincing about their futures. It is almost as if this tour was to be a swan song…and the danger of that of course is clearly being realised. These 6 guys might have had enough Test Cricket. They might be tired of being cajoled and prodded to perform in Tests, ODI’s and T20 matches of all manner and kinds. Mitchell Johnson seems to be the exception. He too has a little addition to his family, yet he appears as if he could play Test and ODI’s for years, so fit and determined does he appear. This Tour of England is turning into a nightmare for Rod Marsh and Darren Lehmann and Cricket Australia. The senior citizens are almost all looking decidedly shaky. This is the result of years of denying younger players a shot at the Baggy Green. The constant changing of the guard at Coach and Head selector level, the changing of selectors, the death of Phil Hughes, Series smashings by India, England, Pakistan since 2012, poor T20 results and the rigorous and debilitating World Cup ODI win have placed this Australian team in a precarious position. In a pressurised position. And England can but snigger behind closed doors at the implosion that seems likely to take place. After all, they have seen their own teams implode with the KP Affair and John Trott’s exodus and Graham Swann’s resignation, just to name 3. The Oz team for Lords now is in the lap of the Gods. Whether Starc plays, whether Watson plays, whether there are any more resignations will all play out tomorrow. Pete Nevill is in for Haddin. But how can this Australian team recover equilibrium in time for Thursday’s coin toss remains the question. Players like Cam Bancroft, Pat Cummins, Nevill, Fawad Ahmed and Shaun and Mitch Marsh now are on high alert.
James
Guest
warner was a slogger but somewhere along the line he turned into an explosive batsman who whilst in no way a grafter he is no longer merely a slogger.
Andrew
Guest
I thought Warner in the first innings tried to (get in) and didn't show any confidence or intent. In the second innings, he looked more attacking and fluent and got a 50. It showed me that he just needs to play his normal attacking game and dictate to the bowlers. When he is hitting the middle of the bat, his confidence is up and he then can reel it back by playing more conservative.
Zim Zam
Roar Rookie
For the record, I love Hadds. He's a real character. I really do hope there's nothing too serious going on there. I also think Lords, with the slope and all that, probably wasn't the Test they would have chosen to give Nevill his debut.